Will the Crimson Tide endure a three-year drought in the College Football Playoff?
No. 8 Alabama (11-1) must beat No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship at 4 p.m. on Saturday on CBS. By that time, the Crimson Tide will know what happened with No. 7 Texas. Alabama did get help with No. 3 Washington beating No. 5 Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game Friday.
- Pac-12: No. 3 Washington 34, No. 5 Oregon 31
- Big 12: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC)
- SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
- ACC: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 14 Louisville (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)
- Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. vs. No. 16 Iowa (Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX)
In what has become an annual tradition, Alabama coach Nick Saban might have to do some politicking to get the Crimson Tide into the CFP conversation even with a victory against Georgia.
The Bulldogs are 5.5-point favorites against Alabama in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, so all of this might be a moot point. Yet Alabama does have a path back to the CFP if they knock off the top-ranked team in the country.
MORE: CFP scenarios, from chalk to chaos
Can Alabama still make College Football Playoff?
The Crimson Tide are one of eight Power 5 teams with one loss or less heading into conference championship weekend. No two-loss team has ever made the four-team College Football Playoff.
Alabama has options with a victory against Georgia, but this would be the preferred scenario for the other four championship games:
Washington beats Oregon in Pac-12 championship
Alabama got this piece in their favor. Washington beat Oregon in the Pac-12 championship on Friday, and that knocks the Ducks into the two-loss pileup and out of the CFP picture.
Oklahoma State beats Texas in Big 12 championship
This would make life easier in a lot of ways for Alabama, because Texas has a 34-24 head-to-head non-conference victory against the Crimson Tide. The Longhorns would have two losses at that point, so there would be nothing to discuss.
Iowa beats Michigan in Big Ten championship
While this is the most-unlikely result, it could knock the Big Ten out of the CFP. Alabama is ranked behind No. 6 Ohio State – a one-loss team, but the Crimson Tide would leap-frog them with a victory against Georgia. The committee also would take an SEC champion over a one-loss Michigan team.
Louisville beats Florida State in ACC championship
Every one-loss team is rooting for the Cardinals to knock off the Seminoles, which would free up one of the four spots in the CFP.
MORE: Bowl projections | Championship games picks
Two Alabama College Football Playoff debates
If the above scenario unfolds, then the Crimson Tide would be in the CFP. Even if Michigan wins, Alabama would have a case with a Florida State loss.
Now, depending on how the other games shake out, these potential head-to-head arguments could happen over the weekend.
Alabama (12-1) vs. Texas (12-1)
Scenario No. 3 is the one everyone could be talking about. Washington, Florida State and Michigan win. Texas wins, too. That means there are three unbeatens and the committee must pick among the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs for the fourth spot. Texas beat Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Sept. 9. No matter how you try to talk around that, it might not happen for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)
If Saban cannot win the argument with Texas, then would he try to target Florida State instead? The Seminoles might be playing with a backup quarterback in Tate Rodamaker, but they beat LSU in Week 1. That victory would be worth cashing in at this point.
Alabama strength of schedule
According to ESPN, the Crimson Tide rank sixth in the Football Power Index. Texas is No. 7. Alabama has three victories against ranked teams this season, but none of those were top-10 victories. Georgia would be the signature victory on the schedule.
Alabama strength of record
According to ESPN, the Crimson Tide rank No. 7 in strength of record. Texas is No. 6 in those rankings. Those are comparable totals, but again, the matchup against Georgia would carry much more weight on conference championship weekend. It is the chance for an ultimate signature victory.
Will Alabama make College Football Playoff?
Oregon lost. Seeing at least one of Texas or Florida State lose would be helpful for the Crimson Tide. There is the power of the SEC at work, and the emotional response by the committee to seeing Alabama beat Georgia might be enough on its own. The SEC is the only conference that has put a team in the CFP every single year.
If Alabama beats Georgia, then the arguments around those other conferences would get heated. Yet Florida State as an unbeaten team would still theoretically have the drop on the Crimson Tide. So would Texas based on the head-to-head victory. That could heat up quickly knowing Michigan likely will not lose in the Big Ten.
