With two weeks left in the college basketball regular season, time is ticking for schools to add quality, resume-boosting wins to better their seed lines come Selection Sunday. Tuesday's one of those times, though, as the slate's loaded with four Top 25 matchups headlined by Kansas State-Baylor, Texas A&M-Tennessee, Creighton-Marquette, and Texas-Iowa State.
Will Kansas State and Baylor play in another high-possession track meet? How will Texas A&M's offense fair against Tennessee's elite defense? Is Creighton all the way back? Are the Longhorns too heavy of favorites? We'll answer those questions and more as we break down all four Top 25 matchups with our best bets.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 14 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Baylor odds, best bet
- Spread: Kansas State +1.5 (-104); Baylor -1.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: OVER 148.5 (-110); UNDER 148.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas State +104; Baylor -125
Kansas State looks for a regular season sweep over Baylor after notching a 97-95 win over the Bears in Waco on Jan. 7. At the time of publishing, the Wildcats are pegged as short +1.5 point underdogs, so oddsmakers are expecting a one-possession, coin-flip type of game in Tuesday's rematch.
Both teams enter Tuesday night off polar opposite performances on Saturday, as Kansas State erased an eight-point halftime deficit en route to a 61-55 home win over Iowa State, while Baylor allowed Kansas to climb back from a 17-point hole in an 87-71 road loss.
With the current spread sitting near a pick 'em, we'll refrain from betting on a side and focus our attention on the total. Kansas State and Baylor combined to score 192 total points in their first matchup in a game that went to overtime and totaled 79 possessions. Both offenses were also uber-efficient, scoring over 1.2 points per possession while combining for 19 made three-pointers.
Even though Baylor sports the weakest defense in the conference per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (109.9 points allowed per 100 possessions), we're expecting a lower-scoring, less efficient rematch. Therefore, we'd bet the UNDER 148.5 at its current price.
Best Bet: UNDER 148.5 -110 (playable at that number)
No. 22 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Tennessee odds, best bet
- Spread: Texas A&M -1.5 (-104); Tennessee +1.5 (-119)
- Over/Under: OVER 129.5 (-110); UNDER 129.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -118; Tennessee -102
No. 11 Tennessee hits the road for its second consecutive game, traveling to Reed Arena to take on the second-placed and newly ranked Texas A&M Aggies. These two schools met in last season's SEC Tournament Championship Game, when Buzz Williams' bunch was one win away from securing an automatic bid to the big dance, but was held to just 0.79 points per possession against the Volunteers' stout defense in a 65-50 loss.
We could see similar offensive output from the Aggies, as Tennessee's defense enters Tuesday night still atop KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, allowing just 86 points per 100 possessions. With Tennessee's offense having its fair share of struggles over the past month, we think an Aggies defense that ranks third in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency can limit the 'Vols effectiveness on offense .
The Aggies will have a tough time on the glass against a Volunteer bunch holding opponents to only a 26.3 percent offensive rebound rate (second in SEC), so we're not sure they're able to win outright, but do think offense will be hard to come by on both ends of the court. Give us the UNDER 129.5 at -110.
Best Bet: UNDER 129.5 -110 (playable to 128 at -120 odds)
No. 19 Creighton vs. No. 10 Marquette odds, best bet
- Spread: Creighton -5.5 (-110); Marquette +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 148.5 (-110); UNDER 148.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Creighton -235; Marquette +190
Since losing six straight games from Nov. 23-Dec. 16., Creighton's been on a tear, winning 12 of its past 15 Big East games. The Blue Jays are hitting their stride at the right time and now face a top-ten foe in Marquette at the CenturyLink Center as 5.5-point favorites.
Creighton's final loss in their late November-early December losing streak came against the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, falling 69-58. In the loss, preseason All-Big East center Ryan Kalkbrenner missed the game with an illness, and without their best interior defender, allowed Marquette to connect on 54 percent of their two-point shots (21-of-39).
In Big East conference play, the Bluejays boast the league's best interior defense, holding opponents to 43.7 percent shooting from the two-point territory. Kalkbrenner's return coupled with guards Ryan Nembhard, Trey Alexander, and Baylor Scheierman playing clean basketball results in another Quadrant 1 win for Creighton. The spread has baked in Creighton's hot play and Kalkbrenner's return, so we wouldn't lay more than -5.5.
Best Bet: Creighton -5.5 -110 (playable at that number)
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 23 Iowa State odds, best bet
- Spread: Texas -6.5 (-118); Iowa State +6.5 (-104)
- Over/Under: OVER 136.5 (-106); UNDER 136.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Texas -310; Iowa State +245
Texas eked out a narrow 85-83 overtime home win over Oklahoma after dropping their early-week game to Texas Tech, and are now priced as 7.5-point home favorites over an Iowa State bunch they lost by 11 points to earlier this season. Is the spread too high? It might be, but we'd rather be on the side of the Longhorns rather than take the points with the 'Clones.
For starters, Texas is a different beast inside the first-year Moody Center, losing just one home game this season in 15 tries. On the other hand, Iowa State's suffered seven of its nine losses on the road, most recently falling to the aforementioned Wildcats in on Saturday. Iowa State prides itself on the defensive end of the court, entering Saturday boasting a Big 12-best 22 percent turnover rate. Turning defense into offense helps makes life easier for an offense that ranks 88th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but Texas sports the second-lowest offensive turnover rate in the Big 12 (17 percent).
If Texas plays clean basketball, it should even up the season series with Iowa State. We also think a Longhorns' offense scoring 107.3 points per possession in Big 12 play (second in Big 12) overpowers the Cyclones' defense, resulting in a comfortable home win for the 'Horns.
