The Warriors' season went out with a whimper on Tuesday night after they fell to the Kings 118-94 in the 9/10 Western Conference Play-In Tournament matchup. It was a frustrating ending that encapsulated the up-and-down season that Golden State had experienced.
This offseason, the Warriors face several pivotal decisions that will determine the direction of the franchise going forward. They were far too expensive a team to repeat this type of outcome — Joe Lacob will have to fork over an estimated $177 million in tax payments, per Spotrac.
Lacob doesn't seem too keen on keeping that checkbook open.
“Plan 1A: We’d actually like to be out of the tax, and we think we have a way to do that. That kind of is the plan," Lacob told The Athletic's Tim Kawakami back in Februrary.
The team will have to make decisions on both Klay Thompson and Chris Paul, among others. Should they try to retain those pieces and go for another ring, or take a step back and rebuild on the fly?
Are Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green still good enough to win a championship?
If there is even a five percent chance that Lacob can squeeze another ring out of his dynastic trio, then the Warriors owe it to their loyal fans to pursue that goal. Unfortunately, the odds seem a lot lower than that.
All three have been on a steady decline over the past few seasons according to DARKO, which is one of the most well-respected all-in-one metrics within the NBA community.
Green is still an elite defender and shot a career-high 39.5 percent from 3 this season. He's also more combustible than ever and can't be counted on to stay on the floor. Curry looked like a top five player to start the year, but completely ran out of gas towards the end of the season. And Thompson was a shell of himself, getting benched for portions of the year. Going scoreless in the Play-In game was a rough ending to his year.
As good as these guys have been, they're clearly all on the downswing and declining quickly. They can still be a very good team, but the West is so good now that expecting them to make another Finals run is unrealistic.
Should the Warriors re-sign Klay Thompson?
Given that the Warriors want to cut payroll to get below the tax, can they still retain Thompson?
It is possible, but he's going to have to take a huge paycut from his $40.6 million salary.
MORE: Klay Thompson landing spots: Magic, Thunder headline best options
Thompson should draw interest from other teams at the $12.8 million mid-level exception. He might be able to get a little more from one of the six teams with cap space this summer. Nobody is giving him much more than $20 million annually.
Klay's new deal will immediately reduce the Warriors' payroll by at least $20 million. He did still shoot 39 percent from 3 and average 17.9 points per game. He will need to take a backseat to the younger players though at times and be willing to accept a lesser role. To his credit, he seemed to make peace with exactly that throughout this past season.
What do the Warriors do with Chris Paul?
Paul has a $30 million non-guaranteed contract for next season. The Warriors have a couple different things that they could do with his deal.
Paul isn't worth nearly that price tag any more, but the team could guarantee his deal and use it as a trade chip to bring in a better player. That would require going into the tax, so that option is probably off the table.
My simple salary model has Paul still worth about the mid-level exception. Bringing him back at around $13 million per season would put the Warriors a little over the precipice of the luxury tax again, but they could make moves to get under by trading away some salary like Gary Payton II.
More likely, the Warriors will make Paul an unrestricted free agent and try to bring him back at that much lower number or let him walk completely. He was a stabilizing force for the bench and rarely turned it over, but he disappeared in the Play-In game and looked every bit of his 38 years in that game.
Where do the Warriors go from here?
Given that the Warriors aren't good enough to compete for a title and their goals to get under the luxury tax, the writing is on the wall here.
They need to stay firm on a number for bringing back Thompson at under $20 million per year. If he gets an offer higher than that from another team (which is unlikely), then they have to be okay with letting him walk.
The same goes for Paul. Any offer above the mid-level exception means that he needs to be let go in order to try and get under the tax.
Looney is another dynasty holdover who has an $8 million non-guarantee for next season. Given his rapid decline, he could be brought back at a minimum salary.
The Warriors will also likely explore trades for Andrew Wiggins and his $26.3 million deal. That is the easiest way to get under the tax and solve their financial problems. Wiggins has been ineffective since the team's unlikely title run in 2022 and will probably need to have an asset attached to his deal in order to ship it out.
While it may seem doom and gloom, all is not lost for the Warriors. They have a bunch of promising young players that can lead the next era of Golden State basketball. Trayce-Jackson Davis and Brandin Podziemski were both pleasant rookie surprises that vastly overperformed their draft slot. Jonathan Kuminga should have been a candidate for Most Improved Player had he met the strange minimum games requirement. And Moses Moody also showed great growth, when he actually played.
The Warriors aren't going to win the championship next season. They can still be a good team that produces a lot of fun moments with Curry, Thompson, and Green while ushering in that new era. It's about as graceful an ending as any dynasty has had, and it's what Curry and company deserve.
