In what should be one of the better games of the second round, top-seeded Houston takes on ninth-seeded Auburn on Saturday evening (7:10 p.m. ET, TBS). The Cougars, ranked No. 1 on the KenPom and No. 2 on the final AP Poll, will look to make its fourth consecutive Sweet 16 but could be without star guard Marcus Sasser due to a groin injury. They also find themselves essentially playing a de facto road game, as the NCAA unfairly put Auburn in the region of the bracket that plays in Birmingham, a two-hour drive from the Tigers' home base. We have all the odds, trends, and betting predictions to get you ready for what should be a fantastic second-round bout.
Houston beat 16-seed Northern Kentucky 63-52 in a game that ended up being a little too close for coach Kelvin Sampson's comfort. Sampson had to pull Sasser at halftime after his leading scorer appeared to aggravate his groin injury, prompting some nail biting for Cougar Nation with their squad up only 30-27 at intermission. Houston finally pulled away late in the second half, leading the frame 33-25 for a 63-52 victory, but this hardly looked like the team that dominated all season en route to a 32-3 record.
Ninth-seeded Auburn had a close first-round shave, too, despite the fact that the atmosphere basically mirrored a home-game setting for the fortunate Tigers. Bruce Pearl's squad prevailed 83-75 over eighth-seed Iowa, with the Tigers weathering a 49-point second-half surge by the Hawkeyes with 52 points of their own. Auburn wins with full-team grit-and-grind on both sides of the floor and has the kind of depth that could give a Sasser-less Cougars team some trouble.
Will we see another early-tournament stunner? Here's everything to know about betting on Houston vs. Auburn in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Round of 32 matchup.
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Houston vs. Auburn odds
- Spread: Houston -5.5 (-110) | Auburn +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 131.5 (-110); UNDER 131.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -250 | Auburn +200
The oddsmakers are trusting the Cougars' track record both this season and across the past few NCAA Tournaments. Before even hearing an update on Sasser, the sportsbooks had Houston favored by six. The total strikes us as even more surprising since both these squads are pretty good defensively, but Houston averaged 74.7 points this season while Auburn averaged 73.
Three betting trends to watch
— Auburn went 3-1 against the spread versus ranked opponents this season.
— Auburn and Houston each went just 9-8 ATS combined on the road and in neutral sites this season.
— The OVER went 20-13 in Auburn's games this season, but just 16-19 in Houston's.
Houston key players
With Sasser on the shelf, this is Jarace Walker's squad. A projected lottery pick, Walker might be the best defensive player in the NCAA, but he can also drop 16-25 points with relative ease. Houston also has J'wan Roberts, a constant double-double threat, wreaking havoc at the small forward position, and guard Jamal Shead serving as a playmaker and shot-creator. The Cougars are very good without Sasser but obviously nowhere near as elite as when he's healthy. If what we're now hearing about Shead's knee is true, it could be a long evening in Birmingham for this No. 1 seed.
Auburn key players
Big man Johni Broome, an imposing presence on the interior, recorded his 10th double-double of the season in Thursday's win over Northern Kentucky. He also hit some clutch free throws to cement the victory, proving that the moment is not too big for the 20-year-old forward. Auburn also enjoyed complementary efforts from "the others" (as Shaq calls them). Guard Allen Flanigan had 10 points 10 boards, and four assists. Wendell Green Jr., Jaylin Wiliams, and K.D. Johnson also all scored in double-figures, as did freshman guard Tre Donaldson, who hit three triples.
Best individual matchup: Jarace Walker vs. Johni Broome
We'd love to get more creative here, but these two are the cream of the crop of this game if Sasser sits. They are similarly sized — Walker stands 6-8, 240 pounds with a 7-2 wingspan while Broome is listed at 6-10, 235 pounds. The big men should be physical down low early and often in this one.
Houston vs. Auburn stat to know
56.4. That's how many points per game Houston surrendered this season. The Cougars were the only team in the nation that ranked top six in both offensive and defensive rating on the year.
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Houston vs. Auburn prediction
Auburn has a very strong opportunity to mount the upset of the second round. The Tigers have a strong, athletic rotation and they're basically playing in their backyard. Houston, which just struggled at times with a 16 seed from a low-major, could be without Sasser and apparently Sampson is "very concerned" about Shead's knee. We might roll out a two-way teaser with Auburn's spread and the OVER, but we're more than likely just going to bet the Tigers' spread on its own and hope for some more history.
Prediction: Auburn 72, Houston 69. Auburn (+5.5) wins straight up and the OVER hits with ease (131.5).
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