In the first Elite 8 matchup on Sunday, No. 6 seed Creighton will take on No. 5 seed San Diego State at 2:20 p.m. EY in Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center (CBS).
The Blue Jays defeated the No. 15 seed Princeton Tigers 86-75 in the Sweet 16 on Friday night to punch their ticket to the Elite 8 for the first time in school history. Creighton had balanced scoring throughout their starting lineup, as four players recorded 10 or more points. Ryan Kalkbrenner led the Blue Jays with 22 points and five rebounds. Meanwhile, Baylor Scheierman was locked in from the three-point line as he scored 21 points on 5-of-7 shooting from beyond the arc. Trey Alexander also shot the ball well, scoring 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting from the field and 3-of-7 from three-point range. The Blue Jays will need those two players, in particular, to continue to shoot the ball well in the Elite 8 against an excellent San Diego State defense.
As for the Aztecs, they took down the No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide 71-64 on Friday night. San Diego St. played tremendous defense as they held Alabama to 32.4 percent shooting from the field and 11.1 percent from the three-point line (3-27). The Aztecs also did a great job of contesting shots at the rim, recording nine blocks in the Sweet 16 win. San Diego State did not get a lot of scoring from their starting lineup outside of Darrion Trammell, who scored a game-high 21 points (9-16 FG, 3-5 3pt) and dished out five assists. Anytime they needed a big shot, Trammell was there, which helped as leading scorer Matt Bradley struggled with six points (2-9 FG, 0-2 3pt) and a rebound. If the Aztecs want to get to their first Final Four in school history, they will need a bounce-back performance from Bradley.
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Here's everything to know about betting on Creighton vs. San Diego State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for the Elite 8 matchup.
Creighton vs. San Diego State odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Blue Jays are 1.5-point favorites over the Aztecs heading into Sunday's Elite 8 matchup. Creighton is receiving 61 percent of the bets (58 percent of the handle) on the spread, but San Diego State is getting 62 percent of the bets (49 percent of the handle) on the money line. The point total is set at 133.5.
- Spread: Creighton -1.5 (-110); San Diego State +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 133.5 (-110); UNDER 133.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Creighton -125; San Diego State +105
Three betting trends to watch
— The Aztecs are 10-7-2 against the spread this season with equal rest and 2-0 ATS with one day off.
— The Blue Jays are 7-7 ATS with equal rest this season and 1-1 ATS with one day off.
— Creighton is 17-14 ATS as a favorite (54.8 cover rate) this season, while San Diego State is 2-2 ATS as an underdog.
San Diego State key players
As previously mentioned, the Aztecs got a tremendous performance from senior guard Darrion Trammell, who had 21 points, five rebounds, and two assists against 'Bama. It was Trammell's first 20-point game since New Year's Eve against UNLV, where he had 21 points, six rebounds, and five rebounds. However, for San Diego State to get the Final Four, they need their All-Mountain West first-team guard Matt Bradley to have a great game on Sunday. Heading into the Sweet 16, Bradley was producing 13.5 points, five rebounds, and three assists per game. He only scored six points on Friday night, which will not do it against a Creighton backcourt that can fill it up in a blink of an eye. Also, watch out for Jaedon LeDee, who played well off the bench, recording 12 points and six rebounds. He will play a key role in slowing down Kalkbrenner inside the paint.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Creighton key players
The Blue Jays have five players scoring in double figures, led by Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is averaging 15.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game. The junior center is averaging 21 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in the NCAA tournament. Along with Kalkbrenner, San Diego State will have its hands full, with Trey Alexander (13.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 2.6 APG), Baylor Scheierman (12.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG), Ryan Nembhard (12.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, and 4.0 RPG), and Arthur Kaluma (11.8 PPG and 6.0 RPG).
Best individual matchup: Ryan Kalkbrenner vs. Jaedon Lee/Nathan Mensah
The Aztecs will need Lee and Mensah at their absolute best to slow down Kalkbrenner. The All-Big East first-team center and Big Defensive Player of the Year was able to get involved early and often in their Sweet 16 win over Princeton, which helped the Blue Jays' offense get going from beyond the arc. Lee has the size and frame to battle inside the paint with Kalkbrenner, but the Aztecs likely want Lee to be one of their top scorers off the bench. Therefore, that leaves the 6'10 Mensah to be that defensive presence in the frontcourt. Mensah did a great job against Alabama on Friday night, recording eight rebounds and five blocks. This should be a great battle between two Defensive Players of the Year who will not back down from any challenge.
Creighton vs. San Diego State stat to know
The Blue Jays enter Sunday's game with a high-scoring offense, averaging 77 points per game this season (64th in the NCAA). They also own 110 ORtg (52nd in the NCAA) and shoot 47 percent from the field (41st in the country). However, they are going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country (63.1 points per game allowed), which put on a clinic against one of the best teams in the nation this season in the Sweet 16. The Blue Jays can shoot the ball well from three-point land (35.8 percent), but the Aztecs defend it at an exceptional rate -- 28.2 percent (third in the NCAA).
Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction
This a rematch from last year's NCAA tournament, as the Blue Jays defeated the Aztecs 72-69 in overtime in the first round. Sunday's game should be another close matchup that comes down to the wire. However, we like the Aztecs to win. They have the guard play to match Creighton and a stifling defense that will make an explosive offense look like a dud. The Aztecs get a bounce-back performance from Bradley and punch their ticket to the Final Four.
Prediction: San Diego State 70, Creighton 66. San Diego State (+1.5) covers the spread, with the game going OVER the total (133.5).
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