Updated 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Champion Odds: Houston, Purdue, and Alabama pegged as odds on favorites

Now that football season's wrapped up, it's time for bettors to shift more of their attention toward the hardwood. In the college hoops world, we're only 27 days away from Selection Sunday, so now's a perfect time to study up on the NCAA futures board.

We've seen a fairly big shift in the futures market from the start of the season, as two of the three preseason favorites, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and North Carolina Tar Heels (both sat at +900), now sit with +2500 and +4000 odds, respectively. Conversely, the Purdue Boilermakers, who entered the season with a +4500 price tag, have the second-best odds of cutting down the nets in Houston come early April at +800.

Below, we’ll break down the three current odds-on favorites, two sleeper schools, and a long shot who could make a run during March Madness.

2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Champion Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Favorites

Houston Cougars +600 (implied probability 14.29 percent)

At 6-1, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars sit as the odds on favorites in search of their first National Championship in school history. Houston also sits atop Ken Pomeroy's College Basketball Ratings, boasting the nation's fifth most efficient offense (120.8 points scored per 100 possessions) and eighth most efficient defense (90.3 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Despite being in the AAC (KenPom's eighth strongest conference), the Cougars profile as a team that's built for a deep run in March Madness. It took a brutal shooting output for the Cougars to get knocked out in the Elite Eight last season, and that was when the 'Cougs were down two key backcourt pieces in Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark.

This year's team is even more efficient on the offensive end, as 6-8 freshman forward Jarace Walker (11.5 ppg, 49 FG%) is a matchup nightmare who also poses a threat from the perimeter (54.3 eFG%). In addition, Houston is relentless on the offensive glass, rebounding 37.9 percent of its missed shots (fourth in NCAA) while playing clean basketball (15 percent turnover rate). On defense, the Cougars almost always double the post on catches, which results in opponents attempting three-pointers on 46.3 percent of their shots (355th in NCAA). It's worked so far, as opponents have connected on just 26.5 percent of those attempts, good for the third-lowest three-point scoring rate in college basketball.

With the Cougars pegged as double-digit favorites in five of their final six regular season games, they likely receive a No.1 seed come Selection Sunday. That being said, it's still tough to recommend a bet on the Cougars to win it all with a 6-1 price tag, as you might be better off taking the Cougars on the spread in each of their tournament games, instead. The market's identified the Cougars as the team with the highest chance of cutting down the nets, so there's not much of an edge in betting them to actually do just that.

Purdue Boilermakers +800 (implied probability 11.11 percent)

Right behind the Cougars sit the 23-3 Purdue Boilermakers, who just dropped to No. 3 in the AP poll following an upset loss to Northwestern this past Sunday. Head coach Matt Painter has significantly outperformed preseason expectations, as his bunch was priced at 45-1 to win it all and is now sitting at just 8-1. 

Purdue's led by 7-4 junior center Zach Edey (22.2 ppg, 62.8 FG%), the overwhelming favorite to take home National Player of the Year honors. Edey's a walking double-double who has phenomenal touch for someone of his stature and can drop upwards of 30-plus points on any given night. While Edey's been a significant component in the Boilermakers' successes, their freshman backcourt of Braden Smith (9.9 ppg, 47 FG%) and Fletcher Loyer (12.2 ppg, 38.5 FG%) play at a level well beyond that of a freshman.

Despite some late-game miscues in their most recent loss to the Wildcats in Evanston, Purdue still has a multi-game lead in the Big Ten standings. Assuming the Boilermakers close out the regular-season strong, even if they were to get upset in the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten tournament, it's likely Purdue still receives a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday. Purdue hasn't reached the Final Four since 1980 but has as good of a shot as ever to end its 40-plus-year drought.

Since Purdue sat at 45-1 to cut down the nets in the preseason, betting them now at their peak price is tough to recommend. If you believe Purdue cruises through the rest of their regular season slate, parlaying that with a Big Ten Tournament Championship, then betting on the Boilermakers at 8-1 is worthwhile. I'm not sure that'll transpire, so chances are they'll still be priced closer to 8-1 at the beginning of the tournament.

