As women's college basketball continues to surge in popularity amongst hoops fans and bettors alike, so does the legend of Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes. It's been a wild ride for the greatest scorer in NCAA hoops, and we'll get you ready from a betting perspective as the show continues for Iowa this weekend.
The only box Clark and company have yet to check off: a national title. Iowa will have a shot at just that on Sunday if the Hawkeyes can first get past UConn in the Final Four on Friday (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN, ESPN+, Sling, Fubo). It's another must-see game, and most likely another heavily bet one.
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Iowa already slayed a monster, beating reigning-champion LSU in a rematch of the 2023 championship. Clark hit nine three-pointers in that game, finishing with 41 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds. She has shattered countless records during this epic run by the Hawkeyes, who are now 33-4.
With two games left to eternal glory, Iowa now faces Paige Bueckers and the red-hot Huskies in perhaps the most improbable of Geno Auriemma's 23 Final Four appearances. UConn has survived and persevered through multiple tough injuries, finding a way to get past powerhouses like USC, Duke, and Syracuse.
MORE: Buy tickets to the Final Four and National Championship!
Can Clark and the Hawkeyes fulfill what feels like their destiny and get back to the National Championship? Or, will Auriemma lead the Huskies to a massive upset en route to the program's record 13th title game since 1995?
Let's dive headfirst into this epic semifinals clash, analyzing the BetMGM odds and unveiling our best bets to advance to the National Championship game.
Iowa vs. UConn odds in Final Four
Updated Final Four odds list No. 1 seed Iowa as a 2.5-point betting favorite entering Friday's matchup, according to BetMGM. The Hawkeyes' -150 moneyline translates to an implied win probability of 60 percent.
- Odds: Iowa (-2.5), -150 ML, O/U 162.5
- Date: Friday, April 5
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN/ESPN+/Sling/Fubo
- Arena: RocketMortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, OH (buy tickets)
Iowa (33-4, 15-3 in Big 10)
We talk a lot about Caitlin Clark because she's the highest-scoring player in the history of college basketball, but this Iowa team is far from a one-woman army.
Iowa is the top-scoring team in the nation, and no program shoots better from inside the arc (59.7%) or hits more jumpers outside the arc (11.1 per game). The Hawkeyes also lead the nation in assists (21.2 per game), rebound the ball well, and take (and make) a ton of free throws.
Lisa Bluder's squad also pushes the pace as well as any team in the nation this season, which we saw in Iowa's massive victory over Angel Reese and the Tigers on Monday. The Hawkeyes controlled the tempo, helped Clark get to her spots, and managed to get Reese into foul trouble. Textbook execution from one of the better college teams in recent memory.
Key players
Caitlin Clark, G, Sr. (6-0): 32.0 ppg, 9.0 apg, 7.3 rpg
Kate Martin, G, Sr. (6-0): 13.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.4 apg
Hannah Stuelke, F, So. (6-2): 13.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.2 apg
UConn (33-5, 18-0 in Big East)
A lot of talk in the NCAA world has revolved around Dan Hurley's UConn Huskies men's team, but Geno Auriemma's women's team might be the most underrated story of the year. The Lady Huskies lost multiple key cogs to injury this season — 70-plus points of production — and somehow had the resolve and resiliency to get to the Final Four in a stacked bracket.
Like Clark, former USA hoops teammate Paige Bueckers is a superstar. She has averaged almost 28 points per game since the Big East conference tournament, and there never seems to be a moment too big for her. Aaliyah Edwards, a strong and tenacious penetrator with a knack for big rebounds and timely defense, will also be crucial. Do they have enough complementary shooting around them to stretch the floor for them and stave off double-teams?
Another question is UConn's defense, which tends to funnel toward the interior and sometimes gets burned by perimeter shooting. Let Iowa get open looks from beyond the three-point arc and you face inevitable doom — only one Hawkeyes' rotational player shoots worse than 36 percent from long range.
Key players
Paige Bueckers, G, Sr. (5-11): 22.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.9 apg
Aaliyah Edwards, F, Sr. (6-3): 17.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.0 apg
Ashlynn Shade, G, Fr. (5-10): 11.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg
TICKETS: Final Four | National Championship
Iowa vs. UConn prediction
As impressive as Auriemma's Huskies have been — and as much as we like Paige Bueckers — we can't possibly pick against Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes. They have been dominant inside and out, and they seem to be playing their best basketball of the season right here, right now.
UConn allowed USC to hit nine three-pointers in the Elite Eight, and a few rounds ago Syracuse knocked down a whopping 13 treys against the Huskies. That's bad news for a program going up against the best three-point shooting team in the history of women's college basketball. Expect Clark and company to fire away, keep the pace too fast for UConn's liking, and easily outlast the Huskies.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Iowa 85, UConn 72 — The Hawkeyes win an epic battle (-150), cover the spread (-2.5), and advance to the national title game. The score finishes UNDER the total (162.5).
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