In the first game on Friday, No. 10 seed Michigan State will face off against No. 7 seed USC in the first round of the 2023 men's basketball tournament. The game is scheduled to tip off at 12:15 p.m. ET from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH (CBS).
The Spartans (19-12) will try to make it out of the second round this year after losing to Duke 85-76 during the first weekend in last year's NCAA tournament. Michigan State is coming off a disappointing Big 10 Tournament loss to an Ohio State squad that finished 5-15 in the conference. The Spartans' perimeter defense struggled in that contest, allowing the Buckeyes to shoot 52.6 percent from three-point range and 44.6 percent from the field. However, we've seen Michigan State play at a high level this season. It finished in fourth place in a competitive Big Ten conference and had a good non-conference win against Kentucky earlier this season. The Spartans also had a couple of tough non-conference losses against Gonzaga and Alabama, but it shows they can compete with the best in the country.
Meanwhile, the Trojans (22-10) will try not to get bounced in the first round for the second-straight year after losing to Miami (FL) in 2022. USC is led by the dynamic backcourt of Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson, who are averaging 18 and 14 points per game, respectively, this season. USC has one quality non-conference win under its belt this season in Auburn, who they defeated 74-71 in December. It should be a fun matchup between Enfield and Izzo, who know how things can play out in March.
TSN's MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Predictor tool
Here's everything to know about betting on Michigan State vs. USC in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for the first-round matchup.
Michigan State vs. USC odds
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Michigan State is a two-point favorite over USC. The point total is set at 137.5 points, so bettors should be on "OVER alert," as both teams are averaging 70-plus points per game this season.
- Spread: Michigan State -2
- Over/under: 137.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State (-131), USC (+109)
Three betting trends to watch
— The Spartans are 10-9 against the spread this season as a favorite but 16-3 straight up on the moneyline.
— The Trojans have thrived as an underdog this season, going 7-5 ATS. USC is also 6-3 ATS this season after a loss.
— However, neither team has a great edge on a neutral court, as USC is 3-2 ATS and Michigan State is 3-3 ATS.
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
Michigan State key players
For the Spartans to win on Friday, they will need their trio of Tyson Walker, Joey Hauser, and A.J. Hoggard to outduel the Trojans' duo of Ellis and Peterson. Walker, who was named second-team All-Big Ten this season, led Michigan State in scoring (14.8 points per game) and is shooting 42.3 percent from beyond the arc. Hauser and Hoggard were named honorable mention inside the conference this season. Hauser is averaging 14.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while shooting a team-best 45.6 percent from distance. Hoggard does a little bit of everything on the floor for the Spartans, averaging 12.5 points, 6.0 assists (team-high), and 3.8 rebounds per game.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
USC key players
The Trojans are led by guards Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson (All-Pac 12 first-team players), who must play great for USC to advance to the Round of 32. Ellis led USC in scoring this season with 18 points per game and was second in the Pac-12 behind Arizona forward Azuolas Tubelis (19.8). The 6-3 guard is shooting 39.2 percent from three-point range on a career-best 6.6 attempts per game. The former University of Memphis transfer has recorded 20 or more points in 11 games this season. Coincidentally, USC has a record of 9-2 in those games. Peterson is producing 14 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. He's also shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 36.2 percent from beyond the arc. Along with those two guards, the Spartans will have to worry about big man Joshua Morgan, who led the team with 2.3 blocks per game (13th in the country) and was named to the Pac-12 All-defensive team.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Tyson Walker vs. Boogie Ellis
Friday's game will have tremendous guard play between Walker and Ellis. Ellis struggled in the Trojans' last game against Arizona State in the Pac-12 tournament with 15 points (5-12 FG, 2-5 3pt) and four assists. However, Ellis is capable of having a big game, which we saw in the Trojans' six-point loss to Arizona earlier this month (35 points on 11-of-20 shooting from the field and 6-of-11 from three). It could be a long day for the Spartans if they let Ellis get into a groove early. However, Walker will not be easy to slow down either. One of his best games this season happened against Iowa in February, where he produced 31 points (11-15 FG, 2-3 3pt), five assists, and four rebounds.
Michigan State vs. USC stat to know
The Spartans are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, converting at a 39.5 percent rate (fourth in the NCAA). Meanwhile, the Trojans are ranked 156th in the NCAA in three-point shooting (34.7 percent). USC has to do a great job running Michigan State off the three-point line to increase their chances of winning on Friday afternoon. However, the Trojans are ranked 156th in three-point defense (33.4 percent) this season, while Michigan State allows opponents to shoot just 31.5 percent from beyond the arc (31st in the country).
EXPERT PICKS:
DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Michigan State vs. USC prediction
This should be a fun game to start Friday between two teams looking to punch their ticket to Sunday and start with a clean slate. The Spartans have better shooters and three-point defense, which will play a notable role in this contest. Furthermore, both teams aren't great at rebounding this season, but USC has a slight advantage in offensive rebounding (9.4) over Michigan State (8.9), leading to more second-chance opportunities. That said, we like the Spartans to win in a close one, as they have a better trio of veteran scorers and will have a decisive homecourt advantage playing in Columbus.
Prediction: Michigan State 76, USC 73. Michigan State (-2) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (137.5)
See what BetQL is projecting for Michigan State vs. USC, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
