Long before college basketball – and, more to the point, those choosing and ordering the teams for March Madness – volunteered to envelop itself in the analytics revolution, there was a three-question test that essentially ruled the selection process:
1. Who’d you play?
2. Where’d you play?
3. How’d you do?
I believe it was former Princeton AD Gary Walters, then the chair of the NCAA men’s basketball committee, who taught us this directive during one of the mock selection exercises the organization used to conduct to help those of us who cover the sport to better understand the process and to communicate what we learned to those who follow college hoops.
It still seems a prudent basis on which to judge teams. Of course, establishing the value of the “who” requires some device, and this is where such analytical tools as the NET or the KenPom ratings (which employ margin of victory) and Strength of Record or the KPI (which do not) become useful.
Should a team’s accomplishment, though, be based merely on one’s own rating?
Of course we’re talking about Auburn here.
Auburn has managed to play 18 games of a 31-game regular season without defeating anyone ranked higher than 38th by KenPom, or 39th by the NET. Its most impressive victory away from home – and, honestly, no one is that impressed – was recorded against No. 79 Saint Bonaventure in Brooklyn. The Tigers’ only game to date against a top-20 KenPom team was the opener against No. 15 Baylor. And they lost. They also fell to No. 80 Appalachian State.
Auburn has been on a rampage, though, against the line of mediocrities occupying the opposite bench over the past two months. Its 11-game winning streak is the third-longest in the sport, and the margins are outrageous: an average of 22 points during the streak, 20 points against seven high majors in that stretch.
This has led Auburn to climb to No. 5 at KenPom, No. 6 in the NET, No. 13 in the AP poll. They cracked DeCourcy’s Dozen at No. 11 last week, and I’ll acknowledge I don’t know what to do with them. You can’t keep crushing people like this without being some kind of good. But isn’t the idea to beat the best teams?
It is here.
That’s why the No. 1 ranking isn’t changing like the weather.
1. Purdue (17-2)
KenPom rank: 2
NET rank: 2
Next up: Michigan, Jan. 23
Overview: It was a nice week for Purdue to address two of its recent issues: beating Indiana in any venue (the Hoosiers swept the season series a year ago) and winning on the road against an opponent with so much more to gain (the Boilers handled a developing Iowa team in fairly easy fashion). Until visiting Wisconsin Feb. 4, a lot of what Purdue will be working on is its own areas of development.
2. Connecticut (17-2)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 8
Next up: Xavier, Jan. 28
Overview: The Huskies welcomed star center Donovan Clingan back to the rotation. Was he even missed? Of course. Even though they won all five games in his absence, every minute he was unavailable to play was one fewer minute of this team polishing its game for March. But the time he missed did provide the opportunity for backup Samson Johnson to build his confidence and display what he could do. Johnson is astonishingly dynamic for his size, and UConn now is aware he can be trusted to defend at a high level and to finish plays at an impressive rate. He was 19-of-25 from the field as a starter.
3. North Carolina (15-3)
KenPom rank: 7
NET rank: 7
Next up: Wake Forest, Jan. 22
Overview: The Tar Heels have won six consecutive ACC games by double-digit margins, and four of those were on the road. Look, this is a terrific team, but no one can even make it hard? Those of us in the media frequently take criticism from fans of teams in the league for creating a narrative about a “weak ACC.” Isn’t the action taking care of that?
4. Tennessee (14-4)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 4
Next up: at Vanderbilt, Jan. 27
Overview: The Vols get a week off to prepare for their long trip and massive confrontation with in-state rival Vanderbilt – OK, just kidding. Yes, they won’t play until then. But Vandy is only a few hours up I-40, is 5-13 now, oh-for-the-SEC and has not defeated a major opponent this season. Yes, my wonderful editor is a Vandy grad. Do you think he’ll be OK with me pointing out all of this?
5. Kentucky (14-3)
KenPom rank: 18
NET rank: 16
Next up: at South Carolina, Jan. 23
Overview: Kentucky got bigger and better when freshman big man Zvonimir Ivisic – now that he’s playing, we can’t get away with simply calling him Big Z – was cleared by the NCAA to join the Wildcats. He is 7-2, 234 pounds and 20 years old, and UK now has three legit 7-footers who are active and mobile enough to fit into the team’s rim-running style. He debuted with three made 3-pointers and 13 points in 16 minutes. In terms of depth, Calipari is inching toward the problem he had in 2015, when he was so loaded with capable players he essentially played them in two platoons. This isn’t that; the talent is not at that level. The Cats are very good, though, and they’ll become great if they can conjure a way to be more impactful on defense.
