If you're not consulting KenPom ratings before making your 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket picks all the way through the Final Four, then you would be doing it wrong. It may be called March Madness because of those unforeseen upsets, early exits and fantastic finishes — but in the end, it's still about statistical sanity.
Sure, Dick Vitale is awesome, baby, and Charles Barkley gives you a lot more than Chuck-les, but Ken Pomeroy's in-depth, numbers-based bracket breakdown is no longer fancy analytics — it also carries a history of success.
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You can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 11 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to Villanova taking its second title in three years in 2018, only five teams (11 percent) that went into the tourney ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four.
Seven of the last 11 NCAA champions were rated No. 1 in KenPom. Another, Gonzaga in 2017, made the championship game. Yet another, Kentucky in 2015-16, made the Final Four.
So that's where you find the right chalk. But KenPom can also help you identify bracket sleepers and busts based on two signature stats: adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. If a team is highly rated in either area, it can make up for deficiencies on the other end.
MARCH MADNESS: Get your printable NCAA Tournament bracket
Last year, when Loyola-Chicago crashed the Final Four, it had the No. 17 KenPom defense on its side. Two years ago, South Carolina ranked 91st in offense, but made a Cinderella run to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed thanks to its third-ranked defense. In 2013, Louisville rode its seventh-ranked offense and top-ranked defense to the Final Four.
Throw out the two teams that were the biggest statistical anomalies since 2010 — VCU and Butler in 2010-11 — and nothing has been shocking in the national semifinals when taking KenPom into account. If a team is rated higher on both offense and defense, it can expect to beat anyone in any part of the tournament.
But before using KenPom to make your March Madness bracket picks, here are some things to know about this year's NCAA Tournament field, based on his ratings:
SN's BRACKET GUIDES: SOUTH | EAST | WEST | MIDWEST
KenPom:
Top eight teams in NCAA Tournament
| 1. Virginia (No. 1 in South) |
| 2. Gonzaga (No. 1 in West) |
| 3. Duke (No. 1 in East) |
| 4. Michigan State (No. 2 in East) |
| 5. Michigan (No. 2 in West) |
| 6. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest) |
| 7. Kentucky (No. 2 in Midwest) |
| 8. Tennessee (No. 2 in South) |
Top eight teams in adjusted offensive efficiency
| 1. Gonzaga (No. 1 in West) |
| 2. Virginia (No. 1 in South) |
| 3. Tennessee (No. 2 in South) |
| 4. Michigan State (No. 2 in East) |
| 5. Purdue (No. 3 in South) |
| 6. Duke (No. 1 in East) |
| 7. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest) |
| 8. Auburn (No. 5 in Midwest) |
NCAA BRACKET PICKS: DeCourcy (Duke) | Bender (Duke) | Iyer (Duke)
Top eight teams in adjusted defensive efficiency
| 1. Texas Tech (No. 3 in West) |
| 2. Michigan (No. 2 in West) |
| 3. Wisconsin (No. 5 in South) |
| 4. Kansas State (No. 4 in South) |
| 5. Virginia (No. 1 in South) |
| 6. Duke (No. 1 in East) |
| 7. VCU (No. 8 in East) |
| 8. Michigan State (No. 2 in East) |
Four most likely first-round upsets
| 1. No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Mississippi (South) |
| 2. No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (West) |
| 3. No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (South) |
| 4. No. 11 Saint Mary’s over No. 6 Villanova (South) |
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Eight most underrated teams in NCAA Tournament
| 1. Michigan State (No. 2 in East, No. 4 in KenPom) |
| 2. Wisconsin (No. 5 in South, No. 12 in KenPom) |
| 3. Auburn (No. 5 in Midwest, No. 13 in KenPom) |
| 4. Iowa State (No. 6 in Midwest, No. 16 in KenPom) |
| 5. Louisville (No. 7 in East, No. 17 in KenPom) |
| 6. Wofford (No. 7 in Midwest, No. 19 in KenPom) |
| 7. Florida (No. 10 in West, No. 28 in KenPom) |
| 8. Saint Mary’s (No. 11 in South, No. 31 in KenPom) |
Eight most overrated teams in NCAA Tournament
| 1. North Carolina (No. 1 in Midwest, No. 6 in KenPom) |
| 2. Houston (No. 3 in Midwest, No. 15 in KenPom) |
| 3. LSU (No. 3 in East, No. 18 in KenPom) |
| 4. Kansas State (No. 4 in South, No. 23 in KenPom) |
| 5. Marquette (No. 5 in West, No. 27 in KenPom) |
| 6. Ole Miss (No. 8 in South, No. 44 in KenPom) |
| 7. Washington (No. 9 in Midwest, No. 51 in KenPom) |
| 8. Belmont (No. 11 in East, No. 54 in KenPom) |
March Madness bracket picks
East Region
West Region
South Region
Midwest Region
Final Four picks
The NCAA Tournament winner is . . .
Duke. Let’s try this again. The Blue Devils are the KenPom-influenced SN pick for a second consecutive year, as they finished No. 3 in KenPom rankings again. In relation to the top KenPom team in 2018 (No. 1 Villanova winning it all and No. 2 Virginia losing in the first round), Duke falling to Kansas in overtime in the Midwest regional final was much closer to the champions' fate.
This time, however, Duke is properly seeded No. 1 in the East instead of No. 2. Its path through the East is favorable, save for the potential regional final with No. 2 Michigan State, which should have really been the No. 1 in the Midwest over North Carolina, based on KenPom.
This year, Duke, No. 6 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, is looking up this year at No. 1 KenPom Virginia (No. 2 in offense, No. 5 in defense) and No. 2 KenPom Gonzaga (No. 1 in offense, No. 16 in defense).
MORE BRACKET PICKS: DeCourcy (Duke) | Bender (Duke) | Fagan (Duke)
With Zion Williamson healthy, Duke’s balanced play on both ends is most appealing, while recent tournament results show Virginia is more volatile and Gonzaga’s defense can let down at any point.
Virginia is still set up to come through to meet Duke in an all-ACC national title game. Texas Tech is built to ruin Gonzaga’s quest for the West with the top KenPom defense in 2018-19. No. 2-seeded Kentucky rounds out our Final Four with its well-roundedness and by virtue of being in a Midwest region where the other three top-four seeds — North Carolina, Houston and Kansas — have inflated value.
As talented as last year’s Duke team was, it didn’t get all the bracket breaks needed vs. the rest of the elite field. This year, how the Blue Devils stack up in KenPom makes them due to rule the court for the first time in four years.
