Alabama is down. But is it out of the College Football Playoff race?
The Crimson Tide — the only team to make every College Football Playoff so far — ranked No. 5 in the penultimate set of CFP rankings before Sunday's selection show. Alabama also will sit out conference championship weekend for the first time since 2013.
MORE: Alabama vs. Ohio State: Who would deserve fourth playoff spot?
"We did believe this week that we got the top four identified," College Football Playoff Committee chair Kirby Hocutt said on the ESPN telecast. "We had the top four teams there. … There were a clear-cut top four teams in this week's discussion."
Nick Saban and Alabama are down, but the Tide have the most outs of any team on the outside looking in — or, at the least, the most arguments to create within the committee. The first team out isn't the worst place to be right now.
How does Alabama get back in? Here's a conference-by-conference breakdown:
Big 12: If TCU beats Oklahoma, it's unlikely the two-loss, 11th-ranked Horned Frogs could gain enough ground to catch Alabama. But it would drop the Sooners behind the Tide.
ACC: Miami is suddenly no longer a lock for the playoff, even if it beats Clemson — not after that embarrassing loss to Pitt. Miami dropped to No. 7 in the rankings after said loss, and it's not scripture that they would leapfrog the Tide. Remember, both teams are 11-1 right now.
SEC: This is a tough one. Auburn would drop out with a loss to Georgia, but a Tigers win would ensure the Bulldogs couldn't leapfrog the Crimson Tide. If Alabama's only blemish is a road loss to a playoff team, that's a compelling case.
Pac-12: Neither USC nor Stanford will catch Alabama, no matter what happens in the Pac-12 conference championship game.
Big Ten: Here's the big one. Alabama should root for Wisconsin to win if TCU beats Oklahoma earlier in the day. But if the Sooners win, it's better to have Ohio State win the Big Ten championship and dare the committee to leap them from No. 8 to No. 4. It would take something in the neighborhood of, say, a 59-0 blowout. Based on where Alabama sits in the No. 5 spot, that's a lot of ground for the Buckeyes to cover. The best-case scenario would be an ugly Buckeyes' victory. The more controversial, the better.
MORE: Week 14 playoff rankings
Alabama vs. Ohio State is the argument to end all arguments, and it will be close. There are precedents from 2014, 2015 and 2016 involving the Buckeyes. This one could be completely different. The biggest disadvantage for the Tide? Alabama will be out of sight. The ACC, SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten champions all have a chance to make one last impression. We'll find out the weight of those conference championships.
Still, it's Alabama. It only has one loss, and it's not flagrant. Would that brand recognition be enough to get the Crimson Tide in? It could happen.
That's where Alabama stands now. Down for now. But out?
We'll believe that only after the final rankings are released.
