Saturday marks the penultimate day of the college basketball regular season, and hoops fanatics are treated to a jam-packed slate headlined by three marquee matchups: UCLA-Arizona, Texas-Kansas, and North Carolina-Duke. North Carolina's the lone bubble team of those six schools and the team most desperate for a win. The rest of the schools are NCAA Tournament locks, but adding another quality win to your resume never hurts.
Will UCLA secure their 18th conference win to close out Pac-12 play? How will Kansas fare in its first-ever trip to the Moody Center? Can the Tar Heels secure their second Quad 1 victory of the season? Sporting News looks at the odds for all three marquee games while providing a best bet for each matchup.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 Arizona odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: UCLA -5.5 (-106); Arizona +5.5 (-114)
- Over/Under: OVER 147.5 (-115); UNDER 147.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: UCLA -220; Arizona +180
No. 4 UCLA attempts to close out Pac-12 conference play with an 18-2 record, evening up the regular season series against No. 8 Arizona in the process. UCLA's currently riding the nation's eighth-longest winning streak (nine games) and has all the makings of returning to a Final Four for the second time in three seasons.
With UCLA's moneyline priced at -220 (implied probability 68.75 percent), chances are the Bruins take care of business at home and avoid the regular season sweep against the Wildcats, but covering the current 5.5-point spread is a different task. Arizona has yet to close as an underdog this season, as Saturday will be the first time this season they're in the underdog role.
In the Wildcats' 58-52 win over the Bruins on Jan. 21, Arizona held UCLA to just 0.79 points per possession on 36.2 percent shooting from two-point territory and 20 percent shooting from three. While UCLA still has one of the better offenses in college basketball (22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency), they're significantly better on the defensive end of the court (second in adjusted defensive efficiency).
An Arizona offense that sports KenPom's sixth most efficient offense (120.8 points scored per 100 possessions) should be able to hang around and stay within a couple of possessions. The Wildcats probably won't end up winning outright, but we have the take the 5.5-points with a team who has yet to be an underdog all season.
Best Bet: Arizona +5.5 (-114)
No. 9 Texas vs. No. 3 Kansas odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Texas -2.5 (-114); Kansas +2.5 (-106)
- Over/Under: OVER 148.5 (-114); UNDER 148.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Texas -146; Kansas +122
After winning the Big 12 regular season title outright, No. 3 Kansas heads to Austin to face No. 9 Texas at the Moody Center. Kansas finds itself as a two-point road underdog and is looking to hand Texas just their second loss at their new home, but notching a road win in Austin won't be easy despite the Longhorns amid a two-game losing streak.
Texas fought hard in their 88-80 road loss to Kansas on Feb. 6 despite trailing by as many as 14 points in the first half. The Longhorns match up fairly well with the Jayhawks and could hold their own on the defensive glass even though they enter Saturday's regular-season finale sporting the Big 12's ninth-best defensive rebounding rate (31.4 percent).
Kansas isn't overly big in the frontcourt and has struggled to grab offensive rebounds in conference play, ranking eighth in the conference in offensive rebound rate (27.7 percent). If the Jayhawks struggle to convert their initial shots, then generating consistent offense will be tougher to come by. We think the Longhorns' defense slows down the Jayhawks' go-to player Jalen Wilson, while their backcourt steps up on the offensive end, helping Texas secure a home win on senior day.
Best Bet: Texas -2.5 (-114)
North Carolina vs. Duke odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: North Carolina -2.5 (-110); Duke +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 143.5 (-110); UNDER 143.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina -138; Duke +115
North Carolina is starting to gain momentum heading into the postseason and has an opportunity to gain its second Quad 1 victory with a home win over their archrival. The Heels are currently priced as two-point home favorites over the Blue Devils and look to finish the regular season with a 13-2 record inside the Dean Dome.
Avoiding a regular season sweep against a well-rounded Duke bunch will take a collective effort, one North Carolina is capable of. In its first meeting against Duke, a 63-57 road loss, center Armando Bacot held his own against one of the most talented frontcourts in the nation, posting a double-double (14 points, 10 rebounds). Bacot will once again have his hands full trying to keep Duke center Dereck Lively off the glass, but he has a chance to neutralize him to the point where the game could be decided in the backcourt.
Guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis both finished with below-average offensive ratings in their first matchup against Duke, as the duo combined for just 23 points on 10-of-31 shooting from the field. With Love and Davis likely to command a high volume of shots once again, a better shooting output is a must if the Heels have any hope of taking down Duke. They'll also need to slow down Jeremy Roach, who added 20 points on eight-of-20 shooting from the field.
Like most Duke-North Carolina matchups, this one figures to come down to the final possessions, and we're thinking the Tar Heels are the beneficiaries of more 50-50 balls, resulting in North Carolina's second Quad 1 win of the season.
