As the calendar flips to February, the college basketball regular season is nearing its conclusion, and every game from here out takes on a bit more significance. On Saturday night, two of the game's most storied programs go head-to-head for the first time this season, as the Duke Blue Devils (-3) host the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Despite both programs in the running for at-large bids come Selection Sunday, it's been a disappointing first few months for two of the game's true blue bloods. North Carolina entered the season ranked as the preseason No.1 following last season's National Championship appearance, but this version of the Heels looks eerily similar to the team that entered last season's NCAA Tournament as a team that many thought wouldn't make it past the first weekend.
The Heels are fresh off a last-second, 65-64 home loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, failing to win outright as 8.5-point favorites. With the win, Pittsburgh notched a surprising regular-season sweep over North Carolina and handed the Heels their first home loss of the season.
Duke also entered the season with lofty exceptions despite losing legendary head coach Mike Krzyzewski to retirement. Even with a coaching change, first-year head coach John Scheyer's bunch was held to high exceptions with the No.1 overall recruiting class coming to Durham. The young Blue Devils (341st nationally in minutes continuity) have certainly had their fair share of freshmen-esque moments, but Scheyer's team is starting to play better as the season progresses. Duke enters Saturday night as winners in five of its past seven games, having just squeaked out a two-point home win over Wake Forest in its most recent contest.
Can the Blue Devils hold serve at home by avenging last season's Final Four loss to the Tar Heels? Below, we'll break down Saturday night's Tobacco Road rivalry game while providing our predictions and best bet.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Duke vs. North Carolina odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Duke -3 (-110); North Carolina +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 145
- Moneyline: Duke -150; North Carolina +130
Considering these two schools have played as close to even basketball as it gets throughout the years (Krzyzewski went 50-50 against North Carolina during his tenure), seeing Duke priced as a three point home favorite might be a bit surprising. However, the current spread is warranted. Duke's about a point better than North Carolina on a neutral floor, and after factoring in home court, a three-point spread is a solid projection.
We're still siding with the home team here, expecting the Blue Devils to hold their own on the glass while limiting North Carolina's effectiveness from two-point territory. Duke enters Saturday night leading the ACC in offensive rebound rate (34.8 percent) while limiting opponents to just 47.6-percent shooting from two-point range (third in ACC). North Carolina's been just as dominant on the defensive glass, holding conference opponents to a 19.4-percent offensive rebound rate (first in ACC), but it's yet to face a team as big as the Blue Devils.
Senior center Armando Bacot is going to have his hands full keeping the nation's second-tallest team off the offensive glass for 40 minutes. Duke's frontcourt consisting of highly touted freshman Dereck Lively (7-1), Kyle Filipowski (7-0), and Mark Mitchell (6-8) is the most complete unit Bacot's faced this season. Bacot could very well end up in foul trouble, but at the very least, he won't be the same force down low that he usually is.
North Carolina might have a small edge in the backcourt with veteran guards R.J. Davis and Caleb Love being able to score off the bounce, but Duke's ability to generate second-chance points should be enough to push them past the Tar Heels on Saturday night.
