March Madness bracket predictions 4.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2022 NCAA Tournament

Bill Bender

March Madness bracket predictions 4.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2022 NCAA Tournament image

Selection Sunday is suddenly just three weeks away. 

With that in mind, Sporting News unveils its fourth Field of 68 for the upcoming NCAA men's basketball tournament, which begins on March 15. This year's Final Four is at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans from April 2-4. 

Each week, SN will update our tournament projections leading up to the Big Dance. 

MORE: Juwan Howard's failure to walk away will prove costly

Auburn, Gonzaga and Arizona are firm No. 1 seeds in this week's projections for the second straight week. That said, Auburn has Kentucky lurking in the SEC and Purdue could bump Arizona at any time. Who is the fourth seed? Kansas, and the Jayhawks can solidify that with a victory against potential No. 1 seed Baylor on Saturday. Duke also remains in the mix. 

Those are the eight teams in the hunt for the No. 1 seed. 

We also will break down the tournament bubble each week. Right now our last four in are an alphabet soup of TCU, SMU, BYU and Rutgers. 

Who is our Field of 68? Here is a closer look: 

* - automatic bid

NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 Seeds

*Gonzaga (23-2, 12-0 WCC) 

Resume: Net: 1, KenPom: 1. Bulldogs close regular season with road trips to San Francisco and St. Mary's. 

*Auburn (24-3, 12-2 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 7, KenPom: 5. Tigers have lost their last two road games and travel to Tennessee on Saturday. Kentucky is closing in the rear-view mirror. 

*Arizona (24-2, 14-1 Pac-12) 

Resume: Net: 2, KenPom: 3. Wildcats riding an eight-game win streak and are 11-2 against Quad 1 and Quad 2. 

*Kansas (22-4, 11-2, Big 12)

Resume: Net: 5, KenPom: 5.  Jayhawks have maintained their hold on the last No. 1 seed heading into Saturday's rematch with Baylor. 

No. 2 Seeds

*Purdue (24-4, 13-4 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 9, KenPom: 13, Boilers could barge into the No. 1 seed talk with road wins at Michigan State and Wisconsin. 

Kentucky (22-5, 11-3 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 3, KenPom: 2. Wildcats trail Auburn in the SEC standings but still maintain better KenPom and Net ratings. 

*Duke (23-4, 13-3)

Resume: Net: 12, KenPom: 9. Blue Devils are 9-3 against Quad 1 and Quad 2. Even in a weak ACC, Duke profiles as a strong No. 2. 

Baylor (22-5, 10-4 Big 12) 

Resume: Net: 6, KenPom: 4. Bears have nine Quad 1 wins and have opportunities against Kansas and Texas the next two weeks. 

MORE: Toughest games left for projected top seeds

No. 3 Seeds 

Texas Tech (21-6, 10-4 Big 12)

Resume: Net: 8, KenPom: 10. Red Raiders are the highest-ranked No. 3 seed and don't have a ranked opponent left on the regular-season schedule. 

Illinois (19-7, 12-4 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 14, KenPom: 15. Illini split road games against Rutgers and Michigan State, which keeps them on this line through a hot Big Ten race. 

*Villanova (21-6, 14-3 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 5, KenPom: 8. Wildcats are on a five-game winning streak heading into Tuesday's game at UConn. 

Providence (22-3, 12-2 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 27, KenPom: 46. Friars are 12-3 in Quad 1 or Quad 2, but their Net and KenPom rankings continue to lag. 

No. 4 seeds 

Wisconsin (21-5, 12-4 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 20, KenPom: 25. Badgers swept bubble teams Indiana and Michigan last week, the latter of which led to a post-game scuffle between coaches Greg Gard and Juwan Howard. Badgers remain 13-4 in Quad 1 and Quad 2. 

Texas (19-8, 8-6 Big 12)

Resume: Net: 15, KenPom: 14. Horns' 5-7 record against Quad 1 teams limits their upside beyond the 4 line. 

Tennessee (19-6, 10-3 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 11, KenPom: 12. Vols have home opportunities against Auburn and Arkansas in the final two weeks of the season. 

UCLA (19-5, 11-4 Pac-12)

Resume: Net: 13, KenPom: 8. Bruins have matchups with Oregon and USC down the stretch that could bolster a solid resume. 

MORE: Bracket reveal can prove telling

No. 5 seeds

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*Houston (22-4, 11-2 AAC) 

Resume: Net: 4, KenPom: 7. Cougars still lack a Quad 1 victory, but the tournament reputation in recent seasons could bump them up to a No. 4 seed. 

