March Madness Final Four odds 2024: Projecting the teams to win NCAA Tournament semifinals, championship

It's just about impossible to come up with a perfect bracket. Even the smartest basketball minds in the world — and the most advanced projection models — struggle to even project the first round correctly.

That's why if someone has the correct Final Four predicted, it's a major accomplishment. Particularly in a year like 2024, when No. 11 NC State stunned the college basketball world to set up a matchup with No. 1 Purdue.

There are some teams that are less surprising. Many likely expected Connecticut to be in the Final Four. Same with Purdue. Alabama might be a No. 4 seed, but the Crimson Tide have been a standout program over the past several seasons.

Sporting News' projection model ran a simulation of the NCAA Tournament 20,000 times before the madness began. Of those 20,000, only seven featured Connecticut, Alabama, Purdue and NC State. That equals a 0.035 percent chance of this exact outcome happening. That's due in large part to the Wolfpack's presence — the model saw 358 scenarios where Connecticut, Alabama and Purdue reached this stage, or 1.79 percent. And having both Connecticut and Purdue in the Final Four? That's all the way up to 2,562, or 12.8 percent.

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With only four teams left, there's less madness to parse through. Sporting News' model, which takes composite ratings from Sports-Reference's SRS ratings, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI and Massey Ratings to evaluate teams, simulates each game 20,000 times and records each outcome. The model then takes the percentages of each outcome to determine the likelihood of each matchup.

Heading into the Final Four, SN's model is looking at the teams most likely to win in their semifinal games as well as win the championship. 

Here's a look at the odds and the model's predictions (Odds courtesy of BetMGM).

March Madness odds 2024

Connecticut began March Madness as the favorite to win the national championship, and that hasn't changed. The Huskies are now odds-on favorites to win a second straight title, listed by BetMGM as -225 favorites. Purdue, another No. 1 seed, are in a clear second to win it all, listed at +190.

The Crimson Tide and Wolfpack have had some stunning runs to the Final Four. But they are both longshots, listed at +1700 and +1800, respectively. Though Alabama is a longer shot to win in the Final Four, it has better odds to win the national championship than NC State.

BENDER: Final Four picks, predictions against the spread

Final Four projections

Sporting News' projection model largely agrees with the odds. Connecticut is the favorite with a 42.3 percent chance to win the championship (+137 implied odds) with Purdue second at 40.6 percent (+146 implied odds).

Unlike in the betting markets, Alabama has a better chance of advancing to the championship than NC State, per the model. The Crimson Tide have a 29.8 percent chance to advance to the title game (+235 implied odds). Their title hopes are also significantly higher at 12.7 percent (+686 implied odds).

NC State is far and away the least likely team to claim a championship. The Wolfpack have only an 18.8 percent chance to beat Purdue (+432 implied odds) and only a 4.42 percent chance to win the national championship (+2165 implied odds). It's safe to say the odds have improved since the start of the tournament, however, when the Wolfpack had only a 0.2 percent chance to reach the national championship and a 0.1 percent chance to win it all.

The most common national championship matchup — by far — was UConn vs. Purdue. In 20,000 simulations, the model saw Connecticut and Purdue squaring off 11,270 times — 56.35 percent. If those two were to face off, UConn would be given a 56.3 percent chance to win with implied odds of -129.

Here's a look at each matchup and the hypothetical odds for each team.

Even as dominant as UConn has been, the model still sees Purdue as potentially giving the Huskies a run for their money. The Wolfpack? Not quite as much.

Alabama could be in for a battle regardless of outcome. Though the Crimson Tide would be favored in either matchup, they would be under 70 percent odds to win in either facing against the Boilermakers or NC State.