After coming up short in the Play-In Tournament, the Raptors' focus shifted to an offseason that will be highlighted by a coaching search, a transformative free agency period and the NBA Draft.
Before the draft comes, all eyes will be on the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, which will determine the order of the draft's top 14 picks, and, most notably, which team will win the No. 1 overall pick, which is expected to be used to select French wunderkind Victor Wembanyama.
After finishing with a 41-41 record in the 2022-23 season, the Raptors don't have great odds to land the No. 1 pick, but they do have a slight chance. And history has shown that all you need is a slight chance.
Ahead of the lottery, The Sporting News breaks down each potential outcome for the Raptors, who will be making just their sixth lottery selection in the last 15 years.
MORE: 2023 NBA Draft prospects who would be perfect for Raptors
Raptors NBA Draft 2023 lottery odds
The Raptors finished with the second-best record among the 14 teams that did not qualify for the 2023 NBA Playoffs. As such, Toronto has a 1.0 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft and a 4.8 percent chance of jumping into the top four.
(via Tankathon)
| Seed | Team | Top four pick | No. 1 pick |
| 1. | Pistons | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| 2. | Rockets | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| 3. | Spurs | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| 4. | Hornets | 48.1% | 12.5% |
| 5. | Trail Blazers | 42.1% | 10.5% |
| 6. | Magic | 37.2% | 9.0% |
| 7. | Pacers | 29.4% | 6.8% |
| 8. | Wizards | 29.0% | 6.7% |
| 9. | Jazz | 20.3% | 4.5% |
| 10. | Mavericks | 13.9% | 3.0% |
| 11. | Magic (via Bulls)* | 8.5% | 1.8% |
| 12. | Thunder | 8.0% | 1.7% |
| 13. | Raptors | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| 14. | Pelicans | 2.4% | 0.5% |
* Chicago's first-round pick is top four protected
Since the weighted lottery system was adopted in 1990, the largest lottery upset came in 1993, when the Magic won the No. 1 pick despite having a 1.5 percent probability to do so.
If the Raptors were to win this year's No. 1 pick, it would be a lottery upset of historic proportions.
MORE: Why Victor Wembanyama is considered best NBA Draft prospect since LeBron James
Raptors' NBA Draft pick odds
Based on the weighted lottery system, the Raptors can only select at six different places in this year's draft, with 13th being the most likely selection by far.
Here's a breakdown of where the Raptors can pick in this year's draft:
| Pick | Odds |
| 1 | 1.0% |
| 2 | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% |
| 5-12 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 92.9% |
| 14 | 2.3% |
Raptors future NBA Draft picks, detailed
Raptors 2023 NBA Draft picks
The Raptors currently have one pick in the 2023 NBA Draft — their own first-round pick.
Toronto's second-round pick will be made by San Antonio as part of the recent trade that sent Jakob Poeltl back to the Raptors.
Raptors 2024 NBA Draft picks
The Raptors do not control any picks in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Toronto's first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft will likely go to San Antonio as part of the Poeltl trade as it is top six protected. The Raptors' second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft has been rerouted to the LA Clippers after it was originally sent to Memphis as part of the 2019 trade that sent Marc Gasol to Toronto.
Raptors NBA Draft Lottery history
Since their inaugural season in 1995, the Raptors have made 16 selections in the NBA Draft Lottery. Toronto has selected first overall just once, taking Andrea Bargnani with the No. 1 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft after entering the lottery with the fifth-best odds.
In 2021, the Raptors moved up three spots in the NBA Draft Lottery, using the No. 4 overall pick to select Scottie Barnes, who would go on to win Rookie of the Year.
| Year | Pre-Lottery position | Pick | Pick change | Pick |
| 2021 | 7 | 4 | +3 | Scottie Barnes |
| 2016* | 9 | 9 | 0 | Jakob Poeltl |
| 2012 | 8 | 8 | 0 | Terrence Ross |
| 2011 | 3 | 5 | -2 | Jonas Valanciunas |
| 2010 | 13 | 13 | 0 | Ed Davis |
| 2009 | 9 | 9 | 0 | DeMar DeRozan |
| 2006 | 5 | 1 | +4 | Andrea Bargnani |
| 2005 | 7 | 7 | 0 | Charlie Villanueva |
| 2004 | 8 | 8 | 0 | Rafael Araujo |
| 2003 | 3 | 4 | -1 | Chris Bosh |
| 1999 | 11 | 12 | -1 | Aleksandar Radojevic |
| 1999* | 4 | 5 | -1 | Jonathan Bender** |
| 1998 | 2 | 4 | -2 | Antawn Jamison** |
| 1997 | 9 | 9 | 0 | Tracy McGrady |
| 1996 | 3 | 2 | +1 | Marcus Camby |
| 1995 | — | 7 | — | Damon Stoudamire |
*Denotes pick acquired via trade.
**Draft pick never appeared in a game with the Raptors.