Arkansas (21-6, 10-4 SEC)

Resume: Net: 23, KenPom: 19. Razorbacks are 18-2 outside of Quad 1 and continue to trend upward with each week. 

UConn (19-7, 10-5 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 17, KenPom: 18. Huskies are hot, and they get a big-stage game against Villanova on Tuesday. 

LSU (19-8, 7-7 SEC)

Resume: Net: 16, KenPom: 17. Tigers still have work to do to stay here, starting with a road game at Kentucky on Wednesday. 

No. 6 seeds

Ohio State (16-7, 9-5 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 18, KenPom: 22.  Buckeyes have not played great the last two weeks, but they maintain a 9-0 record in Quad 3 and Quad 4. They don't have a bad loss. 

Michigan State (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 28, KenPom: 27.  Spartans lost to Penn State and Illinois last week, and it doesn't get easier this week against Iowa and Purdue. 

USC (23-4, 12-4 Pac-12) 

Resume: Net: 24, KenPom: 28. Trojans have moved up with a 8-3 record against Quad 1 or Quad 2 teams. 

Alabama (17-10, 7-7 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 22, KenPom: 20. Crimson Tide have maintained a .500 record in SEC play, but they are 4-4 in their last eight games. 

No. 7 seeds 

Marquette (17-10, 9-7 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 33, KenPom: 34. Eagles have lost three of four but the schedule softens in their last three Big East games. 

*Murray State (26-2, 16-0 OVC)

Resume: Net: 26, KenPom: 30. Racers are perfect at home this season and continue to move up a line with each week. It's deserved. 

Iowa (18-8, 8-7 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 19, KenPom 16. The Hawkeyes are 1-5 against Quad 1 teams, but they are still above .500 in Big Ten play. They are in good shape. 

St. Mary's (22-6, 10-3 WCC) 

Resume: Net: 21, KenPom: 21. Gaels have firmed up at-large bid, and they get their shot at Gonzaga this week. 

No. 8 seeds 

Xavier (17-9, 7-8 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 25, KenPom: 37. Musketeers are sliding with four losses in their last five games. That road continues with Providence and Seton Hall this week. 

Seton Hall (16-9, 7-8 Big East) 

Resume: Net: 36, KenPom: 36. Pirates have maintained this spot and can keep it with road victories at Xavier and Creighton the next two weeks. 

*Boise State (21-6, 12-2 MWC) 

Resume: Net: 30, Ken Pom 26. Broncos maintain a half-game lead in the MWC standings for now. 

Wake Forest (20-7, 10-6 ACC) 

Resume: Net: 40, KenPom: 31. Deacons need to take care of business against Clemson and Louisville this week. That's how you stay off the uncomfortable ACC bubble. 

No. 9 seeds 

Wyoming (21-4, 10-2 MWC) 

Resume: Net: 38, KenPom: 48. Cowboys are 8-2 in Quad 1 or Quad 2, which makes for an adequate at-large case if it doesn't go their way in the MWC conference tournament. 

*Loyola-Chicago (20-6, 11-4 MVC) 

Resume: Net: 37, KenPom 35. Ramblers may need to stay unbeaten til MVC final if they want to feel comfortable about a potential at-large slot.

Colorado State (21-4, 11-4 MWC) 

Resume: Net: 31, KenPom 39. Rams would be in much better position if not for two bad losses to UNLV. 

Notre Dame (19-8, 12-4 ACC)

Resume: Net: 57, KenPom: 58. Irish still feel like a No. 9 seed because of a strong conference record, but it's a tenuous spot at best. 

No. 10 seeds 

*Davidson (22-4, 12-2 A-10) 

Resume: Net: 50, KenPom: 56. The A-10 looks like a one-bid league, so the Wildcats better take care of business in the conference tournament. 

San Francisco (21-7, 8-5 WCC)

Resume: Net: 29, KenPom: 24. Dons get a home game against Gonzaga on Wednesday. An upset would seal an at-large bid. 

Indiana (16-9, 7-8 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 43, KenPom: 45. Hoosiers still have chances against Rutgers and Purdue at the end of the Big Ten regular season. 

Florida (16-10, 6-7 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 49, KenPom 50, Gators feel like a safer bet now after Saturday's victory against Auburn. Home games against Arkansas and Kentucky are still on the schedule, too. 

No. 11 seeds 

Iowa State (18-9, 5-9 Big 12) 

Resume: Net: 35 KenPom: 29,  Cyclones could surge back up with a friendly season-ending schedule. 

