The first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament continues Friday.
Will there be upsets on Day 2? No. 1 Purdue is the last top seed in action, and the Boilermakers will take the first step toward what the program hopes is its first Final Four berth since 1980.
A few double-digit seeds are worth watching. No. 13 Iona – led by coach Rick Pitino – has a chance to pull an upset against No. 3 UConn. No. 13 Kent State takes on No. 4 Indiana in another popular upset pick – not to mention a rematch from their classic 2002 Elite Eight matchup. Five Big East teams will be in action on Friday, too, including Marquette, Xavier, UConn, Creighton and Providence.
It's another full day of first-round action with more chances to take advantage on moneyline bets and picks against the spread.
TSN's MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Predictor tool
March Madness picks, predictions for Round 1
- No. 7 Michigan State (-1.5) vs. No. USC (East)
Day 2 starts with a virtual toss-up between the Spartans, and USC guard Boogie Ellis, who averages 18.0 points per game, could be a problem for Michigan State if he heats up. Michigan State is close to home in Columbus, however, and they are 8-1 S/U and 7-2 ATS when favored by five points or less. Tom Izzo leads Michigan State to Sunday.
Pick: Michigan State wins 74-66 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 3 Xavier (-11.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State (Midwest)
Xavier is back in the tournament with Sean Miller, and the Musketeers closed the season with six wins in seven games. Xavier is 10-0 when favored by double digits, but they are 4-6 ATS. The Owls are going to need 70-plus to have a chance, and Xavier's methodical style keeps them under that number.
Pick: Xavier wins 82-68 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 3 Baylor (-10.5) vs. No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (South)
This is another game that has sounded the upset alarm. The Gauchos are 20-10 ATS this year, and guard Ajay Mitchell is a prolific scorer. Baylor needs freshman star Keyonte George to get back on track, too. Baylor lost four of its last six games. The Bears get back on track, but UC-Santa Barbara hangs around long enough for a cover.
Pick: Baylor wins 74-69 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
- No. 5 Saint Mary's (-4.5) vs. No. 12 VCU (South)
The Rams have a full-court press that is going to test the Gaels, who did not play well in the West Coast Conference tournament. Can VCU point guard Ace Baldwin – who is 15th in the nation with 5.8 assists per game – control the tempo in this game? We think the Atlantic-10 champions are being undervalued.
Pick: VCU wins 71-70 in an UPSET
- No. 2 Marquette (-10.5) vs. No. 15 Vermont (East)
The Catamounts are in the tournament for the fourth time since 2017, and they lost their last three first-round games by an average total of seven points per game. Vermont will not be fazed by the seeding, even against a Marquette team that has won nine straight games. The Golden Eagles are 4-6 ATS when favored by double digits.
Pick: Marquette wins 80-71 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 6 Iowa State (-3.5) vs. No. 11 Pitt (Midwest)
Iowa State lives by the 3-pointer, and Pitt limits opponents to 33.2% shooting behind the arc. The Panthers have to keep Jamarius Burton, and this game will be tight. Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur - a tandem of senior guards — match up well. Iowa State wins, but this line is tricky.
Pick: Iowa State wins 70-63 and COVERS the spread.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
- No. 6 Creighton (-5.5) vs. No. 11 NC State (South)
The Blue Jays better be careful after a 82-60 loss to Xavier in the Big East tournament. NC State had a dud against Clemson in the ACC tournament and spent the week being told they shouldn't be in the tournament. That makes them a dangerous team, especially if Terquavion Smith heats up from 3-point range. The trends favor Creighton, but the Wolfpack pulls off a surprising upset.
Pick: NC State wins 79-76 in an UPSET.
- No. 4 UConn (-9.5) vs. No. 13 Iona (West)
The Gales are back in the tournament for the second time in three seasons, and UConn fans know Pitino well from the Big East days. Iona has three players who average more than 15 points per game, and Walter Clayton leads the nation in free-throw percentage. Can they hang around long enough against a tough Huskies team?
Pick: UConn wins 75-68 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 1 Purdue (-25.5) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (East)
Fairleigh Dickinson won its First Four game with four players scoring in double figures. The Knights also made 27 of 31 from the free-throw line. Purdue is a different challenge, and Zach Edey is a mismatch up front. How much does he disrupt Fairleigh Dickinson's offense? The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS when favored by more than 20 points.
Pick: Purdue wins 75-55 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
- No. 6 Kentucky (-4.5) vs. No. 11 Providence (East)
Kentucky better be careful in this matchup. Providence is a tough veteran team with a front line that features Bryce Hopkins (16.1 ppg) and Ed Croswell (13.2 ppg). The Wildcats need to be more than Oscar Tshiebwe to win this game, and they need to make free throws late. John Calipari will use that first-round loss to Saint. Peter's to his advantage here. Kentucky avoids a first-round loss this time. The line has bumped up one point, too.
Pick: Kentucky wins 73-66 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 5 Miami (-2.5) vs. No. 12 Drake (Midwest)
This call comes down to whether Miami forward Norchad Ormier can play. He averages 13.6 points and 9.7 rebounds, and that presence will be required against the Bulldogs, who have won 14 out of 15 games. There still is enough firepower on Miami's roster to get this win with Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller. The Hurricanes learn their lesson from losing to MVC champion Loyola-Chicago in the 2018 NCAA tournament. It won't happen again.
Pick: Miami wins 84-79 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 3 Gonzaga (-15.5) vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon (West)
Rayshon Harrison scored 31 points in the WAC championship game, and the Antelopes averaged 75.3 points per game. How long can they keep up with Gonzaga, which led the nation with 87.5 points per game? Gonzaga is 4-8 ATS when favored by double digits, but they have won their last three tournament openers by an average of 34 points.
Pick: Gonzaga wins 86-68 and COVERS the spread.
REGION GUIDES: South | Midwest | West | East
- No. 8 Memphis (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic (East)
Penny Hardaway has the Tigers in the tournament, and they face a tough FAU team that won 31 games in a break-through season. Johnell Davis averages 13.5 points per game. Memphis guard Kendric Davis, however, had two 30-point games in the AAC tournament last weekend. The Tigers won six of their last seven games, and were 5-2 ATS in that stretch.
Pick: Memphis wins 77-70 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 3 Kansas State (-8.5) vs. No. 14 Montana State (East)
Kansas State had an up-and-down season in the Big 12. The Wildcats have an outstanding point guard in Markquis Nowell, who averages 16.8 points and 7.5 assists. Montana State was 5-2 ATS as underdog this year, but they lost to Oregon and Arizona by an average of 25.5 points per game. Kansas State takes over in the second half.
Pick: Kansas State wins 77-66 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 4 Indiana (-4.5) vs. No. 14 Kent State (Midwest)
There is a lot of momentum toward the Golden Flashes pulling an upset under coach Rob Senderhoff. Kent State averaged 76.6 points per game, and if guard Sincere Carry is hot this will be tight in the second half. We're counting on Trayce Jackson-Davis to be the difference for the Hoosiers, who hold off Kent State just like they did in the 2002 Elite Eight.
Pick: Indiana wins 80-76 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 6 TCU (-4.5) vs. No. 11 Arizona State/Nevada
Arizona State routed Nevada 98-73 in the First Four, and the Sun Devils shot 11 of 21 from 3-point range. TCU, however, can control the tempo with guard Mike Miles. The Horned Frogs are 8-1 when Miles scores more than 20 points. The experience from last season pays off.
Pick: TCU wins 77-71 and COVERS the spread.
