Two games into the Kings-Warriors' opening-round series, it seemed like Sacramento had carried over momentum from its fantastic regular-season campaign and would easily knock off the defending champions. But Golden State stormed back in Game 3, with reigning Finals MVP Steph Curry erupting for 36 points to lead his squad to a 114-97 victory despite Draymond Green's one-game suspension. Today we will discuss Game 4 between the Warriors (-8.5) and Kings on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), and make our best bets and predictions for this pivotal Western Conference clash.
MORE: Draymond Green shares thoughts on his one-game suspension
With Green facing discipline for his Game 3 stomp of Domantas Sabonis's chest, many wondered if regular-season rebounding champion Sabonis would own the glass in Game 3. The Kings center did hold his own — he grabbed 16 boards in total — but in fact, it was Warriors big man Kevon Looney who had the career night on the boards. All said, Looney pulled down a 2023 postseason-high 20 rebounds. Golden State had a plus-nine advantage in boards, and a plus-five advantage in offensive rebounds.
The Warriors also — big surprise — launched a ton of three-pointers. Steve Kerr's squad jacked up 50 from deep, connecting on 16 of them. That's not great efficiency by any means, but considering Golden State held the Kings to 11-of-47 from beyond the arc (23.4%), Kerr will take it. Now the pressure is back on Sacramento to get the crucial third win of the series and avoid the Splash Brothers evening the series up with rising confidence going back to Golden 1 Center.
Can Golden State exert its championship DNA and make this a brand-new series? Or will Sacramento move to a commanding 3-1 lead and go back home smelling blood in the water? Let's break down the odds for this crucial Game 4 in San Francisco and then discuss our prediction, best bets, and favorite player prop.
MORE ODDS: Spreads, moneylines, props, parlays — get it all with BetMGM!
Warriors vs. Kings odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Warriors -8.5 (+105) | Kings +8.5 (-125)
- Total: OVER 237.5 (-105) | UNDER 237.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Warriors -350 | Kings +260
The oddsmakers always knew the Warriors still had that dog in them, as BetMGM opened Golden State as a -7.5 favorite for Game 3, dropped the spread down just two points to -5.5 after the league announced the Green suspension, and now lists the home squad as whopping -8.5 favorites in Game 4 with Green back. Kerr's unit has has been masterful at Chase Center all season, now 34-8 for the third-best home winning percentage (.811) in the Association.
But freshly-minted Coach of the Year Mike Brown knows how to win in San Francisco — after all, he was an assistant and even an associate head coach for the Warriors between the years of 2016 and 2022. And Sacramento has many reasons to believe it can pull off the improbable and bag an ever-elusive W at Chase Center. For one, first-annual Clutch Player of the Year De'Aaron Fox, who put up 26/9/9 in Game 3. Then there's Sabonis, who seems like he can grab 15/15 double-doubles in his sleep. And don't forget about former Warrior champion Harrison Barnes, a steady veteran presence on the wing, or underrated pure scorer Malik Monk.
It's the 'others,' as Shaquille O'Neal would say, that need to step up for Brown's squad. We've seen less-than-stellar play from three-point shooter Kevin Huerter, rookie marksman Keegan Murray, backup point guard and lockdown defender Davion Mitchell, and three-and-D igniter Trey Lyles. If one or two of those guys put in a strong performance in Game 4 — and we continue to see production from Sacramento's core four — the Kings could steal Game 4 and Golden 1 might be lighting the beam back home in Sac-town.
Don't hold your breath, though. Golden State in the playoffs is one of the most difficult settings in all of professional sports. The Warriors had never started a playoff series with an 0-2 deficit in the Curry era, and the first two games of this round as well as the Green suspension clearly lit a fire under these guys. It also helps that Andrew Wiggins — who missed a considerable amount of time in the regular-season with family stuff — has shaken the rust off and gotten back to the form he showed the world in the Warriors' 2022 championship run.
The main reasons the Warriors continue to be such a tough out, besides the fact that they shoot 38.9 percent from long-range and average a league-leading 17 treys per game at home: everyone on this team knows its role, and everyone gives 100 percent effort at all times. When your best player (Curry, duh) busts his butt to fight through screens, pressure the ball, make jump-cuts, and free himself up, that level of hustle and commitment rubs off on the rest of the team. That's called silent leadership, and it's a big part of the reason Golden State has hoisted four Larry O'Brien trophies in the past seven years.
The Kings organization, meanwhile, just played its first three playoff games in 17 years. And while Brown's squad went 25-16 in away games during the regular season, they are now just 9-12 as away 'dogs and have plenty of 'others' that look ill-prepared for the pressure of mounting an upset at Chase Center. We're starting to think that if Sacramento pulls off this series — and that's a big if — it will take a Game 7 at Golden 1 Center to do it (and this fanbase knows all about heartache associated from playoff losses to defending champions from California).
While we like the Warriors to even this series up, we would be crazy to bet their -8.5 spread. Sure, Golden State just won Game 3 114-97, but that was just the eighth time in 21 road games since the start of the 2022-23 season that Sacramento failed to cover as road 'dogs. We think the newly-awarded Coach of the Year will make the necessary adjustments to get his team to at least make this a game — and all Fox needs is a glimpse of the lead to make some fourth-quarter magic happen.
We may buy a couple points to ensure Sac-town a more comfortable level of padding (+10.5 at -160), far more comfortable than if we bought Golden State two points (-6.5 at -130). But if you don't like taking on extra juice, just bet the 'dogs +8.5 and, like the Kings faithful have all season, just believe.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Kings 113. The Warriors win (-350), but the Kings cover (+8.5) and the game goes UNDER (237.5). We have no idea why oddsmakers continually list massive totals in this series — sure, Game 1 finished with nearly 250 points scored, but Game 2 maxed out at 220 and Game 3 hit just 211.
Best player prop bet for Warriors vs. Kings: Kevon Looney OVER 10.5 rebounds (+105)
Some may regard this prop selection as 'chasing rebounds,' as Looney grabbed an incredible 20 boards in Game 3 while Draymond served his Adam Silver-issued timeout. But the Warriors big man has been one of the best and most durable rebounders in the league for a couple years now, and he's no stranger to massive games on the boards in the playoffs (he had a 22-board night during Golden State's 2022 postseason blitz). Looney has a knack for finding the ball, and he reads it very well off the rim. He's also downright tougher than Sabonis, and he's the only player in Golden State's core that doesn't put the ball on the floor to initiate fast-breaks. There are systematic reasons as to why Kerr prefers Looney to come down with defensive boards and outlet to transitional ball-handlers — and Looney's contributions on the offensive glass lead to second-chance points that always seem to burn opponents (newsflash: the Splash Brothers don't often miss twice in a row). Looney hauled in nine rebounds on the offensive glass alone in Game 3, so 11 total boards at +105 seems like a great bet to us.
