The Warriors host the Kings this evening (8 p.m., ESPN) in a crucial Game 6 that could be the end of a fantastic run for Sacramento. De'Aaron Fox and company had looked earlier in the series like they would be the first opening-round opponent to eliminate Golden State in the Steph Curry era, but the Splash Brothers have rallied back and now it's the Kings who have their backs against the ropes.
Steve Kerr's Warriors may have the older core rotation, but they looked remarkably spry in Game 5. The Dubs scored 99 points through three quarters at Golden 1 Center and had a nine-point cushion going into the final frame. Curry finished with 31 points, the fourth time in the five-game series he has eclipsed 30. Klay Thompson also had it going, pitching in 25. Draymond Green, once again coming off the bench, scored 21 points for the first time since Christmas 2019.
Golden State shot over 52 percent from the floor despite struggling from long range, aided heavily by solid passing (33 assists to SAC's 22) and stingy defense (11 steals, seven blocks compared to SAC's nine and three). The Warriors forced the Kings to commit 19 turnovers, and Kevon Looney once again looked like a modern-day Dennis Rodman with a game-high 22 rebounds.
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But if anyone can come back from a 3-2 deficit on the road, it's the Kings. Sacramento's Coach of the Year winner Mike Brown has had this Sac-town team playing above expectations all season both at home and on the road. The Kings maintained a Western Conference-leading 25-18 road record this season and performed even better ATS in away games (28-15). They were 14-8 ATS as road underdogs, but just 9-11 straight up.
Can Sacramento mount the improbable comeback and beat the Warriors at Chase Center, or will Curry, Thompson, and Green call game, set, match on their home floor and get ready for the winner of the Lakers-Grizzlies game? Let's get right into the odds for this pivotal Game 6 tilt, and discuss our predictions, best bets, and favorite BetMGM prop.
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Warriors vs. Kings odds, picks, predictions, and player props
- Spread: Warriors -7.5 (-110) | Kings +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 236.5 (-110) | UNDER 236.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -300 | Kings +240
Oddsmakers have made Golden State a healthy favorite to close this series out at Chase Center this evening, and we have no reason to argue with that rationale. After all, the Warriors just recorded the first road victory of the series in Game 5, and the defending champs have gone 35-8 at home since the start of the 2022-23 season. That's an .841 winning percentage, for those without a calculator handy, which is the third-best home winning rate in the NBA.
As we said in the intro, Sacramento also maintained the best road record in the West (25-18) and has maintained a whopping 63.6-percent cover rate as road 'dogs. Despite Golden State entering this evening with a 6-3 record against the Kings straight up since the start of the regular season, the Kings have gone 6-3 ATS against the Dubs.
If the Kings were a team that hangs its head and lets its pride get broken, we would probably smash the chalk here and bet the Warriors -7.5 at home for the closeout game. That said, Sacramento has proven all year that it has that dog in it. There exists a collective grit, toughness, and fight that we don't typically see in a young roster with little to no playoff experience from top to bottom.
Before this season, the Warriors beat the doors off their previous three postseason opponents in closeout games. They dismantled the Celtics in Boston in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals, winning by 13. They knocked off Luka Doncic and the Mavs in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals by 10. They steamrolled the Grizzlies by 14 in the Western Conference Semifinals. So, we certainly recognize the possibility that Golden State demolishes the Kings tonight, but we don't expect this young squad to go down without a fight.
Of course, Fox's fractured finger doesn't help matters. The Clutch Player of the Year shot just 9-of-25 from the field in Game 5 (and 3-of-10 from beyond the arc), clearly hampered by the bum digit. After opening the contest sizzling hot as a team and shooting 14-of-27 from the floor and 8-of-12 from distance in the first quarter, Sacramento went on to shoot 28-of-63 from the field and 2-of-22 from long range.
And yet still, the Kings only lost by seven. Brown's squad will make the appropriate adjustments to make this game a contest, namely getting hot-shooting rookie Keegan Murray more involved from start to finish. The No. 4 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft poured in 10 first-quarter points on 4-of-5 shooting including 2-of-2 from three-point land. He never attempted another shot.
We like the Kings to get after it in the opening frame tonight, punching first as they have seemingly all year. Dating back to the end of the regular season, Sacramento has gone 7-3 ATS in the first quarter, so we are all over the Kings' +2.5 at -115 in the opening frame.
As for the full-game spread, we will either buy Sacramento two points to make it +9.5 at -140 or buy the Warriors three points to make it -4.5 at -160. We like the Warriors to win this game at home and close out the series — it's what they do — but we don't love the Kings to get blown out. Nobody in that organization has any reason to hang their heads after the campaign they just put together.
Prediction: Warriors 121, Kings 115. Golden State wins (-300) but Sacramento covers (+7.5) and the game just barely stays UNDER (236.5). The only OVER we would consider in this one is 61.5 (+105) in the first quarter, as it's yielding some spicy plus odds and these teams have poured it on offensively in the opening frames over the past two games (averaging 66 total points per 1st quarter).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Warriors vs. Kings: Kevon Looney OVER 12.5 rebounds
Come on now, how can I avoid Cash Money Looney? This dude's rebounding skills have cashed us on so many props over the past two months I've lost count! He's got 56 boards over the past three games, and at this point, it seems clear that Steve Kerr instructs his squad to let Looney clear the board and then outlet to one of the other four players to initiate the fast break. He's not just the best rebounder on the team; he's also the slowest player in a fast-paced offense. Looney at anything under 14 boards right now is a cheat code, and we'll smash the OVER against a relatively small front court like Sacramento every time.
