Eighth-seeded Arkansas (-2.5) faces off against ninth-seeded Illinois on Thursday afternoon (4:30 p.m. ET, TBS) in what could be one of the more competitive first-round matchups of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Razorbacks entered the season ranked 10th in the preseason AP Poll, but two crucial early-season injuries to guard Nick Smith Jr. (knee) and wing Trevon Brazile (torn ACL) quickly threw a wrench into the 'Hogs hopes for a dominant 22-23 campaign.
Illinois also entered the season with a fair amount of hype, sitting second in the preseason Big Ten media poll behind Indiana. The Fighting Illini started the season strong, securing neutral site non-conference victories over No. 2 seeds UCLA and Texas, but they haven't quite been able to maintain their consistent play. Illinois limps into the NCAA Tournament, losing three of its past four games, with its lone win coming in double overtime against Michigan.
Which school will be able to grind out a win to keep its season alive? Here's everything to know about betting on Arkansas vs. Illinois in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this first-round game.
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Arkansas vs. Illinois odds
Per Sports Interaction, Arkansas currently sits as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 143.5 points. The Razorbacks have been slightly bet up after opening as 1.5-point favorites despite guard Anthony Black currently in a walking boot after landing on a Texas A&M player during Friday's quarterfinal loss in the SEC Tournament. Black's likely to suit up and play his usual minutes, but being less than 100 percent certainly hinders his playmaking abilities.
- Spread: Arkansas -2.5 (-110); Illinois +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 143.5 (-110); UNDER 143.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas -144; Illinois +120
Three betting trends to watch
— Arkansas was a well-respected team in the betting market throughout the season, closing as favorites in 23 of their 32 games. Albeit a tiny margin, the Hogs were a profitable team ATS as favorites, posting a 12-10-1 ATS mark (54.5 percent cover rate).
— Illinois was an even more profitable ATS team this season, sporting a 17-14-1 ATS record (54.8 percent cover rate). However, the Fighting Illini have gone just 1-5 ATS in their past six games, with their lone cover coming in a 76-71 road loss to Purdue (+7).
— As an underdog, Illinois covered five of six games, and in neutral-site action, Arkansas covered five of seven games. Which trend holds up on Thursday?
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING:
Odds | Favorites & Sleepers | Props | Round 1 Best Bets
Arkansas key players
247 Sports' No. 1 player in the class of 2022, Nick Smith, is the Razorbacks' most utilized offensive weapon, taking a shot on 34.1 percent of possessions when on the floor. Smith struggled to get going in Arkansas' most recent loss to Texas A&M, but he's posted an above-average offensive rating in four of his past six games. While Smith was on the sidelines nursing a knee injury, fellow five-star freshman Anthony Black had the ball in his hands quite a bit and should be able to penetrate the lane against Illinois' defense. Black's connected on 52.8 percent of his two-point shots on high-volume shooting (112-of-212) which is a respectable number for a freshman thrust into a big role. Alongside Smith and Black, Ricky Council IV loves to live in the midrange, while veteran guard Devo Davis can also steady the offense.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Illinois key players
The Fighting Illini are led by first-team All-Big Ten guard Terrence Shannon Jr., who leads Illinois in scoring 17.1 points per game. Shannon Jr.'s scored in double-figures in nine straight games, as he'll need to score at an efficient clip for the Fighting Illini to advance to the Round of 32. After Shannon, ex-Baylor Bear and 2021 National Champion, Matthew Mayer, is the team's second-most utilized option, taking a shot on 25.7 percent of possessions when on the floor. Front-court pieces Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins are uber-efficient from two-point territory, with Dainja connecting on 63.7 percent of his two-point looks and Hawkins sinking 59 percent of his two-pointers.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best individual matchup: Terrence Shannon Jr. vs. Devo Davis
Slowing down Shannon, Illinois' leading scorer, will be Davis' primary task on Thursday. Davis is routinely put on the opposing team's best scorers, and while he wasn't matched up against Shannon the last time these two met back in the Sweet 16 in '21 when Shannon was at Texas Tech, Davis held fellow guard Mac McClung to just nine points of two-of-six shooting in Arkansas' 68-66 victory. Shannon Jr. might be able to get his shot off from three-point territory, but Davis should hold his own on the interior to limit Shannon Jr.'s slashing ability.
Arkansas vs. Illinois stat to know
Illinois and Arkansas are two of the better teams in college basketball when it comes to rim protection. Along with allowing opponents to connect on fewer than 47 percent of their two-point attempts (D-1 average is 50.1 percent), Illinois ranks seventh in defensive block rate (14 percent) while Arkansas ranks 18th in defensive block rate (13.4 percent). Getting higher-percentage scoring looks in transition before both defenses get set might be the difference in this one.
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Arkansas vs. Illinois prediction
Both offenses likely have a hard time scoring consistently in the half-court, setting this game up for whichever team can be more effective in transition. Arkansas boasts one of the best transition defenses in college basketball per HoopMath, holding opponents to 48.2 effective field goal percentage in transition (26th in D-1). Illinois' transition defense isn't nearly as strong, ranking below average in effective field goal percentage (54.1 percent). The Razorbacks' ability to get higher-percentage looks more often results in Eric Musselman's crew advancing to the Round of 32 with a win and cover in a lower-scoring contest.
Prediction: Arkansas 73, Illinois 70. Arkansas (-2.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (143.5).
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