Wednesday marks the start of the best month in college basketball, but for college hoops diehards, it's a bittersweet time knowing conference play is winding down at the high-major level. While the best basketball is still ahead of us, today's one of the last times teams can better their resumes before the start of the postseason.
Wednesday's slate is headlined by two Top 25 matchups, No. 20 Providence vs. No. 19 Xavier, and No. 22 TCU vs. No. 9 Texas, along with the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide playing its final home game against in-state rival Auburn. All six teams are all but locks for the NCAA Tournament, but it never hurts to add another quality win to help move up a seed line or two.
Sporting News looks at the odds for all three games while providing a best bet for each matchup.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
No. 20 Providence vs. No. 19 Xavier odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Providence -3.5 (-110); Xavier +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 155 (-110); UNDER 155 (-110)
- Moneyline: Providence -170; Xavier +143
Providence looks to avoid a regular season sweep against Xavier after the Friars fell to the Musketeers 85-83 in overtime on Feb. 1. In that game, Providence closed as +3.5 point underdogs and secured the road cover but are now in the favorite role back home. Despite trailing by 14 points in the first half (33-19 with 6:59 in 1H), Providence took a three-point lead with under five minutes to play but couldn't complete the comeback.
Providence went 1-1 last week, falling to Connecticut 87-69 in a game much closer than the final score indicated and later taking care of Georgetown with a 88-68 road win. Providence has yet to drop a home game this season and is two wins away from ending the regular season with an unblemished home record.
The Friars will be tested against a Musketeer offense ranking ninth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric, scoring 119.4 points per 100 possessions. Xavier scored 1.18 points per possession in its first meeting against Providence while connecting on 52 percent of their two-point attempts (24-46). However, if the Friars can shore up their interior defense, they should have the upper hand as they boast the best perimeter defense in the Big East, holding opponents to 29.6 percent shooting from deep.
Xavier's defense hasn't been nearly as efficient as their offense, sporting the Big East's seventh-most-efficient defense (104.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). A Friars offense that enters Wednesday ranking 19th in offensive efficiency should be able to score around 80 points in what should be an uptempo game.
We'll lay the short number with Providence, thinking the Friars keep their perfect home record in tack with a confidence-boosting win over Xavier.
Best Bet: Providence -3.5 -110
No. 22 TCU vs. No. 9 Texas odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: TCU -2.5 (-110); Texas +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 150.5 (-110); UNDER 150.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: TCU -145; Texas +122
No. 9 Texas attempts to keep their Big 12 regular season championship hopes alive when they travel to face No. 22 TCU inside Schollmaier Arena on senior night. After jumping out to an early 18-4 first-half lead over Baylor in its most recent game, Texas fell into an 18-point second-half hole, eventually losing 81-72.
A Texas defense that's been one of the better units in the country allowed Baylor to connect on nine three-point attempts while making over 50 percent of their two-point shots. Baylor committed 21 turnovers but still managed to score 80-points, which isn't a great sign now that they face a TCU bunch who does a solid job of taking care of the basketball (17 percent turnover rate) and boasts the Big 12's best two-point scoring rate.
TCU's frontcourt will likely have an effective showing, as the Horned Frogs should also own the glass on both ends of the court. TCU hasn't been as dominant on the offensive glass as they were last season but still rebounds 32.5 percent of its missed shots (58th in D-1). Texas struggles on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to rebound 35.3 percent of their missed shots (285th in D-1). As long as Texas doesn't shoot at a high clip from three-point territory, TCU likely does enough to notch a home win and cover.
Best Bet: TCU -2.5 -110
No. 2 Alabama vs. Auburn odds, picks, best bet
- Spread: Alabama -10 (-110); Auburn +10 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 152 (-110); UNDER 152 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama -550; Auburn +400
No. 2 Alabama can clinch the SEC regular-season title with an outright win over Auburn and likely does so with the Crimson Tide pegged as 10-point favorites. Rather than look to bet the Crimson Tide on the spread, we'll focus our attention on the total.
When Alabama and Auburn back on Feb.11, the Crimson Tide secured a 77-69 road win in a game where they made 82 percent of their two-point attempts (23-28). While Auburn has a solid interior defense, Alabama did whatever it wanted inside, and we're expecting another efficient performance from the Crimson Tide's offense this go around.
It's unlikely the Crimson Tide will shoot 80-plus percent from two-point range in Wednesday's rematch. Still, we do expect Alabama to shoot much better from three-point territory than they did on Feb. 11. Alabama made just six-of-21 (28.6 percent) three-pointers against Auburn, which was below their season average in SEC play (35.7 percent). Now that they're back in their home gym expect the Crimson Tide to post a nearly 30-percent three-point shooting clip while employing a fast tempo.
While the Tigers don't play nearly as fast as the Crimson Tide, a game in which they are playing from behind will force them to push the pace on offense to stay within striking distance. Auburn isn't a great three-point shooting team, but it shot under 30 percent from three-point range (seven-of-24) in the first meeting against Alabama. Despite not shooting at an overly efficient clip, Auburn should hoist a high number of threes against an Alabama defense that entices opponents to shoot threes. One-third of the Crimson Tides' opponents' shots this season have been from three-point territory, the third-highest rate in the SEC.
Factor in a slightly better three-point shooting effort from Auburn, and we expect a high-scoring contest that lands OVER the total.
