Group of 5 early conference primer: Biggest games, Heisman hopefuls and one big prediction

UCF didn't claim a national championship in 2018, but the Knights' 25-game win streak did accelerate discussions of expansion to more inclusive College Football Playoff — even for the Group of 5 conferences.  

The Knights have played in the New Year's Day Six each of the last two seasons, and the Group of 5 conferences have a 3-2 record in that bowl game. UCF, however, isn't the only American Athletic Conference or Group of 5 school that could make that run in 2019.

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Here’s a closer look at the best of the Group of 5: 

Way-too-early ranked teams

17. UCF 

Biggest Group of 5 storyline

The continued fight against the Power 5 gap. The current bowl system doesn't allow for many shots at the Power 5, and Group of 5 schools finished 2-5 in bowl games against Power 5 and independent schools last season. Fresno State and Cincinnati scored big wins against Arizona State and Virginia Tech, respectively, but those didn't weigh more than UCF's loss to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. In order to keep that Playoff expansion talk rolling, Group of 5 teams need to score big nonconference regular-season and bowl victories — and it wouldn't hurt if another UCF emerged this season. 

Top Group of 5 busters

UCF. The Knights aren't going anywhere, and there's quarterback intrigue in Orlando with the addition of Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, who will fight for the starting job even if McKenzie Milton (leg) returns healthy. Josh Heupel returns a team capable of returning to the New Year's Day Six. 

Cincinnati. The Bearcats finished 11-2 and won the Military Bowl last season. Luke Fickell brings back a lot of talent for another run in the AAC. Quarterback Desmond Ridder will be at the center of that, along with Michael Warren II, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2018.  

UAB. Bill Clark won Sporting News Coach of the Year honors after leading the Blazers to the Conference USA championship last year Star running back Spencer Brown returns after rushing for 1,247 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2018. UAB should have continued this season. 

Boise State. The Broncos are a perennial contender on this list, but they will move on from quarterback Brett Rypien and star running back Alexander Mattison, who left early for the NFL Draft. This will be a challenge for a program that is used to reloading.  

Fresno State. Jeff Tedford has the Bulldogs rolling again. Fresno State is 22-6 the last two seasons, but the offense has to replace Marcus McMaryion and KeeSean Johnson. If the defense –— which allowed just 14.1 points per game last season — sticks, then the Bulldogs will be fine.  

Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have the best record among Group of 5 schools the last four seasons (41-11), but Scott Satterfield has moved on to ­Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz is in, and he inherits an offense that returns the explosive offensive trio of Zac Thomas, Darrynton Evans and Corey Sutton.  

Ohio. The Bobcats have knocked on the door for a MAC East championship under Frank Solich the last two seasons, and with Nathan Rourke they have a dynamic quarterback who has 40 passing touchdowns and 36 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons. Can the Bobcats win the MAC championship, which has eluded the program since 1968?

MORE: How should Playoff expand to eight teams?

Impact coaching hire in Group of 5

Dana Holgorsen, Houston. It's not just the move from the Big 12 to the AAC. It's the money Houston forked over — which ranges from $3.4 million to $4.3 million through 2023 — that shows a commitment to paying upper-tier coaching talent. Holgorsen will win games, too. That's a big precedent for other Group of 5 schools to follow. 

Jake Spavital, Texas State. After stints as an offensive coordinator at Texas A&M, Cal and West Virginia, the 33-year-old takes on his first head coaching job. That should energize an offense that ranked 122nd in the FBS with 19.8 points per game.    

Best Group of 5 nonconference games

Fresno State at USC (Aug. 31). If the Bulldogs are going to make a statement early in the season, there’s no better place to do it than the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  

Boise State vs. Florida State (Aug. 31). The Broncos are no stranger to the big neutral-site opener, and this is a chance to knock off the Seminoles in their backyard at Jacksonville.  

Cincinnati at Ohio State (Sept. 7). Fickell returns to his alma mater to take on the Buckeyes and new coach Ryan Day. That should add another layer to an in-state game that has had a few close calls in the past.  

Stanford at UCF (Sept. 14). The Knights beefed up their schedule with this game against a traditional Pac-12 contender, and this is a way to keep building equity with the College Football Playoff committee, especially after the LSU loss.  

Houston vs. Washington State (Sept. 13). A Friday night special at NRG Stadium. The coaching matchup between Holgorsen and Mike Leach is worth the price of admission. What is the over/under on passes thrown? 

Appalachian State at South Carolina (Nov. 9). The Mountaineers also play North Carolina on Sept. 21. Imagine if App State can pull off that Carolinas sweep.

MORE: 19 early questions for 2019 season

Bold early prediction for Group of 5

The American Athletic Conference will continue to improve — Rod Carey to Temple was another sound hire — but that is going to make it more difficult to have an undefeated team in the conference. Can UCF do it again? They can, but we need to see how the quarterback battle shakes out with Wimbush and Milton. 

Four-year trends: Best Group of 5 records