Will the Buckeyes or Crimson Tide take the backdoor into the College Football Playoff?
No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) and No. 6 Alabama (10-2) have combined for 11 CFP appearances, and arguably the most-interesting piece of Tuesday's penultimate College Football Playoff rankings will be where the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide are ranked.
Who will be No. 5? No. 7 Tennessee (10-2) – which beat Alabama 52-49 – also has a case, but the Volunteers were virtually eliminated with a 63-38 loss to No. 20 South Carolina on Nov. 19. For the sake of this argument, we're confining it to Ohio State and Alabama – which will be the first two out in Tuesday's rankings.
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Is there a chance to get in? No. 1 Georgia (12-0) and No. 2 Michigan (12-0) are virtual locks at this point, but a loss by either No. 3 TCU (12-0) or No. 4 USC (11-1) on conference championship weekend could open that door.
Which team deserves that backdoor chance more?
Ohio State's case to be No. 5
Yes, the 45-23 loss to Michigan at Ohio Stadium was an unmitigated disaster, but does that define Ohio State's entire body of work? The Buckeyes won 11 games by an average of 25.3 points per game, and they have quality victories against No. 8 Penn State and No. 19 Notre Dame.
Ohio State also is a one-loss team that won every game by double digits before the loss to the Wolverines. The Buckeyes rank second in the FBS at 44.5 points per game, and it's not like Ohio State lost to a bad team. Should the committee consider it a quality loss – even if it's a blowout loss?
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Alabama's rebuttal
That loss was at Ohio Stadium, Michigan was missing its best player and the Buckeyes were outscored 28-3 in the second half. The victories against the Nittany Lions and Irish were nice, but the combined winning percentage of teams Ohio State beat this season is .469. The perception is the SEC presents a tougher schedule than the Big Ten, and in this case, it's a reality.
Alabama's case to be No. 5
It's true Alabama has two losses. The 52-49 loss to Tennessee hurt, and the 32-31 overtime loss at LSU kept the Crimson Tide out of the SEC championship game. That said, the Crimson Tide played four straight teams with at least eight wins, and they beat No. 25 Mississippi State and Ole Miss between those losses. The victory against No. 21 Texas is comparable to Ohio State's victory against Notre Dame.
Alabama ranked fifth in the FBS with 40.8 points per game, and the combined winning percentage of the FBS teams they beat was .509. Would Alabama have lost to anybody on Ohio State's schedule?
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Ohio State's rebuttal
Why does Alabama deserve special treatment for losing twice? The Crimson Tide ranked 127th in the FBS with 74.4 penalty yards per game, and the simple truth is they made too many mistakes in those losses to Tennessee and LSU. Is Alabama really going to claim a 20-19 victory at Texas as a signature victory?
Verdict: Ohio State will be No. 5
Remember this debate in 2017? Alabama finished 11-1 and lost the Iron Bowl. Ohio State won the Big Ten championship but finished 11-2 with a non-conference loss to Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide won that argument.
The CFP committee will debate whether Alabama's two walk-off losses on the road weigh more than Ohio State's blowout loss at home. In the end, this argument will favor the Buckeyes. The victory at Penn State – a team that finished 10-2 and also will make the New Year's Day Six – will be a difference-maker. That is why Ohio State should be ranked No. 5 – and they should stay there based on the fact that neither the Buckeyes nor Crimson Tide will play on conference championship weekend.
If either USC or TCU loses, then it's Ohio State that should slip into the playoff. Remember, no two-loss team has made the playoff, and when the emotion of the Buckeyes' loss to Michigan wears off, the committee will keep Ohio State in the top four at that point.
What happens if USC and TCU both lose? Well, there might be room for the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide. The only argument then will be whether they play Michigan or Georgia.
