Final Four predictions for March Madness: Teams with the best odds to reach Phoenix in 2024

March delivered on the madness in 2023.

It feels like a safe bet to load up the Final Four with nothing but No. 1 and 2 seeds, but a year ago, No. 4 Connecticut, No. 5 Miami, No. 5 San Diego State, and No. 9 Florida Atlantic wound up reaching Houston. On March 14, those teams' odds to advance that far were +500, +2000, +875, and +3500, respectively. The Huskies and Aztecs might not have been major long-shots, but the Hurricanes and Owls sure were.

There might wind up being more chaos headed fans' way in 2024. There aren't many teams that feel like runaway favorites to reach the Final Four, but in each region, the top four seeds are the only ones with odds below +1000 to reach Phoenix.

Picking the Final Four teams is crucial for winning bracket pools, and it can also be a nice way to win some money on the futures' market. With that in mind, let's look at the odds for the Final Four and use SN's projection model to see which teams could be some of the best bets to win their regions.

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Final Four predictions for March Madness

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

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East Region odds, best bets

Connecticut is the only team in this year's field that is an odds-on favorite to reach the Final Four. Other regions have their leaders, but the Huskies have negative odds to be among the last teams left to play.

Florida Atlantic was a No. 9 seed last year with +3500 odds to reach the Final Four when it accomplished that feat a season ago. This year, the Owls are a No. 8 seed and sit at +2000 odds to get to Glendale. It will be a challenge in a region that features three of last year's Final Four teams, including both the reigning national champion and runner-up.

SN's model likes BYU as the top sleeper, giving the Cougars a 6.9-percent chance to win the region. Connecticut is a huge favorite at 33.8 percent, but Iowa State (21.1 percent) and Auburn (17.2 percent) aren't far behind and could be decent value picks with the second- and third-lowest odds.

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)

Midwest Region odds, best bets

Is anyone going to trust Purdue after losing to a No. 16 seed last year? Bookmakers appear quick to forget with the Boilermakers priced as the favorite to win the region. Beyond Purdue, the odds largely go in order by seed.

Kansas and Gonzaga might be fourth and fifth, but no one is going to sleep on two of the most seasoned teams in March. South Carolina is not getting much love with the ninth-best odds despite coming in as the No. 6 seed.

Colorado State could be a team to watch. The Rams have +5000 odds, but the model likes them as a solid bet to top Texas and potentially go on a mini run (1.5 percent chance to win the region). Still, it's largely a three-team race between Purdue (37.4 percent), Tennessee (20.3 percent), and Creighton (14.5 percent).

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

South Region odds, best bets

Houston sure looks like a comfortable bet to reach the Final Four. The Cougars trail only Connecticut in odds to reach the Final Four, and they're SN's model's favorite with a 44.3-percent chance to win the South.

Nebraska could be an intriguing option at +3000 odds. Keisei Tominaga has been taking a star turn this postseason, and he could be ready for March's big stage. Wisconsin's odds trail well behind the top four, but at +1800, there's certainly value with the Badgers.

There are three teams tied in odds behind Houston, but the model shows clear favoritism toward Marquette (13.3 percent) and Duke (11.5 percent) of those three. After Kentucky (8.3 percent), the rest of the field goes in order of odds, indicating the model sees little room for sleepers in this region.

UPSET PICKS: 10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds

West Region odds, best bets

North Carolina is the only No. 1 seed that's not favored in its region. That's because Arizona, at +260, comes in just ahead of the Tar Heels at +300. 

Easily the most interesting sleeper on the board is New Mexico at +2500. How often does an 11 seed rank as high as seventh in overall odds? Even Michigan State, sixth at +2200, is a possibility in a region that appears wide open.

The model also has Arizona (13.8 percent) edging North Carolina (8.2 percent), but then has Alabama (6.8 percent) coming up third. Though it likes New Mexico early, it's bearish on the Lobos' chances of reaching the Final Four (0.8 percent). Instead, it likes Michigan State (2 percent) as the best value bet.