Oregon and Saint Louis were considered among the most well-rounded dark horse programs entering the 2018-19 college basketball season.
Oregon boasted the nation’s No. 3 recruiting class, headlined by Bol Bol, and returned standout guard Payton Pritchard and forward Kenny Wooten. Saint Louis was supposed to be lifted by incoming freshman Carte’Are Gordon (No. 78 ranked recruit) and highly-touted transfers Tramaine Isabell and Dion Wiley. The Billikens returned four regulars from the previous campaign.
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As a result, many picked Oregon and Saint Louis to win their respective conferences. But by January, they were long-shots to make the NCAA Tournament at all, having lost core pieces of their rosters to injury and transfer in the middle of the season.
After winning their conference tournaments to book unlikely tickets to March Madness — and potentially discovering their identities in the process — they'll be popular picks to continue those late-season surges in the NCAA Tournament.
Oregon is the No. 12 seed in the South Region and will play Wisconsin in the first round. Saint Louis, meanwhile, is the No. 13 seed in the East Region and will play Virginia Tech in the first round.
Could the Ducks or Billikens spring an upset? Let's explore what makes them so intriguing this March.
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Oregon (23-12, 10-8)
In truth, the trouble for Oregon started before Bol suffered a season-ending foot injury in mid-December. The Ducks lost nonconference games to Iowa (NET: 43), Texas Southern (NET: 230) and Houston (NET: 4) with their star 7-2 big man in the lineup producing consistent double-doubles. Once the projected NBA lottery pick went down, though, early-season warning signs became a midseason free fall.
The Ducks went 4-4 in January, essentially knocking them out of at-large contention given the weakness of the Pac-12. Three straight losses in late-February made things even worse for coach Dana Altman.
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Then something funny happened. Oregon finished the season on an eight-game winning streak, beating Washington and Arizona State twice each en route to a Pac-12 Tournament triumph. It averaged 18 points more than its opponents over that span. It held teams to 35 percent shooting overall and 23 percent from three.
Defense, of course, was expected to be Oregon’s biggest strength entering the campaign, and while Bol’s injury might have eaten away the unit’s ceiling, it did not keep the Ducks from morphing into an elite guarding team late. Wooten is a monster at that end of the floor, averaging more than two blocks per game for the second straight year while effectively switching onto multiple positions. Miles Norris, Francis Okoro and Louis King are also long and capable of securing the paint for stretches. Even Pritchard, the experienced guard known more for his offensive skill set, has performed well defensively.
Wisconsin and Kansas State are each mediocre offensive teams, ranking 52nd and 102nd in KenPom’s defensive rating. That means Oregon’s defense will have a real shot at powering a Sweet 16 trip if it can continue to play with the same collective intensity it's showed in recent weeks.
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Saint Louis (22-12, 10-8)
Saint Louis was already reeling when Gordon, its star freshman, announced he would transfer to DePaul in January. It had lost four times in nonconference play, including a letdown to Southern Illinois (NET: 143).
Without Gordon, its chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament appeared shot.
But Saint Louis found its defensive identity late, much like Oregon, and stormed through the A-10 Tournament to earn an auto-bid to March Madness despite the loss of one of its top contributors. It won six of its last seven games, thumping Davidson in the A-10 semifinal, 67-44, in the process.
There's evidence to suggest the Billikens have become the kind of force they were expected to be from the beginning of the season. They shortened their rotation down the stretch, leaning even more heavily on Javon Bess, Hasahn French, Jordan Goodwin and Isabell than before. D.J. Foreman, Fred Thatch Jr. and Maryl and transfer Dion Wiley split time for the final spot on the floor. Concentrated minutes for top contributors has helped boost overall production.
Every regular but Wiley is considered at least an average defender, and French and Goodwin grade as elite defenders. The question will be whether Saint Louis can shoot well enough for its defensive muscle to matter. After all, it ranked 296th in the nation in field goal percentage (42 percent) during the regular season and did not improve much in that respect in the A-10 Tournament. Bess in particular will need to get hot for the team to beat Virginia Tech on Friday.
The Hokies are adept at both ends of the floor and have gone toe-to-toe with powerhouse ACC foes in recent months. But they are also one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country, and a defensive rock fight could bode well for Saint Louis' hopes of an upset.