To wrap up semifinal Saturday, the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies (-5.5) look to return to the National Championship for the first time since 2014, but it won't come easy against the relentless fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes, who look for their first National Championship appearance in school history (8:49 p.m. ET, CBS).
Connecticut's had a relatively stress-free NCAA Tournament run to this point, boasting a 22.5-point average margin of victory through four games. The Huskies most recently thrashed third-seeded Gonzaga 82-54 in the West Regional final, scoring 1.14 points per possession on 41.7 percent shooting while holding the nation's most efficient offense to just 0.75 points per possession on 33.3-percent shooting.
The Huskies' stability on both ends of the floor warrants them as the team to beat, entering with -125 odds to win their fifth National Championship in school history. However, the Hurricanes figure to give the Huskies their toughest test through five games, as Miami's fifth-rated offense per KenPom (119.6 points scored per 100 possessions) might be able to score at an efficient enough clip to keep its title hopes alive.
Despite trailing by 13 points in the second half against Texas in the Elite Eight, Miami dominated down the stretch, outscoring the Longhorns 30-14 in the final 10 minutes of play by consistently attacking the basket. Miami earned a spot in the Elite Eight after sinking 11-of-25 three-point attempts to upset top-seeded Houston on Friday night, but it only connected on two-of-eight threes on Sunday. Miami's ability to get to the basket resulted in 32 free throw attempts and 28 makes to pull out an 88-81 victory.
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Here's everything to know about betting on Connecticut vs. Miami in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Final Four matchup.
Connecticut vs. Miami odds
- Spread: Connecticut -5.5 (-110); Miami +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 149.5 (-105); UNDER 149.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -250; Miami +200
Per BetMGM, Connecticut currently sits as a 5.5-point favorite over Miami in this neutral-site clash. The Huskies' moneyline price of -250 gives them an implied win probability of 71.43 percent, while Miami's moneyline price of +200 gives it a 33.33-percent chance to advance to the title game. The total's currently set at 149.5 points, which makes sense given both offenses want to push the pace and thrive in transition.
Three betting trends to watch
— Connecticut and Miami are among two of the most profitable ATS teams in college basketball this season, with the Huskies sporting a 25-11-1 ATS record (69.4-percent cover rate) while the Hurricanes have covered the spread in 22 of their 36 games (61.1-percent cover rate).
— Spread bettors love seeing Miami play on a neutral court this season, as the Hurricanes have covered in eight of nine neutral-site matchups this season (88.9-percent cover rate).
— Both schools have also gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament so far. Which school will keep its perfect ATS record intact?
Connecticut key players
In the Huskies Elite Eight beatdown of the Bulldogs, sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins scored a game-high 20 points on six-of-15 shooting from the field. He didn't make a single two-point shot, but he canned six of his 10 three-point shots along with two-of-three free throws to help Connecticut return to the Final Four. UConn finds creative ways to get Hawkins just enough space to get his shot off, and his ability to heat up in a hurry could be the difference on Saturday night.
Alongside Hawkins, 6-6 junior swingman Andre Jackson's skillset is integral to the Huskies' chances of winning a National Title, as he's coming off an efficient showing in the Elite Eight where he posted a 148 offensive rating. Starting center Adama Sanogo (17.1 ppg, 60.2 FG%) is the team's most utilized offensive weapon, taking a shot on 29.7 percent of possessions when on the floor. Backup center Donovan Clingan's another heavily utilized player when on the floor (22.6% of shots), and his ability to relieve Sanogo could be what leads the Huskies to another National Championship game.
Miami key players
Without an all-time performance from wing Jordan Miller (27 points, 7-7 FG, 13-13 FT), Miami's likely flying back to Coral Gables without a Midwest Regional trophy. Miller's ability to attack the paint and get consistent high-percentage looks was the difference in their Elite Eight win, and if the Hurricanes have any shot of taking down the Huskies, it will likely be a result of another big-time performance from the 6-7 senior.
After a 26-point showing in Miami's upset of Houston, sophomore guard Nijel Pack wasn't as efficient from the field but still added 15 points on six-of-12 shooting against Texas. His ability to space the floor is integral against a well-rounded Connecticut defense, along with the pressure backcourt mate Isaiah Wong (16.2 ppg, 44.7 FG%) puts on opposing defenses. Starting center Norchad Omier will have his hands full matching up against Sanogo and Clingan, but we thought the same about his duels against Drake, Indiana, and Houston's frontcourts, and Omier did enough to help his team survive and advance.
Best individual matchup: Norchad Omier vs. Adama Sanogo
With both backcourts having the ability to neutralize themselves, this game could come down to whichever frontcourt dominates on the boards and converts their two-point attempts at a higher clip. Omier, the Arkansas State transfer, has been a revelation for the Canes this season but will be tested against an elite UConn frontcourt on Saturday night. On the defensive end of the court, Omier needs to be aware of Sanogo's ability to slip middle ball screens, which forces defenses to be sound in their rotations. Omier also needs to avoid foul trouble, as the Canes don't have much size beyond him. Look for the Huskies to attempt to get Sanogo going early and often to set up their inside-out game.
Connecticut vs. Miami stat to know
The battle in the paint will likely determine which school advances to the National Championship game. Miami's going to need its interior defense to show up on Saturday night, as Connecticut's offense has feasted from two-point territory this season, connecting on 53.6 percent of its shots (50th in D-1). The Hurricanes' interior defense has been susceptible this season, allowing opponents to connect on 51.6 percent of their two-point shots (246th in D-1).
Connecticut vs. Miami prediction
While Miami has enough players capable of creating their shot off the bounce, we're worried about their ability to hang with the Huskies on the boards. Connecticut also does such a sound job of running its offensive sets in the half court and is just as dynamic in transition. The Huskies' ability to defend without fouling while having their way against an exploitable Hurricane interior defense leads to Danny Hurley's crew returning to the game's biggest stage.
Prediction: Connecticut 77, Miami 70. Connecticut (-5.5) covers the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (149.5).
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