When we previewed the Game 3 showdown between the Suns and Nuggets, we noted how dominant Denver had been through seven playoff games but warned bettors (a) to never doubt Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and (b) to be cautiously pessimistic about the Nugs' road defense in the postseason. When all was said and done, Book and KD dominated en route to a much-needed victory and we correctly predicted every facet of our best bets and advice.
Like Phoenix, we'll be looking to ride that momentum into Game 4 tonight (8 p.m. ET, TNT). Today we will discuss some key betting trends and reveal our final score prediction, best bets, and our favorite BetMGM player props going into the Suns-Nuggets' Sunday evening Western Conference clash.
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Suns vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns -1.5 (-105) | Nuggets +1.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 227.5 (-105) | UNDER 227.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Suns -125 | Nuggets +105
Oddsmakers clearly like Denver's chances of bouncing back after the Booker and KD Show took over Game 3. Phoenix's home spread has been knocked down from -3.5 on Friday to -1.5 today, with a -125 moneyline that implies just a 55 percent win probability. In sportsbooks' eyes, this is basically a toss-up after Denver allowed two dudes to combine for 86 points and still only lost by seven.
But Phoenix might have found something. We told you the other day that Suns coach Monty Williams is one of the best coaches when it comes to adjustments, so it came as no surprise when Cam Payne, T.J. Warren, and Jock Landale saw big usage boosts and served as a combined +33 on the night.
It also came as no surprise that Phoenix could battle better down low and get higher-percentage shots off with a taller lineup. Denver had been asserting its size and strength in its 6-1 postseason start, but in Game 3 we saw the Nugs looking undersized — most notably the perimeter trio of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, and Jeff Green.
And Denver's defensive woes in the postseason bear repeating — Mike Malone's squad is just 9-18 in playoff away games during the Jokic era. Even worse, the Nuggets are 3-11 on the road in the postseason between mid-September 2020 and today. They have now dropped all three road games to Phoenix since the 2021 Playoffs, they fell in all three contests against the Warriors at Chase Center last year, and they even lost one of two at Target Center against the hapless Wolves in the first round of this postseason.
We still think Denver will win this series — Denver went 34-7 at home this season and 5-0 at Ball Arena so far during the playoffs, and Jokic is just too damn strong for the Suns to hold him, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. off in four-of-seven games.
But we can't possibly bet against KD and Book at home after what we saw them do in Game 3. Durant was one late missed free throw away from he and Booker each dropping 40-burgers, a feat fit for kings. This series just feels like it's going seven, and we wouldn't be surprised in the least if Booker and Durant put the Valley on their back once again this evening.
Prediction: Suns 117, Nuggets 112. The Suns (-1.5) cover the spread, with the game going slightly OVER the total (227.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Suns vs. Nuggets: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope UNDER 9.5 points (-105)
KCP had been a strong part of Denver's supporting cast all season, but he struggled mightily in Game 3. The biggest problem: he's undersized at the three at 6-5, 205, and he's overmatched at two-guard against Booker, an underrated defender who brings out the clamps for the postseason. And if Booker assumes the point guard position and Phoenix brings in Josh Okogie or Torrey Craig at the two, good lord. KCP just doesn't figure into the scoring equation while the big dogs are swinging at each other — he's relying on a few catch-and-shoot opportunities and not getting much else beyond that. We feel strongly that Caldwell-Pope will be held to single-digits for the second consecutive game and fourth time this postseason.
