Following Dillon Brooks' comical post-game comments directed toward LeBron James after Game 2 of the Grizzlies-Lakers series, sports bettors might be even more inclined to bet on James' player props in Saturday's crucial Game 3 matchup.
Throughout his playing days, Brooks has never been one to back down from a challenge, instigating countless confrontations and scuffles. Although we respect his self-confidence, "poking the bear" after Game 2 might not be the wisest of mind games, especially since the Lakers sit as -210 favorites to take a 2-1 series lead and -165 favorites to advance to the Western Conference semifinals, per BetMGM.
While bettors will likely gravitate toward betting James' player prop OVERs for Game 3, has the prop market already accounted for this perceived motivational edge? Below, we'll look at some of James' player props ahead of Saturday night's Lakers-Grizzles matchup and provide our input into how bettors should attack these markets.
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LeBron James' best player prop bets for Lakers-Grizzlies Game 3
LeBron James' total points prop: Over/under 28.5 points
- OVER 28.5 points: (-110)
- UNDER 28.5 points: (-125)
James currently has the highest points prop out of any player in tomorrow night's matchup at 28.5 points. In Game 1, James' point prop closed at 28.5 points, and the OVER failed to cash after he finished with just 21 points on eight-of-16 shooting.
MORE: LeBron James vs. Dillon Brooks stats
In Game 2, his point total closed at 26.5. The OVER hit there thanks to a 28-point showing in the Lakers' 103-93 loss. We've seen a one-basket adjustment from Game 2 to 3, which isn't a monumental move by any means. The move from 26.5 back to 28.5 is a result of James' 28-point effort and has little to do with the perceived motivational edge.
Betting advice: Although James really has nothing to prove, we do think he could take Brooks into more isolation situations than normal, leading to his highest-volume game of the series. In that case, we'll bet on the four-time NBA champion to have his highest-scoring output of the series, eclipsing 29 points in the process.
LeBron James' total rebounds prop: Over/under 9.5 rebounds
- OVER 9.5 rebounds: (+105)
- UNDER 9.5 rebounds: (-140)
LBJ's rebounding prop currently sits at 9.5 with -140 juice to the UNDER even though James has recorded 11.5 rebounds per game this series.
Per NBA's tracking stats, James has more than enough of an opportunity to rack up 10-plus rebounds, seeing 14.5 defensive rebounding chances and 5.5 offensive rebounding chances per game this postseason.
In Games 1 and 2, James rebounding prop closed at 8.5 with -130 juice to the OVER, so a 9.5 total with -140 juice to the UNDER is a similar price.
Betting advice: Given he plays around 35 minutes in Game 3, James is in a good spot to corral 10-plus boards, so we'll take a chance on the forward posting a double-digit rebound output for a third straight game this series.
LeBron James' double-double prop: Will James record a double-double?
- Yes: (-115)
- No: (-120)
James has the second-best odds to record a double-double at -115 (implied probability: 53.49 percent) behind fellow Laker, Anthony Davis, who is priced with a -330 price tag (implied probability: 76.74 percent). LBJ's recorded a double-double in each game this series, and we're not expecting that trend to end on Saturday.
Betting advice: Considering we're betting James to score 29 plus points and secure 10-plus rebounds, we're clearly betting the 'Yes' on his double-double prop at -110. We're also expecting the Lakers to take a 2-1 series lead, and betting on these LeBron props is an alternate way of betting the Lakers to win rather than laying a -210 price tag to bet the Lakers moneyline.
The 40-piece: Lebron James to score 40-plus points (+600)
BetMGM's also released a signature bet on James to drop a 40-piece on Brooks and the Grizzlies, and based on how he sounded during Friday's media availability, we're rooting for the 38-year-old to drop 40-plus to humble Brooks.
After generally side stepping questions about Dillon Brooks’ comments, LeBron James cut off his media availability with a simple message. pic.twitter.com/yVcWNWf5g4
— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) April 21, 2023
While our rooting interests shouldn't factor into our betting approach, in this instance it does.
Therefore, we're making a modest bet on James to score 40-plus points at +600 odds (implied probability: 14.29 percent), thinking there's a greater than 14.29 percent chance the superstar goes off in this series-shifting Game 3.
