What are Raptors' NBA Playoff, Play-In Tournament chances? Breaking down Toronto's odds, potential opponents

Scott Rafferty

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What are Raptors' NBA Playoff, Play-In Tournament chances? Breaking down Toronto's odds, potential opponents image

The final week of the 2022-23 regular season has arrived.

While some teams have already clinched a playoff berth and have an idea of who they could be facing in the first round, there are still a number of teams jockeying for positioning and fighting for their Play-In lives, like the Raptors.

The Raptors have built enough distance between themselves and the Wizards to earn a spot in the Play-In. What remains to be seen is where they finish in the Eastern Conference standings, whether they'll have to win one or two Play-In games to make the playoffs and, of course, who they will face.

NBA odds are available at BetMGM throughout the year.

From NBA Playoff futures like NBA Championship odds to weekly player props, there’s something for everyone.

Where Raptors rank in updated Eastern Conference Play-In standings

The Raptors currently have a one-game lead over the Bulls in 10th place. They could still move up to eighth or seventh depending on how the final week of the regular season plays out for them, the Hawks and the Heat.

As detailed here, there is a big difference between finishing in seventh or eighth compared to ninth or 10th. Whereas teams Nos. 7 and 8 will have two opportunities to win one Play-In game, teams Nos. 9 and 10 have to win two Play-In games to make the playoffs.

If the Raptors do make it out of the Play-In Tournament, they'd likely face one of the Bucks, Celtics or 76ers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Seed Team Record Games Back
1. Bucks* 57-22 —
2. Celtics* 54-25 3
3. 76ers* 52-27 5
4. Cavaliers* 50-30 7.5
5. Knicks* 46-33 11
6. Nets 43-36 14
7. Heat 42-37 15
8. Hawks 40-39 17
9. Raptors** 40-39 17
10. Bulls** 38-41 19
— Pacers 34-45 23
— Wizards 34-45 23
— Magic 34-45 22.5
— Hornets 26-54 31.5
— Pistons 16-63 41

*clinched NBA Playoff berth

** clinched Play-In berth

Eliminated from NBA Playoff contention: Pacers, Wizards, Magic, Hornets, Pistons

What are the Raptors' NBA Playoff and Play-In Tournament chances?

Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report is based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

That currently gives the Raptors a 36.5 percent chance of finishing at No. 8, a 39.4 percent chance of finishing at No. 9, and a 22.4 percent chance of finishing at No. 10.

The Raptors made the playoffs in 47.4 percent of Basketball Reference's simulations. FiveThirtyEight's forecast is slightly lower, giving Toronto a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Jimmy Butler and Pascal Siakam
(Getty Images)

Raptors tiebreakers and head-to-head records with Bulls, Hawks and Heat

As things currently stand, the Raptors would have to defeat the Bulls in the first round of the Play-In Tournament and then either the Heat or Hawks in the second round to make the NBA Playoffs.

Here's how the Raptors fared against each team this season...

Bulls (2-1)

Nov. 6: Raptors 113, Bulls 104

Without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet led the Raptors to victory with a 30-point, 11-assist double-double.

Nov. 7: Bulls 111, Raptors 97

Zach LaVine scored 30 points in a blowout win over the Raptors, who were without Siakam once again.

Feb. 28: Raptors 104, Bulls 98

The Raptors overcame a poor shooting night by dominating the Bulls on the offensive glass (19) and forcing 19 turnovers.

Hawks (1-2)

Oct. 31: Raptors 139, Hawks 109

Siakam's 31-point, 12-rebound double-double powered the Raptors to a 30-point win.

Nov. 19: Hawks 124, Raptors 122 (OT)

Trae Young posted game-highs of 33 points and 12 assists, but rookie AJ Griffin played the hero with a game-winner in overtime.

Jan. 14: Hawks 114, Raptors 103

Young and Dejounte Murray combined for 56 points as the Hawks clinched their season series with the Raptors.

Heat (3-1)

Oct. 22: Heat 112, Raptors 109

A near triple-double from Siakam wasn't enough as Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 24 points and Max Strus contributed with 20 points off the bench.

Oct. 24: Raptors 98, Heat 90

The Raptors outscored the Heat 27-14 in the fourth quarter to come away with a comeback win.

Nov. 16: Raptors 112, Heat 104

O.G. Anunoby recorded his first 30-point game of the season and pulled down 10 rebounds to lead the Raptors to victory.

March 28: Raptors 106, Heat 92

Scottie Barnes dished out a career-best 12 assists as the Raptors took advantage of the Heat being without Butler.

MORE: Explaining tiebreaker rules ahead of 2023 NBA Playoffs

Raptors remaining 2022-23 schedule

Here are the final games remaining on Toronto's schedule:

Date Opponent Time (ET)
April 5 at Celtics 7:30 p.m.
April 7 at Celtics 7:30 p.m.
April 9 vs. Bucks 1 p.m.

Scott Rafferty

Scott Rafferty Photo

 

Scott Rafferty is an experienced NBA journalist who first started writing for The Sporting News in 2017. There are few things he appreciates more than a Nikola Jokic no-look pass, Klay Thompson heat check or Giannis Antetokounmpo eurostep. He's a member of the NBA Global team.