To open up the prime-time slate on Thursday night, No. 9 seed Auburn will play No. 8 seed Iowa in the first round of the 2023 men's basketball tournament. The game is set to tip off at 6:50 p.m. ET from Legacy Arena at BJCC in Birmingham, Alabama (TNT).
The Tigers (20-12) took a step back this season after their incredible 2021-22 that saw them go 28-6 with Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler but lose in the second round of the NCAA tournament to Duke. Auburn did not have a long run in this year's SEC tournament, losing in the quarterfinals to Arkansas by three points. The Tigers have not played their best basketball down the stretch, losing seven out of his past 11 games. However, Bruce Pearl's crew played well earlier this season in non-conference play with a 10-2 record.
As for the Hawkeyes (19-13), they don't have the services of Keegan Murray anymore, but his twin brother Kris has been phenomenal this season, averaging 20.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Iowa lost in the first round last year to 12th-seeded Richmond, a fate they hope to avoid this time around. Iowa did not have a tough non-conference schedule, but they did pick up a win over Virginia in November but also lost to in-state Iowa State by 20 points in December. The Hawkeyes played well in the Big Ten this season, finishing seventh in one of the best conferences in college hoops. However, it doesn't matter if Iowa doesn't start having some NCAA tournament success.
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Auburn vs. Iowa odds
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
To no one's surprise, Auburn is only a one-point favorite in Thursday's game against Iowa. The point total is set at 152 points, which is likely helped by the fact that Iowa is ranked 22nd in the country in scoring (80.2 points per game)
- Spread: Auburn -1
- Over/under: 152
- Moneyline: Auburn -122, Iowa +101
Three betting trends to watch
— The Tigers are 12-13 against the spread this season as a favorite but 20-5 straight up on the moneyline.
— The Hawkeyes are 3-5 ATS as an underdog this season and 0-4 ATS on a neutral court.
— Auburn is 7-4 ATS after a loss this season, while Iowa is 7-5 ATS after a defeat.
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
Auburn key players
For the Tigers to advance to the Round of 32 this weekend, they need a massive performance from sophomore forward Johni Broome. Broome is one of four Auburn players scoring in double figures, averaging 14 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. The 6-10 forward is also a force on the defensive end, recording 2.3 blocks per game (third in the SEC and 12th in the country). Along with Broome, the Hawkeyes will have to worry about Wendell Green Jr., Jaylin Williams, and Allen Flanigan. Green Jr. was named to the All-SEC second team with Broome after producing 13.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.3 rebounds this season. Green might be small in stature (5-11) but is a tough guard who looks to make plays for others.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Iowa key players
The Hawkeyes will lean on Kris Murray, who is playing at the same level Keegan was last season for Iowa. Murray is averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game en route to being named to the All-Big-Ten first team. However, Murray doesn't do it all himself, as the Hawkeyes get contributions from Filip Rebraca, Tony Perkins, Patrick McCaffrey, and Payton Sandfort. Rebraca, Perkins, and McCaffrey were named honorable mention by the Big Ten, while Sandfort won Sixth Man of the Year. Sandfort is averaging 10.2 points and 4.2 rebounds in 20.6 minutes per game. He's also shooting 34.6 percent from three-point range and has scored at least 10 points in 10 games.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Johni Broome vs. Kris Murray
These two forwards might not match up often in Thursday night's game, but they will play a huge part in their respective teams' success. Broome has played well in his first season with the Tigers after spending his first two years in college at Morehead State. He can impact the game with his defense and can play with his back to the basketball on offense. As for Murray, he can score in bunches, producing 15 games with 20 or more points. He has the athleticism to run the floor, post up inside the arc, and knock down shots from the perimeter.
Auburn vs. Iowa stat to know
Iowa enters Thursday night's first-round matchup with one of the best-scoring offenses in the country (80.2 points per game). It also does a great job of spreading the ball around, leading to 16.6 assists per game (24th in the NCAA). Finally, the Hawkeyes are a better team at the free-throw line (73.9 percent) compared to Auburn (70.2 percent), which could play a part late in the second half. However, the Tigers have the better scoring defense (67.1 points per game), which they need to slow down Murray and Co.
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Auburn vs. Iowa prediction
We don't envision a blowout on either side, as Thursday's game will come down to the final five minutes in the second half. Auburn knows how to play in close games, but it hasn't been able to capture the win. Meanwhile, Iowa is a good regular-season team but can't get its act together in the NCAA tournament. However, we like the Hawkeyes to come away with a win, as they are more balanced offensively and have a dynamic scorer in Murray.
Prediction: Iowa 80, Auburn 77. Iowa (+1) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (152)
See what BetQL is projecting for Iowa vs. Auburn, along with sharp picks, value bets, and more for every March Madness game!