Creighton (18-8, 10-5 Big East)

Resume: Net: 62, KenPom: 63. Blue Jays are taking care of business in Big East play, but their rankings remain low. 

North Carolina (19-8, 11-5 ACC)

Resume: Net: 42, KenPom: 43. Tar Heels finally added a Quad 1 win, and they should are moving past the "last four in" territory. 

Miami (19-8, 11-5 ACC)

Resume: Net: 65, KenPom: 67. Hurricanes are trending downward but have four games against unranked opponents left. 

No. 12 seeds 

BYU (19-9, 7-6 WCC) 

Resume: Net: 54, KenPom: 52. Cougars' rankings have dropped enough that it is questionable that the WCC would get four tournament teams. 

SMU (19-6, 10-3 AAC) 

Resume: Net: 46, KenPom: 55. You could put Memphis here, but the Mustangs swept the Tigers in the regular season and gives the AAC two bids. 

TCU (16-8, 5-7 Big 12) 

Resume: Net: 56, KenPom: 57. Three straight losses and a brutal season-ending schedule looms for the Horned Frogs. 

Rutgers (16-10, 10-6 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 80, KenPom: 73. Among the major conference teams, Rutgers has the lowest combined Net/KenPom rating of a team we put in the tournament. 

*North Texas (20-4, 13-1 C-USA)

Resume: Net: 39, KenPom: 41. Mean Green have a compelling at-large case with a 6-3 record against Quad 1 or Quad 2. 

*South Dakota State (25-4, 16-0 Summit)

Resume: Net: 68, KenPom: 69. Jackrabbits are 2-2 against Quad 1 or Quad 2 and have not lost in league play. This is a bracket buster profile. 

No. 13 seeds

*Vermont (22-5, 14-1 America East) 

Resume: Net: 61, KenPom: 62

*Chattanooga (22-7, 12-4 Southern) 

Resume: Net: 70, KenPom: 80

*Iona (22-5, 14-2 MAAC) 

Resume: Net: 72, KenPom: 82

*Toledo (21-6, 13-3 MAC) 

Resume: Net: 87, KenPom: 93

No. 14 seeds 

*Towson (21-7, 12-3 CAA)

Resume: Net: 75, KenPom: 75

*New Mexico State (22-4, 12-2 WAC) 

Resume: Net: 82, KenPom: 85

*Liberty (19-9, 10-3 A-Sun) 

Resume: Net: 112, KenPom: 110

*Princeton (19-5, 9-2, Ivy) 

Resume: Net: 110, KenPom: 112

No. 15 seeds 

*Wagner (19-3, 15-1 Northeast) 

Resume: Net: 115, KenPom: 130

*Montana State (21-6, 13-3 Big Sky) 

Resume: Net: 128, KenPom: 135

*Texas State (19-6, 10-3 Sun Belt) 

Resume: Net: 129, KenPom: 139

*Colgate (17-11, 13-2 Patriot) 

Resume: Net: 136, KenPom: 128

No. 16 seeds

*Longwood (21-6, 13-1 Big South) 

Resume: Net: 149, KenPom: 161

*Long Beach State (15-10, 10-2 Big West) 

Resume: Net: 161, KenPom: 150

*Norfolk State (16-5, 7-1 MEAC) 

Resume: Net: 157, KenPom: 174

*Cleveland State (19-7, 15-4 Horizon)

Resume: Net: 165, KenPom: 190

*Southern (15-11, 10-4 SWAC) 

Resume: Net: 192, KenPom: 186

*New Orleans (16-9, 9-1 Southland)

Resume: Net: 236, KenPom: 236

Four on the bubble

Mississippi State (16-11, 7-7 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 47, KenPom: 38. Michigan is the only team with a higher Net/KenPom combination that is also out of the current field of 68. 

Oklahoma (14-13, 4-10 Big 12) 

Resume: Net: 45, KenPom 40. Net and KenPom love the Sooners, but at some point you have to win games. 

Oregon (17-10, 10-6 Pac-12)

Resume: Net: 63, KenPom: 72. Ducks have a prove-it week against UCLA and USC this week. 

Belmont (24-5, 14-2 OVC) 

Resume: Net: 55, KenPom: 64. Would a victory at Murray State give the Bruins a legitimate shot at an at-large bid? 

Upcoming Bubble games to track 

Rutgers at Michigan (Wednesday) 

Duke at Virginia (Wednesday) 

UCLA at Oregon (Thursday) 

Belmont at Murray State (Thursday) 

Creighton at Providence (Saturday) 

Iowa State at Kansas State (Saturday)

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.