Despite losing four starters from last season's Final Four squad, Jon Scheyer's first-ever Duke team is loaded with talent and peaking at the right time. An ACC Tournament championship showcased his team's ability to grind out wins in March, and for the fifth-youngest team in the field, playing your best basketball in the latter stages of the season is all one could want.
While Duke enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed, their odds to win March Madness (+3000) are shorter than two No. 3 seeds (Kansas State, Xavier) and two No. 4 seeds (Virginia, Indiana). Along with futures odds on this year's National Champion, BetMGM has alternative markets where you can wager on the round in which a certain school will advance.
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Should you bet on Duke to advance to the Sweet 16? We'll look at Duke's 2023 NCAA Tournament odds for the first weekend and break down the Blue Devils' first-round opponent (Oral Roberts) and most likely second-round opponent (Tennessee) while advising the best way to bet them to advance to the second weekend.
Duke's 2023 NCAA Tournament Odds: First Round vs. Oral Roberts
Moneyline odds (implied win probability): -275 (implied win probability 73.33 percent)
Although Oral Roberts swept through Summit League play on the back of star point guard Max Abmas, the Golden Eagles have their hands full matching up with Duke's size and athleticism. Duke's implied win probability says exactly that, as the Blue Devils have the highest implied win probability of any five-seed in the first round.
Sure, on the surface it seems as if 7-5 ORU center Conor Vanover can hold his own against the nation's tallest team, and although Vanover's connected on 65.6 percent of his two-point shots (103-of-157) he's more of a pick-and-pop threat than a back-to-the-basket beast. Vanover's almost attempted as many three-pointers (129) as he has two-pointers despite being the tallest player in the NCAA Tournament field.
Quick scout on Connor Vanover:
— Duke Update (@UpdateDuke) March 13, 2023
7’5
Loves to turn and shoot
No post game
Comfortable shooting from anywhere
Doesn’t fight for boards
Paint presence only bc of height
Anywhere between 2-4 screens per possession/often pops pic.twitter.com/ODek8unOPk
If Vanover can't assert his physicality down low, Duke is likely to hold their own against him on the perimeter. Duke can throw either 7-0 Kyle Filipowski or 6-8 Mark Mitchell on him, as both wings are capable of limiting him on the offensive end.
Oral Roberts wouldn't boast the nation's longest-active win streak (17 games) if they relied on just two players, as the rest of the Golden Eagles' eight-man rotation enters March Madness with above-average offensive ratings. ORU's complied the seventh-best effective field goal percentage (56.1 percent) while boasting the nation's lowest offensive turnover rate (13.2 percent), which figures to lend itself to a closely contested first-round matchup.
Despite the Golden Eagles' crisp offensive metrics, ORU struggled on the offensive end in their two non-conference meetings against Saint Mary's and Houston, two schools that rank within the top 10 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (SMC No. 9, UH No. 4). In both contests, they were held below their current offensive rating (1.15 points per possession), scoring 1.00 and 0.67 points per possession, respectively.
Duke isn't a top 10 defense per KenPom's metrics, but it's not too far off at No. 24, holding opponents to 0.95 points per possession. If ORU's unable to score over 1.00 points per possession, it will likely be a one-and-done in this year's NCAA Tournament. We agree with the Blue Devils' pricing of a -275 favorite on the moneyline, expecting Scheyer's team to grind out a victory against a stingy Golden Eagles bunch. How will the Blue Devils then fare in the Round of 32?
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Duke's 2023 NCAA Tournament Odds: Round of 32 vs. Tennessee/Louisiana
BetMGMs odds to advance to the Sweet 16: +150 (implied probability 40 percent)
In the Round of 32, Duke would play the winner of No. 4 Tennessee/No. 13 Louisiana. Chances are, Duke will most likely face fourth-seeded Tennessee, as the Volunteers currently sit as -550 favorites on the moneyline (implied win probability 84.62 percent). KenPom's ratings agree with that notion, giving the Volunteers an 84 percent chance of taking care of the Ragin' Cajuns.
While Erik Haslam's college basketball ratings actually have Tennessee defeating Duke by 2.57 points on a neutral floor (65.85-63.28), a season-ending knee injury to Tennessee's lead guard, Zakai Zeigler, is significant enough to make the projected point spread closer to a pick 'em. It's likely the Volunteers open up as favorites in this matchup, though, especially when Tennessee's odds to reach the Sweet 16 (-110) are greater than Duke's at the moment.
Unlike Oral Roberts, Tennessee has several frontcourt pieces who can hold their own against the Blue Devils' frontline on the glass. While Duke has posted the eighth-best offensive rebound rate (36.2 percent), Tennessee has corralled 36.8 percent of their missed shots, good for the fifth-best mark in D-1.
Part of the reason Tennessee grabs a high percentage of their missed shots, though, is due to the fact it tends to heave up a good deal of bricks. The Volunteers rank 196th in effective field goal percentage, connecting on just 32.9 percent of their three-point attempts (227th in D-1). They've had some rough offensive showings this season, scoring under 60 points four times, and scoring consistently against a versatile Duke defense could be a challenge.
Tennessee's relied on its stifling defense to earn a No. 4 seed, entering the NCAA Tournament ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency (88.0 points allowed per 100 possessions). It could certainly struggle to score 60-plus points against Duke, but at the same time, it's capable of holding the Blue Devils under 60 points.
From a personnel standpoint, this second-round game's likely a wash in the frontcourt, as Volunteer big men Jonas Aidoo, Olivier Nkamhoua, Uros Plavsic, and Tobe Awaka can hang with Dereck Lively, Ryan Young, Filipowski, and Mitchell. That could mean this game comes down to whichever backcourt steps up in crunch time.
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If that's the case, you have to like Duke's chances of getting to the Sweet 16, as guards Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor's ability to create off the dribble is more reliable than Volunteer guards Santiago Vescovi, Tyreke Key, and Josiah Jordan-James' scoring ability. It's going to be a rock fight, but Duke's slight edge on the offensive end could be the difference.
While the Blue Devils likely have the upper hand in making it to the second weekend, it's probably not wise to bet on their Sweet 16 prop at +150, though. Sporting News' Edward Sutelan's model gives Duke just a 28-percent chance to advance to the Sweet 16, meaning the true odds should be priced around +257. A +150 price tag on Duke to advance to the Sweet 16 isn't sweet enough to bet on, but that's not to say Duke can't knock off Tennessee.
The best way to go about betting on Duke to advance to the second weekend would be to hold off on betting on them in their first-round matchup against Oral Roberts and then betting their moneyline in the second round against Tennessee. While we think Oral Roberts can keep things close with Duke, we wouldn't advise taking Duke on the spread in the first round, and there are better ways to dish out your bankroll than bet Duke's first-round moneyline at -275.
Duke's moneyline could hover around the +115 mark in a potential second-round matchup with Tennessee, and in this instance, playing Duke's moneyline is the way we'd lean.
To compare stats for Duke's future matchups -- or any matchup -- for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, check out PoolGenius' exclusive Predictor Tool.
