In a battle of dark-horse March Madness squads, sixth-seeded Kentucky takes on 11th-seeded Providence in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Both teams enjoyed a solid season overall, but oddsmakers have listed the Wildcats as -4.5 favorites after they went 5-1 to finish the season.
One thing both of these teams have in common is great coaching. John Calipari's reputation precedes him. He's a March Madness staple with a 38-12 NCAA Tournament record that dates back to his days coaching UMass in the 1990s. Ed Cooley, meanwhile, has put PC on the map and brought the smallest state in the nation to the Big Dance seven times since he became the Friars' head coach in 2011.
Before these squads duel on Friday night (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS), here's everything to know about betting on Kentucky vs. Providence in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this first-round game.
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Kentucky vs. Providence odds
- Spread: Kentucky -4.5 (-110) | Providence +4.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 145.5 (-110); UNDER 145.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kentucky -185; Providence +150
Oddsmakers clearly believe in Kentucky's momentum entering the tournament, as we don't typically see offenses in the top 10 percentile of the nation like PC getting 4.5 points in the first round. They also must have short memories, as Providence made the Sweet 16 last season while the Wildcats got knocked out by a 15-seed in the first round. But Calipari ranks among the most winningest coaches in March Madness history, and his squad has size, length, and experience, so the line could be just where it should be.
Three betting trends to watch
— After struggling against the spread earlier in the season, Kentucky has gone 11-5 ATS in its past 16 games. However, the Wildcats suffered losses to Vanderbilt in two of its past three games, one of which came in the SEC Conference Tournament.
— The Friars have lost four of their past five games — straight up and ATS. They are 6-6 ATS when listed as underdogs, but they have covered their past five spreads when listed as undies between +1 and +5.5.
— The OVER has gone 19-11 in KU's past 30 games, and in six of PC's past seven contests.
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
Kentucky key players
Kentucky has plenty of experience, with seniors serving as four of its top five scorers. Big man Oscar Tshiebwe leads the charge for the Wildcats down low, imposing his 6-9, 260-pound body on defenders and crashing the boards to the tune of an NCAA-leading 13.1 per game. He's joined by fellow 6-9 big Jacob Toppin, who has dropped 21 points in Kentucky's past two games. Fellow senior Antonio Reeves is Calipari's crossover king and slasher extraordinaire. This is a team that passes well, relies on interior size and athleticism, and gobbles up second-chance opportunities. Only three teams grabbed more offensive boards than Calipari's squad this season.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Providence key players
Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins leads a talented PC offense with 16.1 points per game, but he has plenty of help in the scoring department from Ed Croswell (13.2 PPG), Devin Carter (13.1 PPG), Noah Locke (11.1 PPG), and Jared Bynum (10.0 PPG). Hopkins' strong slashing skills, ability to draw fouls, and 37.8 percent three-point shooting make for a deadly offensive combo. Croswell leads the front court with his 6-8, 240-pound frame. Providence ranks 21st nationally in free throws made and 36th in scoring.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Oscar Tshiebwe vs. Ed Croswell
Both schools have strong interior offenses, but Tshiebwe could look like a man among boys this weekend. The Congo native has a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-1 standing reach, and he has demonstrated all season how dominating he can be on the offensive and defensive glass. It could get even uglier if Calipari rolls out Toppin alongside Tshiebwe for the majority of the game, as the 6-8 Croswell and 6-7 Hopkins are PC's only main rotational cogs standing taller than 6-3. Hopkins leads the Friars with 8.5 boards per game — and Providence ranks 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate — but Tshiebwe poses a challenge not typically bestowed upon Cooley's squad.
Kentucky vs. Providence stat to know
Talk about a battle of offense. Kentucky ranks 35th in offensive rating and 159th in defensive rating, while Providence ranks 26th on offense and 191st on D. They combine to average 153.2 points per game while surrendering a combined total of 139.3 (PC averaged three more points per game this season, while KU allowed three fewer ppg). Based on everything we have seen from these two programs this year, we're strongly inclined to bet the OVER of 145.5.
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Kentucky vs. Providence prediction
Calipari has six Final Four appearances and one national title to his name, and we expect he'll lead Kentucky to a much more favorable first-round result than its upset loss to 15-seed St. Peter's last year. The Wildcats have size, strength, and experience on their side going into this matchup, so it's difficult to trust an inconsistent PC defense to help mount the big W here.
Of course, weird things happen in March, and Kentucky's defense isn't exactly reliable against strong offensive teams. If you feel uncomfortable with the -4.5 spread, you could either buy a couple of points, bet Kentucky's -185 moneyline, or opt to solely bet the OVER and root for a scoring explosion. However, we feel pretty confident that the Wildcats will dominate on the interior and feast on Providence's weaknesses.
Prediction: Kentucky 78, Providence 70. Kentucky (-4.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (145.5).
See what BetQL is projecting for Kentucky vs. Providence, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