The NBA prospect that everyone is talking about this morning - Zvonimir Ivisic.
— Adam Finkelstein (@AdamFinkelstein) January 21, 2024
Kentucky’s 7-2 Croatian“Big Z” had 13pts (5-7 FG, 3-4 3pt) 5reb, 3blk, 2stl, & 2ast in 16min in his debut.
(And the crowd reaction & commentary added to the entertainment value) pic.twitter.com/flT40wpfM1
6. Kansas (15-3)
KenPom rank: 18
NET rank: 14
Next up: Cincinnati, Jan. 22
Overview: It’s as if when the Jayhawks lose, they want to make it really count. UCF and West Virginia are both outside the top 70 teams in the KenPom ratings. There are several other teams in DeCourcy’s Dozen who have inexplicable losses, but even Arizona’s Pac-12 road losses to Stanford (No. 90) and Washington State (No. 57) aren’t as indecorous. Just when it seemed as though Australian Johnny Furphy would solve the problem of who fits with KU’s core four – 14 points in 32 minutes on average the past two games – the Jayhawks found another way to lose Saturday to the Mountaineers.
7. Arizona (14-4)
KenPom rank: 3
NET rank: 3
Next up: at Oregon State, Jan. 25
Overview: After what the Wildcats put on tape Saturday against UCLA, do you think anyone’s going to fear being placed in their NCAA Tournament region? Whether they end up as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, they’re almost certainly going to be bracketed in the West. And the team that’s sent to join them will likely be the least of the 1s or 2s, because it’ll be a team that hasn’t earned geographic preference. For the other teams that are sent to the region, there should be few complaints.
8. Houston (16-2)
KenPom rank: 1
NET rank: 1
Next up: at BYU, Jan. 23
Overview: Why is the team that is No. 1 on the two most significant predictive metrics all the way down here? It’s rather simple: The Cougars played three solid but not elite teams away from home in non-conference games and won them all. Nice, but they faced no one at the elite level. And then they got into conference play and failed their first two significant road tests. They can make up for a bit at BYU, but Feb. 3 at Kansas will be the big one. It’s an enormous opportunity for the Cougars in their first year in the Big 12.
9. Wisconsin (14-4)
KenPom rank: 11
NET rank: 13
Next up: at Minnesota, Jan. 23
Overview: Although Purdue is at the top of this chart and rampaging toward a No. 1 NCAA seed, it’s actually the Badgers who are top of the table in the Big Ten Conference. (That’s how we would say it if were in England, and if this were soccer. But we’re not, so you’ll never hear that from me again, promise. We call it “standings”, no matter the sport).
10. Marquette (13-5)
KenPom rank: 17
NET rank: 17
Next up: at DePaul, Jan. 24
Overview: The Golden Eagles are battling Kansas to compile the wildest of all 2024 resumes. They have competition for the honor, obviously, but it’s hard to explain how the team that could win at Illinois and St. John’s could not beat Butler on its home floor or even a full-strength Providence would handle them by 15. Five of the next seven are on the road, although Marquette have much more to worry about if they become the first Big East team this season to fall to the Blue Demons.
11. Auburn (16-2)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 3
Next up: at Alabama, Jan. 24
Overview: The Crimson Tide are not an elite team, but they have the incentive of a rival and the occasion of playing this game at home. If the Tigers can overcome the opponent and the circumstance, we’ll have to accord them more respect in next week’s edition.
12. Dayton (15-2)
KenPom rank: 25
NET rank: 15
Next up: at Oregon State, Jan. 25
Overview: That UD’s 12-game winning streak stands at the second-longest in Division I doesn’t hurt, but the Flyers land here mostly because someone needs to. It’s not DeCourcy’s Eleven. That would be a bad sequel to a very good George Clooney movie. Dayton missed its two big opportunities – at Northwestern and on a neutral floor against the Houston Cougars – but they do own wins against St. John’s and Cincinnati. They’ll likely need to keep rolling against the Atlantic 10 to continue hanging in this neighborhood.
