Late in the second quarter of their home loss to the Bucks on Nov. 15, the Raptors looked to start a rally after trailing by double digits for the majority of the first half.
Down by 14 with under two minutes remaining, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam used their length to force a Damian Lillard turnover, resulting in a fast break opportunity that would cut into the deficit to sway some momentum back in the Raptors' direction. And while the moment had promise, the opposite occurred.
Jakob Poeltl, who stole the pass and initiated the break, found Dennis Schröder, who then hit ahead to a breaking Siakam while Barnes called for a lob. The break, however, devolved as quickly as it came about. The timing between Barnes and Siakam was off, leading to a turnover that sparked an 11-2 run for the Bucks, who took a 23-point lead into the break.
The play boiled down to a routine miscommunication, but the mishap is a microcosm of the dynamic between Toronto's two best players this season. When looking at Barnes and Siakam, it would be disingenuous to say that the two are identical players. But when analyzing some of their strengths, it's hard to ignore the parallels.
Siakam is at his best when he can rebound, push the pace in transition, run the open floor, slash and create for himself and others in the half-court. Barnes is at his best when he can rebound, push the pace in transition, run the open floor, slash and … you see where this is going.
All in all, it begs the question of whether or not the two can coexist on a successful team.
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The complicated fit between Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam
Because of the overlap in strengths, there seems to be a disconnect in the duo's ability to complement one another.
On the offensive end, anyway.
While Barnes and Siakam have proven to be a dynamic duo defensively, the body of work up to this point of the season offers very little evidence that both can fully thrive offensively in the same game.
To open the season, Barnes got out to such a hot start that The Sporting News' Steph Noh took a closer look at just how sustainable the 22-year-old's play was. Through Toronto's first seven games, Barnes averaged 22.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.1 steals, putting each of his strengths on display on a nightly basis.
That same seven-game span saw Siakam mostly struggle, averaging 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists while shooting 41.2 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3 — shooting splits that were partially inflated by a 26-point performance on 9-of-13 shooting against the Bucks.
Outside of that game, there were a number of conversations about how to get Siakam more involved. On Oct. 28 specifically, plenty of eyebrows were raised when Siakam attempted just eight field goals while seeing 36 minutes in a loss to the 76ers.
| Barnes | Siakam | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| USG% | 25.0 | 20.8 |
| PPG | 22.6 | 15.4 |
| RPG | 9.9 | 6.1 |
| APG | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| FGM | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| FGA | 16.7 | 13.9 |
| FG% | 51.3 | 41.2 |
| 3PM | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 3PA | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| 3FG% | 42.1 | 33.3 |
In the eighth game of the season, things changed. Siakam broke out for 31 points (on 15-of-25 shooting), 12 rebounds and five assists in an impressive road win over the Mavericks. Barnes, on the other hand, shot just 4 of 15 from the field, finishing with a then-season-low 14 points to go along with 14 rebounds, seven assists and four steals.
Barnes' star was still on full display in Dallas as he was able to impact multiple facets of the game on an off-shooting night. But with respect to offensive production, the pendulum has now swung to where Barnes' efficiency and potency have largely declined as Siakam's has gotten back to what the Raptors are accustomed to.
Look at the scoring and field goal attempts, and you'll notice that Barnes and Siakam have essentially traded places since the first seven games.
| Barnes | Siakam | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| USG% | 21.9 | 27.9 |
| PPG | 17.1 | 22.6 |
| RPG | 8.6 | 7.7 |
| APG | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| FGM | 6.1 | 8.9 |
| FGA | 14.8 | 17.5 |
| FG% | 41.2 | 51.0 |
| 3PM | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 3PA | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| 3FG% | 35.1 | 9.8 |
Getting both Barnes and Siakam at the peak of their powers simultaneously would be ideal for the Raptors, but history is making that prospect seem like less of a reality. Is there a model of success that includes both of them at the core?
Much like their fit, the answer is complicated.
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Can Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam coexist?
In the two-plus years that the duo have been teammates, the Raptors have posted a 79-71 record in games that both Barnes and Siakam suit up. Toronto has made the postseason twice in the Barnes-Siakam era, finishing fifth in the East after the 2021-22 season and getting eliminated in the Play-In Tournament after a ninth-place finish in the 2022-23 season.
Depending on the context of how success is evaluated, the fact that the Raptors have advanced to the postseason shouldn't be viewed as a negative. Conversely, it must be acknowledged that during the first two years of the pairing of Barnes and Siakam, Fred VanVleet was near the top — and sometimes at the top — of the pecking order, playing at an All-Star level in 2022.
Year 3 is the first since VanVleet's departure and there are no longer questions around the pecking order. The counting stats may have flip-flopped, but a better indicator of success and compatibility are the advanced figures.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Raptors are a net positive when both Siakam and Barnes are on the floor, but it's not a great sign that they're only a slight positive.
| Players on | Players off | Minutes | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating |
| Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes | — | 446 | 113.2 | 111.3 | 1.9 |
| Scottie Barnes | Pascal Siakam | 213 | 105.6 | 116.1 | -10.5 |
| Pascal Siakam | Scottie Barnes | 206 | 115.8 | 112.6 | 3.2 |
As simple as it sounds, it's important to remember that Siakam and Barnes are just two players. Whether or not they can coexist also largely depends on the three players they're sharing the floor with.
Since the Raptors fully leaned into assembling rangy players listed between 6-7 and 6-9, positional overlap was intended to be a feature, not a bug. The result, however, has been a clunky half-court offense and a lack of shooting that has often spelled the team's demise.
Quite frankly, it's enthralling to imagine what a lineup of Barnes, Siakam, a rim protector and two deadeye shooters would look like. In 44 minutes this season, lineups featuring Barnes, Siakam, Jakob Poeltl and Gary Trent Jr. have posted an offensive rating of 119.3 and a defensive rating of 96.7, a small sample size that isn't exactly sustainable but gives an idea of what could work.
And while the formula is clear, timing adds another layer of complication.
Barnes is 22 and still gradually improving towards his peak, which is likely a few years down the road. Because this is his third season, Barnes is in line for a lucrative contract extension that will kick in during his fifth year.
Siakam, on the other hand, will turn 30 this season and is still in his prime, but it's unclear how much longer that will last. Complicating matters further is the fact that Siakam has been in a number of trade rumors, a product of his looming unrestricted free agency.
As it stands, Toronto has committed to this duo, a pairing that has terrifying potential on both ends of the floor. All signs indicate that Barnes and Siakam can coexist, but with the number of moving parts standing in the way, all that's left to wonder is if they'll have the opportunity to
