The first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament is here, and Thursday features some trendy upset picks that could define the first day.
Will No. 12 Oral Roberts knock off No. 5 Duke? Will No. 12 Charleston upset No. 5 San Diego State. Could No. 13 Furman knock off Virginia in the South Region? Even No. 15 Princeton is getting some tread against No. 2 Arizona.
Defending national champion and No. 1 seed Kansas also in action against No. 16 Howard. That is the largest spread of the day. It's a spectacular day of first-round action, and plenty of chances to take advantage on moneyline bets and picks against the spread.
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March Madness picks, predictions for Round 1
- No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia (-2.5) (South)
Here is the first of several toss-up games involving Big Ten teams. Maryland lost three out of its last four games, and they did not score more than 70 points through that cold stretch. West Virginia was a bubble team whose loss total piled up in the Big 12, but their top five scorers are all seniors. Bob Huggins has led the Mountaineers to first-round wins in four of their last five tournament appearances.
Pick: West Virginia wins 72-67 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 4 Virginia (-5.5) vs. No. 13 Furman (South)
This is another chic upset alert pick. The Paladins average 82 points per game and have two high-scoring seniors in Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson. Furman hasn't made the tournament since 1980, so the excitement will be there. Virginia limits opponents to 60.5 points per game, and their defense remains a unique challenge. The Cavaliers were 3-7 ATS against non-conference teams this season. We're going against that trend.
Pick: Virginia wins 71-61 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State (-1.5) (South)
Utah State was a bubble team, and they slipped into the field of 68 after a strong showing in their conference tournament. Missouri has the higher seed and they shouldn't be an underdog here. The Tigers score 80.1 points per game, and they force 17.2 turnovers per game. That throws off the Aggies just enough in the second half.
Pick: Missouri wins 83-80 in an UPSET.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
- No. 1 Kansas (-21.5) vs. No. 16 Howard (South)
The Jayhawks lost the Big 12 championship, but Bill Self returns after missing the tournament because of an illness. That will be an emotional lift, and Kansas should cruise past the Bison in the second half. Elijah Hawkins and Steve Settle are capable scorers for the Bison, however, and the Jayhawks are 1-3 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. This could play out right on the line, but look for the Jayhawks to make a statement. They have won their last four openers as a No. 1 seed by an average of 26.7 points.
Pick: Kansas wins 85-60 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 1 Alabama (-22.5) vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi No. 16 (South)
The Islanders beat Southeast Missouri State 75-71 in the First Four, but they hit just 4 of 18 from 3-point range. That's not going to play out well against Alabama, which covered in all three games in the SEC tournament. The Crimson Tide is 4-3 ATS when favored by 15 or more, and they averaged 89.7 points in those games.
Pick: Alabama wins 92-65 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 5 San Diego State (-5.5) vs. No. 12 Charleston (South)
Charleston is another trendy upset pick, and with good reason. The Cougars take 30.2 three-point shots per game, and they won 31 games with that formula. San Diego State is a tough matchup given the Aztecs limit opponents to 29.3% behind the arc. That said, Charleston will be closer to home in Orlando. Get to know Ante Brzovic – a 6-foot-10 center who will be the key to the upset bid.
Pick: Charleston wins 73-68 in an UPSET.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
- No. 2 Arizona (-14.5) vs. No. 15 Princeton (South)
Mitch Henderson played for Princeton during the legendary upset of UCLA in 1996. Will history repeat itself against a Pac-12 power? The Tigers score 76.1 points per game with an up-and-down style, but they will run into problems with Arizona's frontline of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. That will add up in the second half. Arizona is 5-2 S/U and 2-5 ATS when favored between 10-20 points. The Tigers can cover here, but they need to knock down a few extra 3-pointers to do it.
Pick: Arizona wins 85-68 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 8 Arkansas (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Illinois (South)
Both teams were 3-5 in their last eight games, which makes this the standard 8-9 game that is tough to predict. The Razorbacks and Illini also have almost-identical marks in scoring offense and scoring defense. Arkansas is 3-4 ATS when favored by three points or less, but we'll stick with the favorite in an up-and-down affair.
Pick: Arkansas wins 74-70 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn (-1.5) (West)
This is another unpredictable Big Ten-SEC matchup between two inconsistent teams. Auburn lost four of its last six games and is 4-3 S/U when favored by three points or less. Iowa lost four of its last six, but the victories were against Michigan State and Indiana. The Hawkeyes are 4-2 in first-round games under Fran McCaffrey. The Tigers are 3-0 under Bruce Pearl. It's a true toss-up and a prime candidate for a fantastic finish.
Pick: Iowa wins 88-86 in an UPSET.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
- No. 5 Duke (-6.5) vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts (East)
Oral Roberts is a 30-win team that has the combination of Max Abmas – the darling of the 2021 NCAA Tournament – and 7-5 center Connor Vanover. Duke is 6-3 ATS in their nine-game winning streak, and they defend the 3-point line well. The Golden Eagles will make the Blue Devils sweat here, but Kyle Filipowski helps Duke avoid the upset bid.
Pick: Duke wins 75-70 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 2 Texas (-13.5) vs. No. 15 Colgate (Midwest)
Colgate led the nation with a 40.8% three-point percentage, so the Longhorns will have to defend well. The Raiders also are a tournament regular now. They have made the last three tournaments and lost by an average of 10.7 points per game. Texas is 1-2 ATS when favored by 10-20 points. The Longhorns win, but Colgate makes enough 3-pointers to cover late.
Pick: Texas wins 77-66 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State (-1.5) (Midwest)
Boise State is a favorite as a double-digit seed, and the Broncos have five players who average 10 points or more. Northwestern is back in the tournament. Chris Collins has done a masterful job, and the Wildcats have the size up front. Look for veteran guard Boo Buie to be the difference in crunch time. Northwestern is 4-3 S/U and 4-3 ATS as an underdog of five points or less.
Pick: Northwestern wins 69-67 in an UPSET.
REGION GUIDES: South | Midwest | West | East
- No. 1 Houston (-19.5) vs. 16 Northern Kentucky (West)
Marcus Sasser's status remains in question, but the Cougars have a defense that limited teams to 56.5 points per game. Even if Sasser cannot go, look for Houston to bounce back from the American Athletic Conference championship game. The Cougars have won their last three tournament openers by an average of 24.7 points per game.
Pick: Houston wins 76-52 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 4 Tennessee (-11) vs. No. 13 Louisiana (Midwest)
The Vols are favored by double digits, and the spread is ticked up a bit. Tennessee finished 2-3 in its last five games, and losing guard Zakai Ziegler didn't help. Forward Jordan Brown averages 19.4 points per game. The Ragin' Cajuns can score, and there is always room for one more double-digit upset on Day 1.
Pick: Louisiana wins 83-80 in an UPSET.
- No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (-2.5) (East)
The Aggies are favored; a nod to just how bad they were seeded by the committee. Buzz Williams has a solid backcourt in Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford and is comfortable keeping games in the 60s. The Nittany Lions were 6-1 ATS as underdog in their last 10 games. It's a tough call, but we'll stick with a ticked-off Texas A&M team here.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 69-64 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 2 UCLA (-17.5) vs. No. 15 UNC-Asheville (Midwest)
The Bruins are 11-0 S/U and 7-4 ATS when favored between 10-20 points. Forward Adem Bona has a shoulder injury. Will that lead to fewer minutes against UNC-Asheville forward Drew Pember, who has a nice inside-outside game? The Bruins are never threatened in the second half, but the Bulldogs hang around long enough to cover.
Pick: UCLA wins 74-58 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
