While Saturday marks the second-to-last weekend in conference play at the high-major level, college hoops bettors get treated to a jam-packed slate headlined by three AP top-25 matchups. Three home favorites--Baylor, Purdue, and Gonzaga--look to avenge road losses to Texas, Indiana, and Saint Mary's in games with high importance relative to their respective conference regular season races.
We'll break down these three marquee Saturday games and provide our best bet for each matchup.
Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 8 Texas odds, best bet
- Spread: Baylor -3 (-110); Texas +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 153 (-110); UNDER 153 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor -159; Texas +130
Baylor enters Saturday's showdown with Texas amid a two-game losing streak, most recently falling to Kansas State 75-65 on Tuesday. Baylor also lost their first meeting against Texas in Austin, suffering a 76-71 loss but is currently priced as three-point home favorites.
Even though the Bears sport the weakest defense in the Big 12 per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (110.2 points allowed per 100 possessions), they match up well against the Longhorns and should be able to pull off the home win. Simply put, Baylor's interior defense has been horrid, allowing conference opponents to connect on 57.4 percent of their two-point attempts (last in Big 12).
Texas doesn't have the biggest frontcourt, as forward Dylan Disu isn't much of a back-to-the-basket threat, which should play into the Bears' hands. Texas also struggles to rebound their misses, sporting just a 28 percent offensive rebound rate (eighth in Big 12). Baylor's ability to negate the Longhorns on the glass while holding their own on the interior should translate to a home win and cover for the Bears.
Best Bet: Baylor -3 -110
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 17 Indiana odds, best bet
- Spread: Purdue -7.5 (-104); Indiana +1.5 (-119)
- Over/Under: OVER 140.5 (-110); UNDER 140.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue -345; Indiana +270
With Northwestern falling to Illinois on Thursday night, Purdue can clinch a share of the Big 10 regular season title with a win over Indiana on Saturday night. The Boilermakers suffered one of their four conference losses in a 79-74 loss to Indiana in Bloomington on Feb. 4 and haven't been swept by the Hoosiers since 2013.
In the loss, Indiana jumped out to an early 50-35 halftime lead but was outscored 39-29 in the final 20 minutes. Runaway National Player of the Year favorite, Zach Edey, gave his best effort in the loss, dropping 33 points and grabbing 18 rebounds on 15-of-19 shooting from the field. Edey's got the chance to replicate that output against a Hoosiers' defense that has size but is no match for the 7-4 junior.
Indiana's offense will have a tough time scoring consistently this go around against a Boilermaker defense that ranks second in the Big 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). Purdue's done a solid job of running opponents off the three-point line, holding Big 10 foes to 32.7 percent shooting (fourth in Big 10).
Purdue's also an elite rebounding team, leading the Big 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. The Boilermakers' ability to dominate on the boards coupled with yet another big game from Edey likely results in Purdue notching a comfortable victory.
Best Bet: Purdue -7.5 -110
No. 12 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Saint Mary's odds, best bet
- Spread: Gonzaga -4 (-110); Saint Mary's +4 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 143 (-110); UNDER 143 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga -186; Saint Mary's +150
While the Big 12 and Big 10 still have another week left of conference play, the WCC wraps up conference play on Saturday night. Gonzaga's looking to clinch a share of the WCC with a win over Saint Mary's and the betting markets expecting them to do just that, listing the Bulldogs as four-point home favorites.
Gonzaga could have won the WCC outright had it not lost to Saint Mary's in Moraga on Feb. 4. The Zags were in control throughout and held an eight-point lead with 7:44 in the second half but allowed the Gaels to force overtime, ultimately losing 78-70.
As long as the Bulldogs control the pace and make it an uptempo game, they should be able to notch a multi-possession home win to clinch a share of the WCC regular season title. Saint Mary's averages 20.3 seconds per offensive possession (358th in D-1) and wants to limit the number of possessions, but Gonzaga wants to play the exact opposite, averaging 15.9 seconds per offensive possession (27th in D-1).
While the Gaels boast the nation's sixth-most efficient defense, they'll be tasked with limiting a Gonzaga defense ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.3 points per 100 possessions). Senior forward Drew Timme's ability to dominate the paint coupled with solid shooting nights from Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton help the Bulldogs even up the regular season series with the Gaels.
