The stars will be out in Los Angeles on Thursday, as No. 1-seeded North Carolina takes on 4-seeded Alabama (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS).
North Carolina has bounced back nicely from its ACC tournament loss to NC State. The Tar Heels won their opening-round March Madness matchup with Wagner by 28 points, then cruised past Michigan State with a 16-point second-round win. UNC has scored 175 points in the tournament, 42 of which have come from star guard RJ Davis.
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Alabama has also enjoyed a strong start to the tourney. The Tide leveled Charleston 109-96 in the first round, then stifled mid-major Grand Canyon 72-61 in the second round. Like UNC, Nate Oats' 'Bama squad can put up plenty of points but also has the ability to slow things down and play elite defense.
Can the Tide roll on and upset North Carolina? Or, will the Tar Heels emerge victorious and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight? Let's look at all the odds, analyze the matchup, and unveil our best bets and final score prediction.
North Carolina vs. Alabama odds
Early Sweet 16 odds according to BetMGM have North Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite entering Thursday's matchup against Alabama.
- Odds: North Carolina (-4.5), O/U 173.5
- Date: Thursday, March 28
- Time: 9:39 p.m. ET (after the Arizona-Clemson game)
- TV: ABC/Paramount Plus (sign up for Paramount+)
- Arena: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA (buy tickets)
North Carolina (29-7, 17-3 in ACC)
The Tar Heels do a lot of things well. They have a balanced scoring attack, ranking top 20 in the nation with 81.8 points per game and taking and making a ton of free throws. They also play strong defense, holding opponents to just 40.8 percent shooting (26th). And few teams rebound better than UNC, which averaged 29 defensive rebounds and nearly 41 total rebounds per game (both top 10).
North Carolina went 8-2 away from Chapel Hill this season and won the ACC regular-season title, although its toughest loss came in the ACC tournament against NC State in Washington D.C. Hubert Davis's squad has not won a national championship since 2016, when Coach Davis was still an assistant to Roy Williams.
The only real issue this UNC team has faced: fouls and turnovers. The Tar Heels average double-digit turnovers and commit 16.5 fouls per game. Davis's squad also isn't very deep — we've seen some stagnant play on both sides of the floor when the starters are tired or resting, which could ultimately pose a problem in the tournament.
Key players
RJ Davis, G, Sr. (6-0, 160): 21.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.2 spg
Armando Bacot, F, Sr. (6-10, 240): 14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg
Harrison Ingram, F, Sr. (6-8, 230): 12.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.2 spg
MORE: Buy tickets for the Final Four as low as $210!
Alabama (23-11, 13-5 in SEC)
Alabama might be one of the more underrated squads still standing in the tournament. Mark Sears and the Crimson Tide rank first in the nation in scoring (90.7 PPG), third in offensive rating, fourth in offensive efficiency, and eighth in tempo. They've cracked 90-plus 12 times since Christmastime.
However, what we saw from the Tide in the second round should have Tuscaloosa excited. Alabama stifled Grand Canyon with elite defense, holding the Antelopes to 32 percent shooting and a woeful 2-of-20 from three-point land.
Of course, Alabama also committed a ton of fouls — 26, to be exact — which translated to an insane 37 free-throw attempts for Grand Canyon. The Antelopes bailed them out, though, hitting just 23 of them (62.2%). Bryce Drew's squad also didn't capitalize on Alabama's 14 turnovers. UNC won't be as generous with the Tide's shortcomings.
Key players
Mark Sears, G, Sr. (6-1, 185): 21.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.2 apg
Aaron Estrada, G, Sr. (6-4, 207): 13.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.7 apg
Grant Nelson, F, Sr. (6-10, 215): 11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.6 apg
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North Carolina vs. Alabama prediction
North Carolina has been the more dominant team over the first two rounds, and its core rotation is superior on both sides of the ball. Alabama often looked rushed and frenetic against Grand Canyon, which UNC will not allow the Tide to get away with this time around. With ample rest and time for Hubert Davis to prepare his guys, expect the Tar Heels to take care of business and cover the modest -4.5 spread.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: North Carolina 88, Alabama 76 — The Tar Heels advance and cover the spread (-4.5), with the score going well UNDER the total (173.5).
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