The College Football Playoff race has one week left.
Four conference championship games will decide how those four pieces fit in the final week of the season. Three unbeaten teams remain in No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 TCU. No. 4 USC is the top-one loss team, and the two teams on the outside looking in — Ohio State and Alabama – will not play this weekend.
MORE: Bowl projections | Against the spread picks for championship weekend
So it comes down to four conference championship games. Here are the games to keep eye on this weekend:
- Pac-12: No. 4 USC vs. No. 11 Utah (Friday 8 p.m., FOX)
- Big 12: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Kansas State (Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC)
- SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
- Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. Purdue (Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX)
Those games create seven scenarios that could unfold. Here is a look at the College Football Playoff scenarios heading into conference championship weekend, from chalk to chaos:
College Football Playoff Scenarios
Playoff scenario No. 1: Chalk
-USC beats Utah
-TCU beats Kansas State
-Georgia beats LSU
-Michigan beats Purdue
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. Michigan (13-0)
- 3. TCU (13-0)
- 4. USC (12-1)
Left out: Ohio State (11-1), Alabama (10-2)
This means a drama-free weekend with no upsets, but it gives the College Football Playoff three unbeaten teams and four Power 5 conference champions – just like 2019-20. Georgia takes on USC in the Chick-fil-A Peach bowl, and Michigan takes on TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. It’s clean, easy and does not require much debate about who belongs.
Playoff scenario No. 2: USC loses
-Utah beats USC
-TCU beats Kansas State
-Georgia beats LSU
-Michigan beats Purdue
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. Michigan (13-0)
- 3. TCU (13-0)
- 4. Ohio State (11-1)
Left out: USC (11-2), Alabama (10-2)
If Utah beats USC, then the Pac-12 playoff drought – which stretches to 2016 – will continue. This is where that Ohio State-Alabama argument will kick in. Which team would be more deserving of that final playoff spot? These two schools have combined for 11 playoff appearances, so it would get hot. We think the committee keeps a two-loss team out and rewards the Buckeyes for their victories against Notre Dame and Penn State. It’s a fun playoff, too, with a tease for a possible Ohio State-Michigan rematch.
Playoff scenario No. 3: TCU loses
-USC beats Utah
-Kansas State beats TCU
-Georgia beats LSU
-Michigan beats Purdue
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. Michigan (13-0)
- 3. USC (12-1)
- 4. TCU (12-1) or Ohio State (11-1)
Left out: Alabama (10-2)
Another playoff argument between the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes? It’s coming if TCU loses to No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 championship. What if the Horned Frogs lose a close game? Would that be enough to hold off Ohio State – whose 45-23 loss to Michigan is still fresh in memory? After all, the Horned Frogs have piled up four victories against ranked opponents. Ohio State won 11 games by an average of 25.3 points per game. The only teams with larger margins are Michigan (27.2) and Georgia (26.4). This time, the Buckeyes would have a real chance to bypass TCU again – albeit in a far-different manner than 2014.
Playoff scenario No. 4: TCU and USC lose
-Utah beats USC
-Kansas State beats TCU
-Georgia beats LSU
-Michigan beats Purdue
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. Michigan (13-0)
- 3. Ohio State (11-1)
- 4. TCU (12-1) or Alabama (10-2)
Left out: USC (11-2)
A Michigan-Ohio State rematch in the CFP semifinals. ESPN will take that all day knowing 17 million people watched the regular-season finale on FOX. The Trojans are out, but the Horned Frogs would be in another sticky debate – this time with Alabama. Would TCU’s strength of schedule be questioned against the Crimson Tide? Alabama’s best victory is No. 20 Texas. The Horned Frogs beat the Longhorns, too, and they probably win this argument. It is Alabama, however, so who knows.
Playoff scenario No. 5: Michigan loses
-USC beats Utah
-TCU beats Kansas State
-Georgia beats LSU
-Purdue beats Michigan
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. TCU (13-0)
- 3. USC (12-1)
- 4. Michigan (12-1)
Left out: Ohio State (11-1), Alabama (10-2)
This doesn’t help the Buckeyes, believe it or not. Unless Purdue were to hammer the Wolverines in the Big Ten championship, Michigan would still have the head-to-head victory at Ohio Stadium. This would shake up the seeding a little bit, and perhaps set up a rematch between the Wolverines and Bulldogs earlier than expected. Either TCU or USC would make the CFP championship game at that point. Who had that in August? This is pretty much the same scenario if Georgia loses to LSU. Just flip the Wolverines and Bulldogs at that point.
Playoff scenario No. 6: Everyone loses but Georgia
-Utah beats USC
-TCU beats Kansas State
-Georgia beats LSU
-Purdue beats Michigan
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (13-0)
- 2. Michigan (12-1)
- 3. Ohio State (11-1)
- 4. TCU (12-1) or Alabama (10-2)
Left out: USC (11-2)
This is almost identical to scenario No. 4, and it would kick up the Alabama-TCU argument again. If TCU were to suffer a blowout loss, would that be enough to prompt the committee into taking that Georgia-Alabama blockbuster matchup in Atlanta? There might be enough chaos here to give that opening for the Crimson Tide to play in the Try-To-Beat-Georgia Invitational.
Playoff scenario No. 7: Everyone loses but TCU
-Utah beats USC
-TCU beats Kansas State
-LSU beats Georgia
-Purdue beats Michigan
Who’s in?
- 1. TCU (13-0)
- 2. Georgia (12-1)
- 3. Michigan (12-1)
- 4. Ohio State (11-1)
Left out: USC (11-2), Alabama (10-2)
The Horned Frogs get the No. 1 seed. Would the committee let them pick their opponent at that point? Georgia and Michigan would slide into a semifinal matchup, and the committee likely would take the Buckeyes over the Crimson Tide and Trojans. We get to see TCU and Ohio State settle their 2014 CFP beef on the field instead. The crazy part? The Buckeyes would be favored. This likely would be the same scenario if USC won and everybody else lost. Just put the Trojans on top.
Playoff scenario No. 8: Chaos
-Utah beats USC
-Kansas State beats TCU
-LSU beats Georgia
-Purdue beats Michigan
Who’s in?
- 1. Georgia (12-1)
- 2. Michigan (12-1)
- 3. TCU (12-1)
- 4. Ohio State (11-1)
Left out: USC (11-2), Alabama (10-2)
This is almost identical to scenario No. 2, but it would intensify the Ohio State-Alabama argument because nobody has a conference championship. It also would also create discussions about the upcoming CFP and the role of conference championship games. Utah, Kansas State, Purdue and LSU all have three losses. Will they be deserving when this goes to a 12-team setup?
