Despite an uncharacteristically poor shooting night for Steph Curry in Game 5, his odds to win his first-ever NBA Finals MVP increased exponentially from -145 before the game to -350 entering Game 6. Given the low return on investment, is it even worth it to wager on Curry, or should you instead look for value with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, or Andrew Wiggins?
First, let’s look at how Curry’s odds have shifted throughout the series.
Steph Curry’s 2022 NBA Finals MVP odds
With the way the odds are trending, Curry has all but locked up the 2022 NBA Finals MVP assuming the Warriors win one of the next two games. Andrew Wiggins’ consistency and two-way play throughout the Finals makes for an interesting talking point, but how can the 11 media members not vote for a player who’s averaging 30.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals while connecting on five threes per game?
Andrew Wiggins’ 2022 NBA Finals MVP odds
To be fair, a large part of Wiggins’ efficient Game 5 output was due to the attention Curry commands. Curry was consistently face-guarded by the Celtics and rarely got space to get off his shot (even though he can still shoot at an efficient clip when contested).
Wiggins’ downhill aggression on dribble penetration and his ability to cut to the rim resulted in a memorable NBA Finals performance, capped off by an emphatic dunk on Derrick White to all but seal the win. Wiggins has also become a rebounding machine, snatching up 29 boards over the past two games.
However, Wiggins’ overall stats for the series (18.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals) just don’t compare to Curry’s. He might steal a vote like Fred VanVleet did in 2019, but barring something crazy happening in the last two games, this is still Curry’s trophy to lose. As such, it’s not worth betting Wiggins’ at +1800 unless you already have a Curry ticket and you’re just hedging against that “something crazy” we just mentioned.
2022 NBA Finals MVP betting strategy
Despite everything we just said about Curry’s odds, laying this type of juice to bet on him isn’t worthwhile considering he got up to +200 (implied probability 33.33 percent) when the Warriors trailed 2-1 after Boston’s 116-100 win in Game 3. Curry’s price to win MVP is a tad shorter than Golden State’s price to win the NBA Finals (-400, implied probability 80 percent), but it’s still too steep of a price to bet on right now.
If this series heads back to San Francisco, Curry’s odds to win the MVP will likely coincide with the Warriors' moneyline price. Golden State’s moneyline price has hovered around the -165 mark (implied probability 62.26 percent), and at that price, it would be worthwhile to bet on Steph to win his first Finals MVP.
With the Celtics listed as 3.5-point home favorites and -165 on the moneyline to win Game 6, per Bet MGM, now is the time to wager on either Jayson Tatum (+375) or Jaylen Brown (+2500). Their respective odds will likely be shorter after a win on Thursday night, so get in on the action ahead of Game 6 if you think this series will go seven.
It’s possible that another Celtic, such as Marcus Smart (+15000) or Al Horford (+25000), could swoop in to steal the award with back-to-back monster performances, but chances are, if Boston wins the title, it will be on the backs of its two young superstars. Tatum’s stats are slightly better than Brown’s (21.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists for Brown compared to 23.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists for Tatum), but this is still a close enough race that the significantly longer odds for Brown make him the better value of the two.
Updated 2022 NBA Finals MVP odds: Before Game 6
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
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