My, how the tables have turned. Approximately seven years ago, LeBron James and the Cavaliers mounted an unprecedented NBA Finals comeback from a 3-1 deficit to beat Steph Curry and the Warriors. Tonight, Curry and the defending champs are facing a 3-1 hole and win-or-go-home Game 5 against LeBron's Lakers at Chase Center (10 p.m. ET, TNT).
Nothing sells like superstars, and the two modern GOATs have been in vintage form, with Steph dazzling with his jumper and LeBron showcasing his tremendous passing and inside-outside scoring pedigree. We've also seen moments of brilliance from Steph's Splash Bro Klay Thompson, who hit 14 treys between Games 1 and 2, and LeBron's BFF Anthony Davis, who has averaged 22.3 points and 14.5 boards in the series.
But the x-factor so far has been "the others," as Shaq likes to call a team's supporting cast/role players.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
In Game 1, it was the L.A. point guard duo of D'Angelo Russell and Dennis Schroder, who combined for 38 points, nine assists, and five boards. In Game 2, it was Golden State's Draymond Green and JaMychal Green, who both stepped up big time with board-beasting center Kevon Looney battling an illness. Russell poured in another 21 points in Game 3, and then Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker broke out for 36 combined points in Game 4.
Who will come up big for the Warriors or Lakers tonight? Can Curry put the Dubs on his back and keep the reigning champs alive, or will LeBron and company slam the door shut, sending James to his 12th conference championship series? We'll discuss all the odds, trends, and best bets below.
MORE NBA BETTING: MIA-NYK preview
Warriors vs. Lakers Game 5 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Warriors -7.5 (-110) | Lakers +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 225.5 (-115) | UNDER 225.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Warriors -350 | Lakers +260
Oddsmakers clearly don't see the defending champions suffering the gentleman's sweep at the hands of the seven seed! This level of respect for a team down 3-1 is practically unprecedented. Then again, we've never seen someone as special as Steph Curry. The greatest shooter of all time has maintained a postseason career series record of 23-4, easily better than LeBron, MJ, Kareem, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Duncan, and Shaq.
But LeBron has some career playoff distinctions of his own. For one, he has the all-time record for most postseason wins with 181. That's 20 more than Derek Fisher and 24 ahead of Tim Duncan. King James is tied with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most NBA Finals appearances since 1970 (10), and only Abdul-Jabbar has more conference championship appearances (13) than James (11). LeBron also holds the all-time postseason scoring record, with 7,857 points and counting. He's currently 1,870 playoff points ahead of Jordan.
Want to talk three-pointers? We have that covered, too. Curry, Thompson, and James rank first, second, and third, respectively, on the list of all-time playoff three-pointers. Take a look:
| Rank | Player | 3PM |
| 1. | Steph Curry | 611 |
| 2. | Klay Thompson | 497 |
| 3. | LeBron James | 448 |
Sorry for the barrage of stats and records, but I couldn't help myself. The picture deserves to be painted — these are not your typical players, and oddsmakers refuse to be duped into thinking the Splash Brothers deserve to get points at home even though just 13 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the history of the NBA Playoffs.
According to NBA insider Marc Stein, teams that go up 3-1 in a best-of-seven series have a 258-13 record for a winning percentage of 95.2. As the great "Dumb and Dumber" line goes, "So you're saying there's a chance!?"
Keep in mind, that .952 winning percentage is on the series, not Game 5. Far more than 4.8 percent of teams down 3-1 in the playoffs have won Game 5 to extend the series, and Golden State has gone 36-10 at Chase Center since the 2022 NBA season tipped off.
The Warriors have also proven that they can win when the pressure is at its highest. After falling behind 2-0 to the Kings in the first round, Golden State bounced back for three straight victories and won Games 5 and 7 in Sacramento by a combined 27 points. It helps that Curry has averaged 33 points per game immediately following a Warriors playoff loss.
When the Dubs bounce back, they bounce back with authority. Their wins immediately following a loss this postseason have been by scoring margins of 17, 20, and 27, respectively. Nobody wants to see a determined and desperate Curry with everything to lose.
Now, the cynic would say that Golden State has also lost two contests in a row twice this postseason, another thing that has never happened in a Steph Curry playoff run. But do you really expect Los Angeles to hand Curry his third consecutive postseason loss — at Chase Center, no less? Nah, we don't want that smoke. We like Steve Kerr's squad to blitz James, utilize Kevon Looney much more on the interior to battle AD, and throw the zone D at L.A. if it continues to thrive from three-point land.
We might either buy the Lakers two points and bet them -145 at +9.5, or we could trim down the Warriors' spread a bit. You can get it down to -4.5 at -165. We might also forego the full-game spread altogether and just bet Golden State -2.5 in the first quarter (-120). We're also pounding the full-game OVER at 225.5. Both Chase Center contests in this series have finished at 227 total points or higher, and we expect a blisteringly fast pace and a ton of triples.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Lakers 111. The Warriors win (-350), but the Lakers barely cover (+7.5), with the game going OVER the total (225.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Warriors vs. Lakers: Steph Curry OVER 30.5 (-125)
MORE: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
The catalyst to every one of the Warriors' massive postseason wins over the past two years — and throughout the on-again, off-again dynasty years Golden State has enjoyed over the past decade — has been none other than shooting GOAT Steph Curry. He dropped a 50-piece with a side of honey mustard on the Kings in Sacramento to close out Round 1, poured in 34 at TD Garden to seal the Dubs' 2022 NBA Championship over the Celtics, and dropped 31-plus points in five different Game 5s throughout his storied career. We can't possibly bet against this guy at this point. Let's smash the OVER and root for his greatness to take over and extend this series.