Alabama Crimson Tide +900 (implied probability 10.00 percent)

The Crimson Tide returned to the top spot in the AP Top 25 today, as Nate Oats' bunch realistically has the highest ceiling of any team in college basketball this season. With future lottery selection Brandon Miller (18.8 ppg, 45.5 FG%) playing alongside veteran guard Mark Sears (14.0 ppg, 43.5 FG%) and fellow freshman Jaden Bradley (7.9 ppg, 43.8 FG%) in the backcourt, this team has a plethora of guards who can create off the bounce alongside big men who can stretch the floor.

Alabama suffered two of its three losses before the new year, both to respective opponents on neutral courts (Connecticut and Gonzaga). The Crimson Tides' most recent loss to Oklahoma in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge was a day Oats' team just didn't get off the bus, allowing a Sooners offense that ranks 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency to score 93 points on 1.26 points per possession. Since that loss to Oklahoma on Jan. 28, Alabama's won four straight SEC games by an average margin of 23.25 points.

While KenPom's rating index has the Crimson Tide as a better defensive team, from the eye test it looks like this team's a bit more efficient on the offensive end of the floor. Their ability to play with pace and space and do so effectively can result in a National Championship run from Oats' bunch. We profiled the Crimson Tide as a sleeper in the preseason when they were sitting at a 50-1 price tag, and now they're 9-1; the market's correctly assessed how good this team is. Oh, and they also have a six-point road win over Houston on their resume. One could make a case that Alabama's odds should be better than Houston's and Purdue's, and we agree. 

2023 NCAA Tournament Sleepers

Texas Longhorns +2000 (implied probability 4.76 percent)

Despite having to let go of head coach Chris Beard in January, Texas has yet to skip a beat and is a real threat to make a run in the tournament under interim coach Rodney Terry. The Longhorns are trending towards receiving a No. 2 seed in the tournament, giving them a real chance to return to their first Final Four since 2003.

Texas is an experienced (seventh in D-1 experience), guard-oriented bunch with three key backcourt pieces (Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter, Sir'Jabari Rice) who pair nicely with do-it-all senior wing Timmy Allen. The Longhorns have enough capable shot-makers who can lead them to a deep run if they're all clicking at the right time. Texas doesn't have many big bodies, though, and it shows with their rebounding numbers. Texas ranks 159th in offensive rebounding rate and 201st in defensive rebounding rate, needing frontcourt pieces Christian Bishop and Dylan Disu to do their part on the glass. If Texas gets a favorable enough draw, they could make some noise and are an intriguing sleeper pick at +2000.

TCU Horned Frogs +3500 (implied probability 2.78 percent)

TCU's another sleeper team whose odds to win the National Title are undervalued right now due to injuries to starting guard Mike Miles (hyperextended knee) and center Eddie Lampkin (high ankle sprain). TCU's dropped four of its past five games, but when fully-healthy, this team can beat anyone on a neutral court.

TCU owns road wins over Kansas (by 23) and Baylor and meets the criteria as a team built for the Big Dance (plays with pace on offense, has closers who can finish games, is a sound defensive team, doesn't turn the ball over much on offense but forces turnovers on defense).

With Miles and Lampkin likely to be back before the start of the Big 12 Tournament, now might be the time to buy low on the Horned Frogs at 35-1. Even without Miles and Lampkin, TCU was so close to notching a home win over Baylor this past Saturday but melted down in crunch time without their two primary closers. 

More NCAA Tournament Champion sleepers to consider: Indiana (+3000), Creighton (+3000); Marquette (+3500)

2023 NCAA Tournament Long Shot

Missouri Tigers +15000 (implied probability 0.66 percent)

In Dennis Gates' first season as head coach at Missouri, the Tigers are well on their way to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in a half-decade, a feat many thought was inconceivable when the Tigers were picked to finish 11th in the conference's preseason media poll.

Missouri boasts a strong resume, having already notched wins over Illinois, Kentucky, Iowa State, and most recently, Tennessee. The Tigers also rank fourth in Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency metric, scoring 121 points per 100 possessions. Between guards DeAndre Gholston, D'Moi Hoge, Isiaih Mosley, and wings Kobe Brown and Noah Carter, this team simply gets buckets.

Similar to Texas, they don't have much size and could be taken advantage of on the glass by a team with a stronger frontcourt, but if their shots are falling it'll be tough to knock out the high-flying Tigers. Honestly, a 150-1 price tag is beyond disrespectful for a team SN's projecting to be a No. 6 seed in its most recent bracket prediction.

More NCAA Tournament Champion long shots to consider: Villanova (+25000); Florida Atlantic (+25000)