The seventh-seeded Lakers return home to Crypto.com Arena on Saturday night to play the sixth-seeded Warriors in Game 3 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Los Angeles stole homecourt in Game 1 earlier this week, but Golden State stormed back in Game 2 with a 127-100 win on Thursday night.
The Warriors got an excellent performance from veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who led both teams with a game-high 30 points on an efficient 11-of-18 shooting from the field and 8-of-11 from beyond the arc. It was a vintage shooting display from Thompson, who hasn't scored at least 30 points in a game since Mar. 31 against the Spurs (31). Thompson was one of six Golden State players in double-figures as Stephen Curry posted 20 points and 12 assists, while Draymond Green fell one assist short of a triple-double (11 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists). The Warriors made the necessary adjustments from their Game 1 defeat and now head into Game 3 with a chance to take a 2-1 series lead.
As for the Lakers, they could not replicate their offensive performance from Game 1, as the Warriors made sure Anthony Davis did not beat them. In Game 1, Davis dominated Golden State's frontcourt with 30 points and 23 rebounds. However, he was only held to 11 points and seven rebounds on Thursday night as Golden State tightened up on defense. With Davis struggling, LeBron James took over as the Lakers' best offensive player with 23 points (10-18 FG, 3-8 3pt), seven rebounds, and three assists. If Los Angeles wants to win on Saturday night, they will need James and Davis at their absolute best because the bench players are showing up.
Can the Warriors continue to remedy their road woes, or will the Lakers pick up their four-straight home win this postseason? Below, we'll break down Saturday night's Warriors-Lakers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Warriors vs. Lakers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Warriors +3.5 (-115); Lakers -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 227.5 (-110); UNDER 227.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors +125; Lakers -155
The Lakers are 3.5-point home favorites entering Saturday's game, despite losing by 27 points in Game 2. Los Angeles played well at Crypto.com Arena during the regular season (23-18) and has carried that momentum over in the postseason. In the first round against the Grizzlies, the Lakers protected their homecourt, winning by an average of 18.6 points per game (three games).
On the other end of the spectrum, it's no secret that the Warriors have struggled away from the Chase Center this season. Golden State had an 11-30 road record during the regular season and lost Games 1 and 2 against the Kings in the first round. However, the Warriors took care of business in Games 5 and 7.
For Golden State to win Game 3, they need to win the battle on the boards, stay hot from beyond the arc, and get transition points. In Game 2, the Warriors had a +10 advantage in fast break points and shot 50 percent from three-point range. That being said, we should expect the Lakers to make their adjustments on the perimeter, as they only allowed teams to shoot 34.4 percent from three-point range during the season.
If Los Angeles can limit Golden State's looks from three-point range, it will go a long way in determining what happens on Saturday night. Speaking of Los Angeles, they need both Davis and James to set the tone right away in the first quarter. Davis did an excellent job of getting whatever he wanted in Game 1, which opened up the rest of the floor for his teammates.
In Game 1, the Lakers had 54 points in the paint, while Golden State only scored 28 points. Los Angeles also got the free-throw line 29 times compared to Golden State's six times. Los Angeles knows they aren't a great three-point shooting team but have two players in Davis and James who can get into the paint at will.
The Lakers are 13-11-2 against the spread as home favorites this season (including the playoffs), while the Warriors are 6-15 ATS as a road underdog. Based on those two stats, the best bet is Lakers -3.5, but we will take the Warriors and the points. Golden State has shot 44.8 percent from beyond the arc through the first two games of this series. We see don't see Golden State's' three-point shooting falling off as they see a prime chance to go up 2-1.
Prediction: Warriors 115, Lakers 106. The Warriors (+3.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (227.5)
Best player prop bet for Warriors vs. Lakers: LeBron James OVER 9.5 rebounds (-115)
James hasn't shot the best from the perimeter throughout the NBA playoffs, but he's doing a great job of impacting the game in other ways, such as crashing the boards. The future Hall of Famer is posting 10.6 rebounds per game in the postseason, including 11 rebounds in Game 1.
For the Lakers to have a chance in Game 3 and the rest of the series, they must win the battle on the glass. The Warriors have Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins, who can all get rebounds, while the Lakers have James, Davis, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Nevertheless, we believe James will be active on the boards as he's gone OVER 9.5 rebounds in five out of his past eight games.
