Two mid-major powerhouses will go head-to-head as 5-seed San Diego State takes on 12-seed College of Charleston in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State headlines a surprisingly large contingent of Mountain West schools in this year's tournament. Four teams from the conference made the field, with the other three being Boise State, Utah State and Nevada.
The Aztecs are fresh off a 62-57 victory over Utah State in the conference championship game that punched their ticket to the dance. This is their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach Brian Dutcher. They haven't made it past the first round in any of their last three appearances overall, however.
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On the other side is the red-hot champion of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Cougars have put together a remarkable season that included taking down UNC-Wilmington 63-58 in the conference championship.
This is the sixth tournament appearance in program history for the squad from South Carolina, but just the second since 1999. Led by second-year head coach Pat Kelsey, the team drew national attention during the season. There's no doubt this is one of the hottest teams in the country right now; it's riding a 10-game winning streak into March Madness.
The Sporting News is breaking down the matchup, including odds, time and TV information.
San Diego State vs. College of Charleston odds
San Diego State vs. College of Charleston will be the first 5-vs.-12 matchup of the 2023 tournament, with tipoff scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 16. The game will be played at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla.
The game will be broadcast on truTV, with Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy and Lauren Shehadi on the call.
According to odds from BetMGM, San Diego State opened as the favorite.
- Odds: San Diego State -4.5
- Date: Thursday, March 16
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Arena: Amway Center, Orlando, Fla.
San Diego State (27-6, 15-3 Mountain West)
This squad has serious dark-horse potential. Punching well above its weight in the NET and KenPom rankings, it can wear down just about anyone with stifling defense and impressive depth.
The Aztecs rank 27th in the country in defensive efficiency and 34th in rebounding, which can be a good formula for grinding out wins in March.
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Their weakness is on the offensive end, where they rank 105th in efficiency. They'll have to make sure their opponents don't get hot, because they aren't especially well-equipped for a high-scoring game.
- NET ranking: 14
- KenPom ranking: 14
- Quad 1 record: 5-5
- Quad 2 record: 6-1
- Quad 3 record: 13-0
- Quad 4 record: 2-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 105
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 27
Key players
Matt Bradley, G, Sr. (6-4, 220): 12.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.1 apg
Darrion Trammell, G, Sr. (5-10, 175): 9.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 3.3 apg
Lamont Butler, G, Jr. (6-2, 195): 8.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.2 apg
College of Charleston (31-3, 16-2 Colonial)
The Cougars will be a trendy pick to pull off upsets this March. One of their three losses was to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. They haven't lost since a 70-69 defeat to Drexel on Feb. 2. Even if they hadn't won their conference tournament, they would have been in consideration for an at-large bid.
This is a team with very few weaknesses on paper. It ranks in the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and it features a balanced group of scorers that can hurt its opponent in a variety of ways. It's also a very good rebounding team that tends to stay out of foul trouble.
With the ability to light it up behind the arc — Charleston ranked 10th in Division I in 3-pointers made per game — this is a squad no one will look forward to playing in the dance.
- NET ranking: 51
- KenPom ranking: 73
- Quad 1 record: 0-1
- Quad 2 record: 2-0
- Quad 3 record: 12-2
- Quad 4 record: 16-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 18
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 14
Key players
Dalton Bolon, G, Sr. (6-4, 205): 12.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.3 apg
Ante Brzovic, F, Soph. (6-10, 225): 11.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.9 apg
Reyne Smith, G, Soph. (6-2, 190): 10.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.4 apg
San Diego State vs. College of Charleston prediction
This matchup will likely come down to whether San Diego State can keep Charleston quiet from beyond the arc. The Aztecs need to play the game on their terms by slowing the pace down, winning the rebounding battle and playing solid perimeter defense. If they can do all those things, they'll be in good shape to advance to the second round.
Charleston will need to figure out a way to overcome SDSU's stingy defense, but it has the tools to do so. Brzovic is a force in the paint, and plenty of shooters can knock down shots from beyond the arc. At least on paper, this looks like a good matchup for the Cougars.
Go with the upset here. Charleston's dynamic offensive attack will help lead it to the victory and into the second round, where it will face 4-seed Virginia or 13-seed Furman.
History of 5 vs. 12 matchups in NCAA Tournament
The 12-5 upset is always a popular pick in March Madness brackets, and for good reason. In 10 of the last 13 years, at least one 5-seed has upset a 12-seed.
Overall, No. 5 seeds hold a 96-52 head-to-head advantage over No. 12 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That means, historically, 12 seeds have pulled off the upset 35.1 percent of the time.
Here's a look at all of the 12-5 upsets in the NCAA Tournament since 2010:
| Year | Result | |
| 2022 | Richmond 67, Iowa 63 | |
| 2022 | New Mexico State 70, UConn 63 | |
| 2021 | Oregon State 70, Tennessee 56 | |
| 2019 | Murray State 83, Marquette 64 | |
| 2019 | Liberty 80, Mississippi State 76 | |
| 2019 | Oregon 72, Wisconsin 54 | |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee 81, Minnesota 72 | |
| 2016 | Yale 79, Baylor 75 | |
| 2016 | Little Rock 85, Purdue 83 (2 OTs) | |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin 77, VCU 75 (OT) | |
| 2014 | North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 (OT) | |
| 2014 | Harvard 61, Cincinnati 57 | |
| 2013 | Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 55 | |
| 2013 | California 64, UNLV 61 | |
| 2013 | Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 46 | |
| 2012 | VCU 62, Wichita State 59 | |
| 2012 | South Florida 58, Temple 44 | |
| 2011 | Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 66 | |
| 2010 | Cornell 78, Temple 65 |
