Every year during March Madness, one of the predominant talking points in the betting world seems to be "Which 12-seed will upset a five-seed?" These matchups tend to garner pre-game intrigue and deliver on the in-game excitement scale, and we expect fifth-seeded Miami vs. 12-seeded Drake to be an instant classic. Let's dive into the odds for this first-round matchup, analyze the players and trends, and make our best bets and final score predictions.
The Hurricanes have plenty of momentum going into the Big Dance, powered by a fantastic offensive backcourt. Miami closed out the season winning eight of nine ACC games and nine of its past 11 overall, a handful of which were by eight points or more. Veteran coach Jim Larrañaga saw his squad average a whopping 79.4 points per game (25th in the nation) and maintain a staggering 114.7 offensive rating (8th). The 'Canes finished with an ACC-best 15-5 conference record and went 3-1 against ranked teams.
But Drake, while not a household name, will not be an easy out. Like Miami, the Bulldogs of the Missouri Valley went 15-5 in conference play and lost just seven games all season. They won 13 of their last 14 games and finished the season averaging 75.3 points per game while allowing opponents to average just 63.9. Flaunting one of the oldest and most experienced starting lineups and led by two-time MVC Coach of the Year Darian DeVries, this is not your typical double-digit seed.
Before these squads duel on Friday night (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS), here's everything to know about betting on Miami vs. Drake in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this first-round game.
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Miami vs. Drake odds
- Spread: Miami -2.5 (-110) | Drake +2.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 146.5 (-110); UNDER 146.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami -145 | Drake +120
This is about as closely set a line as you'll see between a fifth-seed and a 12-seed, a testament to Drake's ability to score while also limiting offenses. For Miami, the driving force behind its -2.5 spread advantage is shooting and tempo — but it might have been an even larger number if not for the uncertainty of 'Canes power forward Norchad Omier, who could miss this one due to an ankle injury. Still, both squads can light up the scoreboard and both have strong coaching, so we understand completely why the over/under total has been set at north of 145.
MORE: Norchad Omier injury updates: Will Miami star play vs. Drake?
Three betting trends to watch
— Don't immediately smash the OVER because these squads both averaged a ton of points per game over the entire season. Six consecutive Drake games have gone UNDER, while the OVER has gone just 2-9-1 in Miami's past 12 road games.
— Miami went 18-14 against the spread this season, while Drake went 16-16-1 ATS. Miami had a 9-2 road cover rate, while Drake went just 4-8 ATS in away games.
— Drake enjoyed a +388 scoring differential this season, averaging out to a +9.5 scoring margin per contest (18th best in the nation). Miami finished a +233, good for +7.3 per game (43rd).
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
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Miami key players
As we mentioned off the top, Miami's potent backcourt serves as its main offensive driver. The Hurricanes' top three rotational guards combined to average 44.7 points per game this season, well over half of the team's 79.4 total points per game. Wooga Poplar, Nijel Pack, and Isaiah Wong can all score well from all three levels of the floor, but the trio's primary weapon of choice is the three-ball. They average a combined 5.2 triples per game on 13.1 attempts — good for a 39.7-percent collective three-point percentage. But Larrañaga's squad doesn't live and die by the three-ball — the 'Canes ranked 55th in outside shooting and 30th in two-point shooting this season. The two-point efficiency will be impacted a bit if Omier can't go, but it would by no means be a deal-breaker for Miami's versatile offense. Drake's defense will have to pick its poison, because Miami will bring the heat wherever the D lets up.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Drake key players
The Bulldogs might as well be called the "Old Dogs," as the average age of Drake's starting lineup is a ripe 23.4, but DeVries has been able to find chemistry through continuity, making this squad incredibly lethal when everything's clicking. Darian also has a keen rapport with his leading scorer, who happens to be his son, Tucker DeVries. Tucker is a PER behemoth and a pure scorer with touch from basically anywhere within 25 feet. He finished this season shooting 52.3 percent from two, 38.7 percent from three, and 83.8 percent from the stripe en route to 19 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Only one other Bulldog — Roman Penn — averaged double-digit scoring this year (12.6), but all five Drake starters finished at 36.6 percent or better from beyond the arc.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Tucker DeVries vs. Jordan Miller
This should be a fantastic head-to-head matchup between Drake's go-to scorer and Miami's second-leading scorer. Both possess inside-outside offensive abilities and can light it up in a hurry. The 6-6 Miller has scored 17-plus in four consecutive games, while DeVries has averaged 18 ppg over his past four.
Miami vs. Drake stat to know
Drake went 1-3 against the spread as a road underdog this season, with its average spread as a road 'dog at +3.2 points. Miami, meanwhile, has gone 2-1-1 ATS when favored by between one and four points.
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Miami vs. Drake prediction
Miami has a more diverse scoring attack, more efficient shooting from the field and the three-point line, and a better track record away from home. Larrañaga's squad plays in a much better conference and has gone 3-1 against ranked opponents, while Drake has faced just one top-25 team the entire campaign. We might opt for the Hurricanes' moneyline rather than their spread if Omier sits, but we like lengthy backup big Anthony Walker to step up and get the job done defensively. At least this time, we're leaning against the 12-5 upset.
Prediction: Miami 76, Drake 73. Miami (-2.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (146.5).
See what BetQL is projecting for Miami vs. Drake, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
