At 1 p.m. EST, Indiana looked like its March Madness hopes were dashed.
Down 17 to Michigan in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, the Hoosiers appeared to be ending the season with a whimper. They were 9-11 against the conference in the regular season and 18-12 overall. Then, however, Indiana clawed its way back in. The Hoosiers ultimately came away with a 74-69 win and a date with Big Ten co-winner and No. 1 seed Illinois on Friday.
It was a gutty performance from Mike Woodson's squad and featured 24 points from Trayce Jackson-Davis and 17 from Xavier Johnson. Had Indiana lost this game, nearly all hopes of going dancing would have been extinguished and there would have been even more head-scratching about Woodson's hire.
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Now the question becomes: Is the win against Michigan enough? How does Indiana's resume fare as an at-large team?
Indiana and the Big Ten Tournament
Indiana already has one huge win under its belt. Beating Michigan in that fashion in Indianapolis is a huge victory for the Hoosiers, and it's going to be hard for the committee to ignore. If Indiana wants to definitively punch its ticket, a win against Illinois on Friday would do just that. That's no mean feat -- Illinois beat the Hoosiers 74-57 in February -- but then again Michigan beat the Hoosiers 80-62 in late January.
Perhaps Indiana is catching fire at the right time.
Indiana's strength of victory
In the regular season, Indiana was 3-7 against Quadrant 1 opponents. Its wins were Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Purdue. Indiana dropped games to Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue. To Woodson's squad's credit, Indiana won three of its last five games against Quad 1 teams. Indiana was 3-4 against Quadrant 2 games, with wins over St. John's, Maryland, and Minnesota. The Hoosiers suffered losses to Syracuse, Penn State, Michigan, and Northwestern.
Indiana's weak spots
Indiana lost to Rutgers at the beginning of March, its only Quadrant 3/4 loss of the season. Indiana was 12-1 against such opponents during the regular season.
Indiana's KenPom, RPI, SOS and quadrants
— KenPom: Indiana is No. 43 in the latest KenPom rankings.
— RPI: Indiana ranks No. 76 in the latest RPI standings.
— Strength of schedule: Indiana is No. 39 in the latest SOS rankings and No. 57 in strength of record.
— Quadrants: Indiana is 3-7 in Quadrant 1 games, 6-11 against Quads 1 and 2 combined. The Hoosiers have one loss in Quad 3.
— NET: Indiana is No. 43 in NET
How Indiana makes March Madness
Indiana could punch its ticket with a win against Illinois, but even without one Indiana might be at Last Four In status. The win also puts Michigan a bit further on the wrong side of the bubble, and winning in a clear head-to-head against another potential team in the field might solidify Indiana's tournament hopes.
With that being said, nothing is set in stone. Indiana hasn't made the tournament since its Sweet 16 appearance in 2016. Woodson and the Hoosiers would love to beat Illinois on Friday to make their bid official, but as always, it's one game at a time in Indianapolis during the tournament.
