In the nightcap of Monday's NBA Playoffs doubleheader, the top-seeded Nuggets (-4.5) aim to take a 2-0 series lead on the fourth-seeded Suns (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT). The Nuggets looked the part of a one-seed in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup, notching a comfortable 125-107 victory.
In the win, Jamal Murray continued his impressive playoff run, scoring a game-high 34 points on 13-of-24 shooting. Murray also knocked in six-of-10 three-point attempts, helping his team sink 43.2 percent of their threes (16-of-37). Despite entering the series as slight underdogs, the Nuggets (-165) now sit as the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals ahead of Game 2.
Phoenix was able to rely on its offense to mask some of its defensive issues against the shorthanded Clippers in the first round, but against a more complete Nuggets defense, it remains to be seen if Monty Williams' crew can lock down on the defensive end. The Suns currently hold the third-worst defensive rating (118.2) and defensive rebounding rate (65.9 percent) this postseason, and although their starting five contains two of the league's best pure scorers, their championship hopes will go down in flames if they're unable to get stops when it matters most.
Will the Nuggets go up 2-0, or can the Suns get enough stops to even up this best-of-seven? Below, we'll break down Monday's Nuggets-Suns matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Nuggets vs. Suns odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Nuggets -4.5 (-105); Suns +4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 228.5 (-115); UNDER 228.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -175; Suns +145
Denver sits as 4.5-point favorites after easily covering as 3.5-point home chalk in Game 1, so a one-point adjustment entering Game 2 feels justified. Kevin Durant (29 points, 12-of-19 FG) and Devin Booker (27 points, 10-of-19 FG) still got theirs, but in today's NBA, teams simply won't win when getting outscored by 27 points from three-point range.
We should expect some three-point regression from the Nuggets tonight, as it's unlikely they continue their 43.2 percent shooting from deep. Even when factoring in a rougher shooting performance, Denver still holds a sizeable advantage in the rebounding category. The Nuggets were +8 in offensive rebounds in Game 1, with back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic leading the team with eight offensive boards himself. Jokic's matchup advantage against DeAndre Ayton could lend itself to another solid rebounding night for the superstar center.
Additionally, the Suns' inferior second unit is really what's holding the team back, as Booker, Durant, and Chris Paul essentially have to play 40 minutes each if Phoenix has any shot of reaching the conference finals. It's not to say that Phoenix's big three isn't capable, but having to play that much against a Denver bunch with a reliable bench makes taking down the top seed that much tougher.
Betting against a Nuggets' team that owns a 38-7 record straight up along with a 28-16-1 ATS mark at home is tough to do, even when matched up against a star-studded Suns bunch. The Suns' inability to get production from their second unit coupled with another poor rebounding night results in the top-seeded Nuggets going up 2-0.
Prediction: Nuggets 116, Suns 110. The Nuggets (-4.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (228.5)
Best player prop bet for Nuggets vs. Suns: Nikola Jokic OVER 13.5 rebounds (-125)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jokic couldn't be contained on the glass in Game 1, ending his night with 19 total rebounds (eight offensive, 11 defensive). Even with his rebound prop already baking in 13.5 rebounds, we're expecting the Joker to once again dominate a Suns' bunch allowing the third-worst opponent offensive rebounding rate this postseason. We could see Jokic rack up close to 10 offensive rebounds, which would make eclipsing 13.5 total rebounds well within reach.
