The 2023 March Madness Tournament has been a wild roller coaster ride, and it should get even better now that we have reached the Sweet 16. One of the highlights of what should be a fantastic couple of days of hoops, three-seed Kansas State will take on seven-seed Michigan State at Madison Square Garden on Thursday (Time and channel TBD). We have all the BetMGM odds, betting trends, best bets, and predictions to get you ready for this exciting regional semifinal between borderline sleepers.
Throngs of bettors had Kentucky and Marquette advancing to the Sweet 16 out of the East, turning Kansas State and Michigan State into relative sleepers to come out of the Round of 32. Take a look at the Round 2 sharp betting numbers for each game — basically a breakdown of how all sharp betting money was wagered, and how often each team appeared on betting tickets — according to BetQL:
| Teams | % of money (ML) | % of tickets (ML) | % of money (ATS) | % of tickets (ATS) |
| Kansas St. | 49% | 34% | 19% | 38% |
| Kentucky | 51% | 66% | 81% | 62% |
| Teams | % of money (ML) | % of tickets (ML) | % of money (ATS) | % of tickets (ATS) |
| Marquette | 55% | 72% | 64% | 59% |
| Mich. St. | 45% | 28% | 36% | 41% |
As you can see, the higher-seeded Wildcats of K. State got no love from spread bettors against John Calipari's 'Cats of Kentucky. And the second-seeded Golden Eagles were also heavily favored by the betting public to eliminate Tom Izzo's Spartans. But it was Kansas State and Michigan State that got the last laughs in their respective matchups, leading to a Sweet 16 matchup of clearly-underrated teams.
For Kansas State, Markquis Nowell has emerged as a star. The senior guard, who transferred from Little Rock before last season, has flourished at the right time. He finished the Wildcats' opening-round win over Montana with 17 points, 14 assists, and six assists, and followed that up with a 27-point, nine-rebound effort in the victory over Michigan State. But this is far from a one-man show — swingman Keyontae Johnson and big man Nae'Qwan Tomlin have been awesome in their own rights — and Jerome Tang's squad has been getting it done on both ends of the floor.
MORE K. STATE: Markquis Nowell dazzles with no-look passes, clutch shooting vs. Kentucky
But Izzo knows a little something about getting it done on both ends. The Spartans have a ton of stud former recruits, multiple offensive firecrackers, and superb team defense. The senior combo of guard Tyson Walker and big man Joey Hauser have been the main catalysts all season, and the first two rounds of the Big Dance have been no different. The duo has combined for 54 points, 23 rebounds, and seven assists through two rounds.
MORE MSU: Izzo has the Spartans marching again after a bully-ball win over Marquette
Which of these skilled squads will advance to the Elite Eight? Here's everything to know about betting on Kansas State vs. Michigan State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.
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Kansas State vs. Michigan State odds
- Spread: Michigan State -1.5 (-110) | Kansas State +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 138.5 (-110); UNDER 138.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State -125 | Kansas State +105
Oddsmakers don't care about seven-seeds vs. three-seeds — they care about matchups and track records. The Spartans clearly impressed in their 69-60 dismantling of Marquette on Sunday, a game that saw Izzo's squad shoot just 2-of-16 from three-point land, commit 13 turnovers, and rack up 19 fouls. But MSU held the Golden Eagles to 38.5 percent shooting, just days after houlding USC to 41.4 percent in the first round. The Spartans also got to the line 23 times and made the most of the opportunities by knocking down 19 free throws. That kind of big D and clutch shooting could swing this one under the bright lights of MSG.
Three betting trends to watch
— Kansas State sports the nation's seventh-best cover rate this season, covering in 66.7 percent of games (23-11 against the spread).
— Michigan State has gone just 17-16 ATS this season, but the Spartans are 7-2 ATS against ranked opponents and 5-3 ATS at neutral sites.
— The OVER went 8-3 across both teams' away games this season, but just a combined 6-8 in neutral-site games.
Kansas State key players
As we alluded to in the intro, first-year K. State coach Jerome Tang has gotten the most out of All-Big 12 First Team selections Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. The duo has done it all this season — with Johnson averaging 17.7 points on 51.9 percent shooting and 7.1 rebounds per game, and Nowell averaging 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per game. They also space the floor well with their outside shooting, with Johnson shooting 41.1 percent from distance and Nowell maintaining a 35 percent long-range stroke. But don't forget about 6-10 big man Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who can bang down low as well as giddy-up to the hoop off the dribble. Did we mention that Nowell and Tomlin are both from Harlem? The Wildcats will almost assuredly make Michigan State work from the opening tip to the final whistle.
Michigan State key players
Like we mentioned earlier, guard Tyson Walker — a New York native — has been the most instrumental cog in the Spartans' wheel (14.5 ppg, 46.2 FG%). But big man Joey Hauser has come alive in the tournament, turning into quite the disruptor (15.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg). Guards A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins have also been no slouches — they can each catch fire quickly, and they keep opposing defenses honest when guarding Walker. Forwards Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler, and Carson Cooper round out a formidable front court alongside Hauser. Practically every rotational big can defend well, guard the pick-and-roll, and help crash boards.
Best individual matchup: Keyontae Johnson vs. A.J. Hoggard
Johnson's story is one that will dominate March Madness narratives if Kansas State continues winning. He collapsed on the court at Florida in 2020, and turned down a $5 million insurance payment so that he could return to hoops and chase his NBA dreams. He hit some massive shots down the stretch of K. State's victory over Kentucky, including a dagger to go up five with 1:20 left. As for Hoggard, he's one of the best passing guards in the nation, ranking 11th with 6.0 in assists per game (Nowell ranked second on the season with 7.8). Hoggard gives up a little length to Johnson, but they are similarly sized and should wear each other out on the defensive side of the floor. It's a matchup we can't wait to see, and one that should make this game an unforgettable March Madness battle.
Kansas State vs. Michigan State: Stat to know
16.9. That's how many assists per game Kansas State has averaged this season, seventh-most in the nation. The Wildcats also get to the line a ton, making 15.8 free throws per game (31st) on 21.1 attempts (51st). But while K. State has volume, Michigan State has shooting efficiency — the Spartans rank third in the country in three-point shooting (39.4%) and 45th in free-throw shooting (75.4%). It will be interesting to see two physical squads going against strong foul-drawing offenses, and an MSU squad that shoots the lights out against a K. State defense that ranks 15th in opponent three-point percentage (30.0%).
Kansas State vs. Michigan State prediction
This has the makings of a very intense, physical game that could be an instant-classic when all is said and done. Both squads have played great defense throughout championship week and the NCAA Tournament, and it's a shame either has to lose. But we like Kansas State to keep the momentum going and dance into the Elite Eight. While the Spartans' defense deserves plenty of credit for this run, their offense won't have enough in the tank to keep up with the Wildcats' core of Johnson, Nowell, and Tomlin.
Tang has also proven himself to be one of the more skilled head coaches in the nation, making in-game adjustments and drawing up big plays that we usually only see out of veteran maestros like Izzo, who will be breaking clipboards on the opposing sideline this Thursday. It's hard to bet against the Michigan State legend, who has taken the Spartans to a whopping eight Final Fours throughout his illustrious career. But this Wildcats team is built to win it all, and it's hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. Circle this one on the calendars, and circle Kansas State +100 on your betting card.
Prediction: Kansas State 65, Michigan State 62. Kansas State (+105, +1.5) wins straight up and the UNDER (138.5) hits by a hair.
