The Rockets will look to take another big step toward completing their rebuild at the 2024 NBA Draft on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/TSN). The BetMGM odds for their pick at No. 3 overall suggest they already know which direction they will be headed.
Houston has assembled a mixture of intelligence and tenacity over its multi-year build since James Harden's departure. Former Celtics head coach Ime Udoka leads the charge with skilled point guard Fred VanVleet, budding big-man star Alperen Sengun, and aggressive finisher Jalen Green.
MORE NBA DRAFT: SN's final mock draft | News, leaks, trade buzz | Who goes No. 1?
Still, Houston has plenty of holes, many of which the third-overall pick should be able to help fill. The key to betting the draft is knowing how to analyze those needs, how to assess certain prospects' fits in the team's system, and how to read the updated odds on BetMGM and other major sportsbooks.
Let's do just that, and reveal the BetMGM odds for the third overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. We'll then discuss which player makes for the best bet to land in Houston ahead of Wednesday night.
2024 NBA Draft odds: 3rd overall pick
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Player | Odds |
| Reed Sheppard | -190 |
| Donovan Clingan | +300 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | +1200 |
| Stephon Castle | +1600 |
| Alex Sarr | +2200 |
2024 NBA Draft odds: Betting favorite
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky (-190)
Sheppard would immediately pay dividends for head coach Ime Udoka in Houston, because he's a tremendous shooter with unselfish traits and a high basketball IQ. He makes the players around him better, he can shoot off screens or on pull-ups, and he's extremely coachable. As such, he's easily the odds-on favorite to land with the Rockets at No. 3.
The downside? He's only a little over 6-1. However, he has a 6-3 wingspan and a proven ability to get off his shot on one end of the floor and capably defend on the other. Udoka would likely be able to mold him into an even better defender and an even more versatile scorer.
When we talk about elite three-point shooting, we mean it. Sheppard hit over 52 percent of his shots beyond the arc last season, which will make him the first lottery pick since Glen Rice to shoot over 51 percent from deep in their final year in college. Sheppard also ranked first in the SEC in steals and shot over 83 percent from the line, so there are plenty of reasons to love him for a young Rockets team with solid long-term promise.
MORE: Why there's no real consensus at No. 1
2024 NBA Draft odds: Dark horse
Donovan Clingan, UConn (+300)
Udoka — and for that matter, the Rockets — have demonstrated a fondness for dual-big systems. As such, it stands to reason that Houston could add the big-bodied, shot-blocking Clingan to a big-man room that already includes emerging star Alperen Sengun, 2022 No. 3 pick Jabari Smith Jr., and veteran center Steven Adams.
That said, it would be a surprise if Udoka and the Rockets' brass went away from Sheppard here. Houston just barely exceeded 35 percent from three last season, and its collective inability to stretch the floor often resulted in stagnant offensive sets and careless turnovers. Sheppard would help that issue — Clingan would arguably compound it, unless Sengun further developed his outside range.
The Rockets also ranked bottom-10 in free-throw shooting last season, so a guy like Clingan who shot 55.8 percent at the stripe would make that poor situation even worse. He's the only logical "dark-horse" for this particular exercise, but it's tough to find the logic in Houston picking Clingan over Sheppard.
MORE: Why Clingan has been linked to No. 1 pick
2024 NBA Draft odds: Sleeper
Stephon Castle, UConn (+1600)
Castle has been increasingly linked to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs, but there exists a small fraction of a chance Houston scoops him up at No. 3 right before Pop. What's not to like about Castle? He's a high-IQ, uber-athletic floor general who can defend multiple positions and make the players around him better.
Castle probably wouldn't take over lead-guard duties from Fred VanVleet immediately, but he would certainly learn from FVV's vision and Jalen Green's aggressiveness. He would also be an immediate favorite of Udoka, who appreciates cerebral playmakers and high-impact perimeter defenders more than the majority of modern-day coaches. If you're betting a sleeper to go at No. 3, Castle seems like the best target for a very modest wager.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >
