Despite Saint Mary's vs. Indiana being a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup, you could be forgiven for having their seeds flipped. Indiana has been on the tip of the nation's tongue for the past two weeks, first with its strong Big Ten tournament run featuring wins over tournament teams Michigan and Illinois and then on Tuesday with a big First Four win over Wyoming powered by Trayce Jackson-Davis.
Saint Mary's, however, will not be disrespected. The Gaels have put together an outstanding team this year, highlighted by their signature win over Gonzaga at the end of the February in a sub-60 point performance for the Bulldogs.
With that in mind, anticipate a low-scoring affair between these two teams. Both of them hold the ball and pride themselves on their defensive prowess. Indiana comes from a conference that prides itself on that style of play, and finished 9-11 in the Big Ten. It will have to look like the team that played Wyoming on Tuesday to pull off the upset against Saint Mary's.
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No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Indiana odds
Saint Mary's comes into this game with favorable odds over Indiana, but the books have this game coming in close. According to Sports Interaction, the Gaels are three-point favorites over the Hoosiers for Thursday's matchup, with the over/under set at 126.5. While that seems low, it's right for this matchup.
- Odds: Saint Mary's (-3.0)
- Date: Thursday, March 17
- Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS, Sling TV
- Arena: Moda Center -- Portland, Oregon
Saint Mary's (25-7, 12-3 West Coast)
Whether or not you've heard of the Gaels, they're a legitimate threat in this tournament. While their win over Gonzaga has done a lot to fuel their place in the national conversation, they've been consistently strong against some of the top teams in the country, with 10 wins in Quadrants 1 and 2. Saint Mary's is also playing with a bit of unfinished business -- the Gaels were nearly assured to get in in 2020 before March Madness was canceled by COVID-19.
While Saint Mary's doesn't have the best player on the floor in this game -- that title goes to Jackson-Davis -- it's very much a team composed of the sum of its parts. Saint Mary's wants to keep this game around the 50s and 60s. The problem is, Indiana does too.
- NET ranking: 19
- KenPom ranking: 17
- Quad 1 record: 4-7
- Quad 2 record: 6-0
- Quad 3 record: 5-0
- Quad 4 record: 9-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 82
- Defensive efficiency: 24
Key players
Matthias Tass (6-foot-10, 245-pound, senior forward): 12.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.0 apg
Tommy Khuse (6-foot-2, 185-pound, senior guard): 12.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.6 apg
Indiana (21-13, 9-11 Big Ten)
From first four out to First Four, Indiana has had a rocky road to get this point. After a brutal showing in Big Ten play, Indiana went into the conference tournament with something to prove. Wins over Michigan and Illinois ultimately secured it a First Four bid, while a victory against Wyoming ultimately clinched Indiana's spot in the field of 64.
Behind it all has been Trayce Jackson-Davis, who averaged nearly 20 points per game this season but has ratcheted his game up a notch in the postseason. In his last four games, Jackson-Davis is averaging 26.3 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game, and he's doing so against very good competition.
Jackson-Davis will have to keep it going against Saint Mary's, as he's going up against a team that prides itself on defense. With that being said, Wyoming's Graham Ike often looked overmatched against Jackson-Davis, so look for him to force his opponents to make mistakes.
- NET ranking: 38
- KenPom ranking: 35
- Quad 1 record: 5-8
- Quad 2 record: 4-4
- Quad 3 record: 5-1
- Quad 4 record: 7-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 132
- Defensive efficiency: 42
Key players
Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-foot-9, 245-pound, senior forward): 18.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.9 apg
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Indiana prediction
This game is extremely hard to predict for a myriad of reasons, not least of which is that these teams are very similar on paper. If this game gets grimy, it plays into both teams' usual gameplan, so who comes out on top? While normally the edge there goes to the best player on the floor, Saint Mary's has ways of negating great big play. Chet Holmgren, for example, has been held to six and eight points, respectively, in his last two meetings with the Gaels.
That spells bad news for Indiana, who have been riding Jackson-Davis to get to this point. The hope, of course, is that the Hoosiers have the depth to overcome if their best player gets shut down. But thus far that hasn't been the case. Look for Saint Mary's to win this game in a close one.
For more insight on this and every matchup, check out the TeamRankings Predictor Tool below. TeamRankings subscribers also receive access to customized, data-driven picks for their bracket pools.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed history
No. 5 seeds are 93-51 against No. 12 seeds, giving No. 12 a 35.4 percent winning percentage in these matchups. No. 12 over No. 5 is one of the most popular upset picks, and for good reason. There have been just five years in which at least one 12 seed DIDN'T advance past the first round.
Here's a look at times 12 seeds were able to get out of the first round throughout the 2010s.
| Year | Result | Score |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
