Following an impressive 65-52 win over fifth-seeded Duke in the Round of 32, Rick Barnes' Tennessee Volunteers look to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010, but it won't come easy against Dusty May's 33-3 Florida Atlantic Owls (9:00 p.m. ET, TBS). The Owls punched their first-ever ticket to the second weekend after a 78-70 victory over a relentless Farleigh Dickinson bunch, and have aspirations of keeping their dream season alive.
Although they closed as 3.5-point underdogs to Duke, Tennessee looked like the clear favorite. The Vols' operated as the aggressor and relied on their elite defense to out-physical the Blue Devils. Tennessee held Duke to a season- and NCAA Tournament-low 52 points on just 0.85 points per possession while forcing 14 turnovers. While the nation's most efficient defense per KenPom (87 points allowed per 100 possessions) is capable of shutting down any offense, generating consistent scores has proved to be challenging for Tennessee.
Senior forward Olivier Nkamhoua's career day (27 points, 10-of-13 shooting) helped nix those deficiencies, as Tennessee scored 1.07 points per possession. That type of offensive efficiency could lead the Volunteers to their first National Championship in school history if they're able to maintain it. Fellow senior Santiago Vescovi also did his part, scoring 14 points while raining in four three-pointers to give the Volunteers ample breathing room in the second half.
After a fairly fortunate opening-round win over Memphis, Florida Atlantic outlasted tournament darlings Farleigh Dickinson behind an all-time performance from lead guard Johnell Davis (29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, five steals). Davis' 29-12-5-5 stat line was the first 25-10-5-5 game in NCAA Tournament history, as the Indiana native put the Owls on his back down the stretch, just as he's done all season.
After jumping out to an early 27-16 first-half lead, the Owls trailed by five points with 12 minutes to play. Given the crisp pace of the game (73 total possessions), FAU made up the deficit fairly quickly, but credit to Tobin Anderson's bunch for pulling off the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history and nearly parlaying that with a second-round win.
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Here's everything to know about betting on Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.
Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic odds
Per BetMGM, Tennessee currently sits as a 5.5-point favorite with a low total of 129.5. The Volunteers' moneyline price of -250 gives it an implied win probability of 71.43 percent, while Florida Atlantic's moneyline price of +200 gives it an implied win probability of 33.33 percent.
- Spread: Tennessee -5.5 (-105); Florida Atlantic +5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 129.5 (-110); UNDER 129.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -250; Florida Atlantic +200
Three betting trends to watch
— Florida Atlantic boasts a profitable ATS 20-11 ATS record this season but failed to cover in their Round of 32 matchup against FDU as 15.5-point favorites.
— While Tennessee hasn't been a profitable ATS team this season assuming -110 juice (18-17 ATS), the Volunteers have done their part when pegged as a -250 favorite or better. The Vols have gone 18-4 straight up when priced at -250 or lower on the moneyline.
— Albeit a small sample size, Florida Atlantic's boasted a 66.7-percent cover rate in games it closed as underdogs in (4-2 ATS).
Tennessee key players
Tennessee has utilized a nine-man rotation through its first two NCAA Tournament games since lead guard Zakai Zeigler suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. The Vols' scoring offense is relatively balanced, with three players outside Ziegler averaging double-figures (Josiah Jordan-James, Nkamhoua, Vescovi). Reserve guards Tyreke Key and Julian Phillips are their top scoring options off the bench, while Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka are two of the better backup bigs in college basketball. Nkamhou and 7-1 Uros Plavsic make up the Vols starting front court, but all four bigs can get the job done while on the floor.
Florida Atlantic key players
Davis (13.9 ppg, 50 FG%) and fellow guard Alijah Martin (13.1 ppg, 42.9 FG%) lead the Owls in scoring, while center Vladislav Goldin is the other Owl averaging double-figures (10.4 ppg). Off the bench, reserve forward Giancarlo Rosado will be tasked with holding his own on the glass against a physical Tennessee bunch. Guards Jalen Gaffney and Brandon Weatherspoon are reliable bench pieces who can score off the bounce when Davis and Martin need a breather.
Best individual matchup: Johnell Davis vs. Josiah Jordan-James
Tennessee can ill-afford to let Davis stuff the stat sheet on Thursday night, so look for them to put the 6-6 senior guard on Davis to keep him in check. In FAU's three losses this season, Davis has shot just 33 percent from two-point territory, well under his average of 54.6 percent. Jordan-James' length could give Davis some problems, and if he can take Davis out of rhythm, the Volunteers have a real shot to return to the Elite Eight.
Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic stat to know
Second-chance scoring opportunities figure to be a major factor in the outcome of this one, as FAU's going to have its hands full against an elite rebounding team in Tennessee. The Volunteers enter the Sweet 16 posting the seventh-best offensive rebound rate in college basketball, corralling 36.4 percent of their missed shots. Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 50 in offensive rebound rate allowed on defense but has yet to face a team as dangerous as Tennessee on the offensive glass.
Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic prediction
If the Volunteers get another big-time performance from one of their rotational pieces like Nkamhoua gave them in the Round of 32, Tennessee can beat anyone in the country. Chances are Nkamhoua doesn't replicate his 27-point effort this time around, but even still, Tennessee's defensive physicality and intensity should wear the Owls down over 40 minutes. Florida Atlantic stays within striking distance for most of the contest, but Tennessee's elite rebounding abilities help the Volunteers notch a multi-possession win over the Owls. Florida Atlantic tries to speed the game up to generate scoring looks in transition before the Volunteers' defense can get set, though, resulting in a higher possession game that lands OVER the total.
Prediction: Tennessee 70, Florida Atlantic 63. Tennessee (-5.5) covers the spread, with the game going OVER the total (129.5).
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