Three of the last four national champions lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament the week before the Big Dance.
North Carolina (2017), Virginia (2019) and Baylor (2021) all have pulled off that feat in recent seasons. In a wide-open 2021 field, we're going to remember that statistic.
Kentucky didn't win the SEC regular season or conference championship tournament. The Wildcats haven't won a national championship in 10 seasons either. Yet Kentucky has all the necessary ingredients for a title run.
That starts with the SN Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. He averages 17 points and 15.2 rebounds per game. The Wildcats have five players who score double digits, and this is one of John Calipari's better defensive teams since arriving in Lexington.
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Will that be enough to get to the Final Four? It's going to be fun watching Calipari play the role of villain in New Orleans with a Final Four that includes Duke, Kansas and Arizona. We think this Kentucky team is capable of sending Mike Krzyzewski to retirement with a loss in a thrilling Final Four matchup before the Wildcats get revenge on Arizona for the 1997 national championship game.
That starts with Tshiebwe, who etches his name into March Madness lore with a dominant Final Four performance. Here is a look at the bracket.
East Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Baylor over 16 Norfolk State
8 North Carolina over 9 Marquette
5 Saint Mary's over 12 Wyoming/Indiana
4 UCLA over 13 Akron
6 Texas over 11 Virginia Tech
3 Purdue over 14 Yale
7 Murray State over 10 San Francisco
2 Kentucky over 15 Saint Peter's
SECOND ROUND
1 Baylor over 8 North Carolina
4 UCLA over 5 Saint Mary's
6 Texas over 3 Purdue
2 Kentucky over 7 Murray State
SWEET 16
4 UCLA over 1 Baylor
2 Kentucky over 6 Texas
ELITE EIGHT
2 Kentucky over 4 UCLA
This is Kentucky's region, and there are a lot of hurdles to get through. Baylor is the defending national champion and can survive a game in the 60s against the Wildcats. UCLA, however, will be the ones to knock the Bears out in the Sweet 16. The Bruins have the core back from last year's Final Four run.
Kentucky could face Murray State, a 30-win team that will leave it all out on the floor, but we saw the Wildcats spoil Wichita State in the same fashion in 2017. Texas and Purdue have been tough teams to read later in the season. The Longhorns allow 59.6 points per game, and that defense is enough to get by the Boilers and throw a scare into Kentucky. Ultimately, Kentucky gets a date with Duke in the Final Four.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Fagan (Gonzaga) | Pohnl (Arizona)
West Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Gonzaga over 16 Georgia State
9 Memphis over 8 Boise State
5 UConn over 12 New Mexico State
4 Arkansas over 13 Vermont
6 Alabama over 12 Rutgers/Notre Dame
3 Texas Tech over 14 Montana State
7 Michigan State over 10 Davidson
2 Duke over 15 Cal State Fullerton
SECOND ROUND
1 Gonzaga over 9 Memphis
4 Arkansas over 5 UConn
3 Texas Tech over 6 Alabama
2 Duke over 7 Michigan State
SWEET 16
4 Arkansas over 1 Gonzaga
2 Duke over 3 Texas Tech
ELITE EIGHT
2 Duke over 4 Arkansas
Arkansas is the team that will make or break your bracket. The Razorbacks are built to challenge Gonzaga with the inside-outside combo of JD Notae and Jaylin Williams, a 6-10 sophomore who averages 10.5 points and 9.6 rebounds. Look for an Arkansas for the upset in the Sweet 16.
That clears the way for the Mike Krzyzewski retirement tour to dominate the region. Even if Gonzaga beats Arkansas, remember Duke beat the Bulldogs 84-81 on Nov. 26. The Blue Devils will have obstacles, including another matchup with Michigan State in the second round. Duke, however, beats Arkansas in the Elite Eight to advance to Coach K’s 13th Final Four. This region will have the chalkiest first round of the bunch.
MORE: Print your 2022 March Madness bracket here
South Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Arizona over 16 Wright State/Bryant
8 Seton Hall over 9 TCU
12 UAB over 5 Houston
4 Illinois over 13 Chattanooga
11 Michigan over 6 Colorado State
3 Tennessee over 14 Longwood
10 Loyola Chicago over 7 Ohio State
2 Villanova over 15 Delaware
SECOND ROUND
1 Arizona over 8 Seton Hall
4 Illinois over 12 UAB
3 Tennessee over 11 Michigan
2 Villanova over 10 Loyola Chicago
SWEET 16
1 Arizona over 4 Illinois
2 Villanova over 3 Tennessee
ELITE EIGHT
1 Arizona over 2 Villanova
This region has the most potential for first-round chaos. Look for UAB over Houston in the first round, and it's possible Chattanooga, led by sophomore guard Malachi Smith, can knock off Illinois in the same pod. Michigan is good for one tournament win against Colorado State, and Loyola can knock off Ohio State.
That's four double-digit seeds winning, and it opens the door for a chalky regional final between Arizona and Villanova. This battle of Wildcats would be fun. Jay Wright's bid for a third national title falls short, however, and Arizona advances to give the Pac-12 a Final Four team for the second straight season.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Midwest Region
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas over 16 Tex. Southern/TAMU-CC
8 San Diego State over 9 Creighton
5 Iowa over 12 Richmond
13 South Dakota State over 4 Providence
11 Iowa State over 6 LSU
3 Wisconsin over 14 Colgate
7 USC over 10 Miami
2 Auburn over 15 Jacksonville State
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 8 San Diego State
5 Iowa over 13 South Dakota State
3 Wisconsin over 11 Iowa State
2 Auburn over 7 USC
SWEET 16
1 Kansas over 5 Iowa
3 Wisconsin over 2 Auburn
ELITE EIGHT
1 Kansas over 3 Wisconsin
Kansas got a favorable look, a reward for winning another Big 12 tournament championship. Wisconsin and Providence had low Net/KenPom combinations throughout the entire season, and Auburn has lost four of its last nine games. The Jayhawks are the most-complete team among the chalk, and that will show up on the first weekend, even in a tough second-round matchup against San Diego State.
South Dakota State is a No. 13 team that can pull off that upset against Providence, and that would set up a shootout in the second round against Iowa, a team playing well at the right time. Wisconsin and Iowa will take their shots at Kansas in the Midwest regional, but the Jayhawks will emerge with a return to the Final Four.
