This story has been updated from a previous version.
A Rivalry Week slate fraught with chaos has created the possibility, however small, that a team previously out of College Football Playoff contention could still somehow make the top four.
And all it took was losses by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Clemson in the penultimate week of the season for Alabama to have a chance — but only the right set of circumstances.
Nick Saban and Co. aren't technically out of the Playoff picture, but Alabama's placement at No. 6 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings gives it a harder path to championship contention. Ohio State, ranked fifth, needed only one of the four teams in front of them to lose this weekend. Alabama needed two, and even then it's not a given.
It should be noted that no two-loss team has ever made the Playoff, especially one that hasn't played during conference championship weekend. Alabama may not control its Playoff destiny, but it has nothing to lose this week as it awaits its Playoff destiny.
MORE: College Football Playoff rankings: Who are the top four teams in fifth CFP poll of 2022?
Here's how Alabama could potentially make the CFP, depending on the outcome of this week's games:
Can Alabama still make College Football Playoff?
Technically, yes. But without the ability to play its way in, Alabama's chances of making it in entering the weekend were only 14.1 percent, per ESPN — only 5 percentage points fewer than No. 4 USC, which has now seen its hopes dashed with a loss to Utah in Friday's Pac-12 championship game.
Indeed, the Trojans — and another team — are central to Alabama's Playoff chances.
USC loss to Utah
For Alabama to make it in, it needed both TCU and USC to fall in conference championship weekend. The Trojans' ugly 47-24 defeat to No. 11 Utah provided the first of the dominoes that could allow the Crimson Tide to make it in.
While one-loss Ohio State stands to be the prime beneficiary from that result as it entered the weekend at No. 5 in the rankings, the door is now cracked a bit wider for Alabama. The Tide still needed some more help, however.
BENDER: What USC's loss to Utah means for Ohio State, Alabama
TCU loss to Kansas State
TCU ranked at No. 3 in the latest CFP rankings, guaranteeing the Horned Frogs would make it in with a win over No. 10 Kansas State. But they lost 31-28 in overtime, ending the undefeated season in the Big 12 championship game.
Now, it's up to the College Football Playoff committee on what to do with TCU and Alabama.
The best case scenario for Crimson Tide fans is that Alabama vaults up to No. 4 in the rankings. Saban's squad was already behind the Buckeyes, so the highest it could get at this point would be fourth.
The other option at this point is that the committee moves Alabama up to five, but keeps them behind both Ohio State and TCU. The Horned Frogs lost only one game, coming in overtime in the conference championship against No. 13 Kansas State, and the committee would say the narrow loss wasn't enough to move Alabama all the way up.
The Crimson Tide got the two losses it needed to be in the discussion. Now it's up to the committee to decide whether the losses were enough.
MORE: Alabama or Ohio State? Who should be No. 5 in College Football Playoff rankings
Alabama strength of schedule
At least one clear advantage Alabama has over USC and TCU is its strength of schedule. The Crimson Tide have the eighth-ranked schedule in the country, significantly ahead of TCU (35th) and USC (57th).
Alabama's SOS metric also compares favorably to Ohio State (34th), but the committee has already made its decision to favor the Buckeyes by placing them fifth in the penultimate CFP rankings.
Alabama strength of record
Alabama also has an impressive strength of record, ranking fifth overall nationally (behind TCU, Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State, respectively). The Crimson Tide's SOR metric is the highest among two-loss teams and ahead of USC (sixth).
Where Alabama has potentially its biggest hurdle is its SOR comparison to TCU, which ranks as the strongest in the nation. Even after the Horned Frogs' loss, it is still only one loss. That may be enough to drop them out of the top four, it remains to be seen whether that would be enough to vault Alabama in.
